Saturday's second race at Turfway Park is a six-and-one-half furlong sprint for 3-year-olds & up that have never won three races. The racing surface has been very fair to all running styles at this meet, and most post positions have had their share of winners. As always, when dealing with cheaper horses, current condition and a trouble-free trip are very important factors.
In this field, there is enough early speed to guarantee a realistic pace, but among the top contenders, only MARAUDER NATION appears to need to lead to win. He was the 9-5 favorite vs. this kind in his last start, engaged in a hot pace duel early, and faded to finish 3rd. He hails from to stable which wins at a 31% clip, returns with a rider who got acquainted with him in his last start, and has certainly displayed enough ability to be beat these with a top effort and good trip.
STIG appears to be the most consistent deep closer in the field. He finished 3rd vs. better in his last start, won his two previous races, and is sent out by a stable that wins 29% with horses dropping two or more class levels. He figures to be rolling in the stretch, so a fast early pace and trouble-free trip could put him in the winners' circle. Exotic players and show bettors take notice.
CURLY is the real question mark in the field. He is taking a big class drop for his first start since September, and his recent workouts have been OK. However, he shows no sprints in his last 10 races and is bred to go much farther, so this could be a prep for something longer in the near future.
BIG ROCKIN' DADDY finished almost two lengths behind STIG in his last start, is also dropping in class, and he should get a much better trip today. He gets a big edge in pace figures off that race, is drawn outside the other speed, and has proven that he can win from just off the pace. Things should work out perfectly for him if he is good enough.
This race poses some intriguing guestions for serious handicappers and should be ample proof that a field needn't be filled with classy stakes horses to be very interesting...and potentially profitable.
Paul Skelton is currently the premiere handicapper for the acclaimed
Thoroughbred Insiders Group. He is a proven a specialist at the major Midwestern tracks, including Turfway Park, Arlington Park, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, Keeneland, and Oaklawn Park.
