Handicapping before day-of-race scratches
The most important handicapping factor in two- year-old handicapping is simply an understanding of the nature of this type of race. Two-year-old races are races of experimentation. These are races in which owners, trainers, and jockeys literally find out whether or not a horse is a race horse, and if it is, how much work will be needed to train the runner into a useful horse, if not a champion.
Having said that, this race shapes up to be a very exciting one, if for no other reason than there are SIX need-to-lead horses in the field: Henry’s Posse, Opportunity’s Here (based on its only race), Mission Vow, Oceans of Honey, and Pollard’s Babe, and Henry’s Posse. (Based on a positional analysis of their best races).
Selections:
7- For Royalty
12 – Henry’s Posse
3 – Zippy Larry
FOR ROYALTY should be a pretty good value bet, and shows a stamina-building workout series that screams out that the trainer has been waiting for the right sprint stakes race. A key to use in any exotics you may consider.
HENRY’S POSSE needs to relax a bit but has great pace numbers. Since it’s all about value, I’ll spot her for a piece of the action. This is a great example of experimenting—look at the shipping record, and latest two works, obviously meant to build a little stamina. A shot at a price.
ZIPPY LARRY will go off at a great price and has a solid shot. Ignore the last race turf experiment at a questionable distance and you have a horse that shows a closing tendency in sprints—something you can’t ignore in a field of many need-to-lead horses. The public tends to ignore good moves in poorer-finish races, and tosses out many well-meant horses at great prices, especially in two-year-old races. Improvement is hard to predict precisely...but that's why they call it gambling!
Exotics: Tread very lightly. Too large a field with just too many unknowns that can hit the board. Such is 2-yo racing, even in stakes.