|
Updated: Dec-25-2009
Created: Dec-25-2009
Holiday Cheer Stakes (Handicapping done before day of-race scratches)
A Handicapper’s Delight! You’ve got to look at a lot of factors to dope this race out. The conditions spotlight the classiest horses right off the bat: Preference is (1) Group/Graded Winners, (2) Stakes Winners, and (3) Highest total earnings in 2009.
Graded Winners: 2 CONNECTIONS, 4 ACCREDIT. After winning in Canada over TWO years ago, CONNECTIONS has had to drop down into the claiming ranks to win again—after only two races this year. A grand coup in the making? Not with my money! ACCREDIT is a confirmed need-to-lead horse and will be definitely be challenged by others early on in today’s race.
Stakes Winners: 7 GOLDEN COUNTRY, 9 HARLAN STREET. GOLDEN COUNTRY has run respectably in races with purses near or above today’s, and HARLAN STREET has done the same.
Highest Earnings: What a range! $16,100 (1 FORESTRY GOLD) to $123,500 (10 AGASTACHE)
SELECTIONS:
9 – HARLAN STREET
10 – AGASTACHE
TIE – 3 TIMBUCTO and 8 DYNAMITE BOB
ANALYSIS: Eyeball the running positions and it’s easy to see the race has a lot of early speed. A computer analysis of the pace picture, however, says “unknown.” However, with the need-to-lead histories of 3 TIMBUCTO and 4 ACCREDIT, the race sets up for a presser or a closer who can stay close behind. 9 HARLAN STREET has good numbers and good odds. Why am I not considering 5 FLAVOR? Price! As the ML favorite, he will certainly not get the odds a horse that has won his last 4 races should get. Death to the chalk!
10 – AGASTACHE is 6 for 11 in the money this year, in the top two money earning spots in this race, and has a workout pattern that screams out that the barn is going to be trying hard. Outside position in this field at the distance at this track is not a plus, so the pick is to place for this runner.
TIE for SHOW:
3 – TIMBUCTO is 8-11 in the money, but against much cheaper stock after springtime of this year. He is, however, 7-12 in the money at Turfway Park. A horse-for-course with consistency at several distances on different surfaces is a good show bet.
8 – DYNAMITE BOB will be dangerous as a possible closer, but as a show bet, he is solid, showing a nice mid-race move second back while holding position to the finish, plus an even race far outside in his last outing, PLUS an 8 for 17 in the money record this year.
LONGSHOT -- 7 -- GOLDEN COUNTRY at 10-1 or better is worth a flyer.
Good luck and Good Cheer!
----
George Kaywood is the owner of Handicapping.com, helping horseplayers sharpen their game since 1996.
|
