My approach in handicapping begins with determining if there is real value in a race—if my projected (computed) odds show horses with above random chances of winning at very good prices. If I spot some, then I handicap looking at other factors.
RACE 10
I will definitely try to buck likely favorite Inca King here, as a couple of others have good shots at good prices. They are the outside horses, 9 Pop Tart, and 10 Your Round, who look to me to be in condition, although many will say they’re a little out of form. 4 Omagggio is the type of horse who could easily sneak into the exotics, although he rally seems to be a win-it-or-forget-it type. I’ll use these in a gimmick and scale wins bets on the other two according to the odds.
OTHER RACES
RACE 6
I see three horses that offer excellent value in this race: 1 Clapham 2 Unjust 4 He Ain’t Right. Clapham has some nice inner moves in races past the last one as well as some other changes that should aid him. The other two have a couple of good things in the pp’s, and I do not care at all for the morning line favorite. An exacta play for sure, win bets always depend on post time odds.
RACE 7
A truly wide open race, but I will key on 6 Kiss the Queen at 7/2 or better. Best way to play this one is the cheap exotics, 50-cent tri, 10-cent super, and I am looking at a bunch of others in this field, all of whom show me improvement possibility—although trying to put them in a definite rank order is impossible: 10 Shiver and Shake, 2 Our Girl Alice, 11 Jo Bananas, and 13 A Little Off.
Remember: it’s great to win, but at the end of the day, how much did you make?
