The What A Summer Stakes, in the dead of winter!
The $70,000 What A Summer Stakes is for older fillies and mares at six furlongs. The Laurel dirt course doesn't offer any distinct running style advantages at this distance. It is a fair track and the best horse that day usually wins.
A field of 10 is entered, including a Tim Tullock trained entry, so there are nine betting interests.
I'm going to look to play against the morning line favorite, #3 Royal Michele. She appears to have lost a step since she returned last fall. Her figures have declined slightly and she has lost twice while favored, including her last while 1 to 5.
Another that will be bet is #6 Sweet Goodbye. She wins often, but again, I see some negatives. She has not raced shorter than 7 furlongs in her last 10. She also hasn't shown the ability to pass horses lately. I feel she will have a tough time keeping up with legitimate sprinters while saving anything for the finish.
Of the rest, I'm dismissing #2 Heaven's Voice #1 Streetscape, #7 Puskita, #8 Fascinatin' Rhythm, and #9 Huge as just being too slow to win a race of this caliber.
#4 Aspenglow is a CharlesTown sensation, winning often and by large margins. Her lone trip to Laurel resulted in one of her few defeats. She does have very high early speed and might discourage a few here, but I think the field is too deep and talented to let her get away.
#5 Cuvee Uncorked ran well at Aqueduct on Thanksgiving weekend, finishing 3rd in a G2 and losing to two prior G2 winners. She has an ideal stalking style and will be tough here, but I doubt she offers much value.
All of this leads to my selection, #1A Strut the Canary. She should get an ideal pace setup and draws the perfect post to lay off the hot early pace. She has shown the ability to pass horses late in the past. In her prior outing, a prep after the long layoff, she was on the lead at the unfriendly speed distance at Philly Park of 6.5f and hung on well until the furlong pole. I look for her to get an ideal trip and spring the surprise.