Hollywood Park - Sat. Nov. 13th - Race 8 7.5 furlongs, "The On Trust Handicap"
9 - DANCE WITH GABLE
6 - STAR NICHOLAS
1 - BIG BAD LEROYBROWN
5 - BESTDRESSED
** Race profile information for the 7.5 furlong distance at Hollywood shows that over the past 2 years with 46 races at the distance, 12 winners went wire to wire (26%) and 31 of the 46 winners were already within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening 1/2 mile of the race (67%).
DANCE WITH GABLE has proven to be a very successful claim by Mike Machowsky from August and is now gunning for his 3rd restricted Cal-bred stakes win since switching barns. He's sharp right now off an easier than looked win in a turf sprint at Oak Tree, and has enough speed to stalk and pounce in what looks to be a solid set up at decent value. The 7.5 furlong distance is the only question as it is farther than he has run before but his versatile running style and the track profile for the distance suggest that it should be no problem.
STAR NICHOLAS is the defending champ of this race from last year and is the most accomplished horse on class and figures. He looks tough again this year at low odds in a version of the race that looks even weaker than last year's rendition. Only question for the returning champ is whether his latest string of longer races up to 1-1/8 miles has him as sharp as he was going into this same race last season. He has been relaxing early in those route efforts against moderate pace fractions and may have to be used a little more early to stay within striking distance in this elongated sprint. Always gives an honest account of himself down the stretch and will be a big part of the finish as long as the top value pick has not slipped away.
BIG BAD LEROYBROWN was an honest 2nd to DANCE WITH GABLE in their last matchup and is also coming into the race sharp.
BESTDRESSED sits way back and makes a run which means he often just picks up pieces and that could be the scene once again.
Best scenario: Pick 3's/4's, Use both DANCE WITH GABLE and STAR NICHOLAS 9-6
Win Bet Value: 9 - DANCE WITH GABLE
Exactas: 6-9 / 1-5-6-9
