Saturday’s 8th race at Turfway Park is a one-mile event featuring older $5,000 claimers which have not won a race in six months. Many handicappers make a serious financial mistake when they barely glance at races like this and go on to spend the majority of their handicapping time on the marquee events around the country. While I feel that maiden races offer the best chance to get a nice price on an easy winner, these “cheap claiming races” often run a close second.
There are several reasons for this, and I’ll briefly touch on just two: A good trip becomes much more important in these races; if a stakes horse is “stopped” during a race, it may quickly get back in gear. If one of these horses runs into traffic trouble, you’ll probably throw some tickets away. A horse may lag behind the field early, swing wide and run by everything in the stretch, or it may be close early and draw out through the stretch, but those which figure to be racing in traffic figure to have problems.
When a classy horse runs a big race, it will usually run pretty well in its next start. When cheaper horses, especially cheaper, older horses run a big race, a poor effort is probably in the near future.
In this race, three horses should get the bulk of the betting action. Dancing Don has been facing a bit better and may be the most consistent horse in the race. Dirty Water was even-money vs. this kind in his last start, and even though he was sent out by an absolute trainer, his was dismal. Pray Tell has the top recent speed figure off his Jan. 2nd race, but he regressed sharply vs. better in his last race. The big class drop may help today, but it could also signal serious problems.
The sleeper in the field could be Mixed Message. He hasn’t raced since August, has won off layoffs in the past and has an attractive workout pattern. He has been working about every 10 days, with one 21 day gap, so a workout may have been missed by the clockers. I could have been the best of the pattern. He draws the rail, has plenty of speed to hold his position, and should be a decent price.
Paul Skelton is currently the premiere handicapper for the acclaimed
Thoroughbred Insiders Group. He is a proven a specialist at the major Midwestern tracks, including Turfway Park, Arlington Park, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, Keeneland, and Oaklawn Park.
