As we all know, a number of factors contribute to the drama of a good $100,000.00 stakes race, and the Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream this Saturday is no exception. However, the weather and the turf only serve to complicate an already challenging scenario.
First of all, we have 15 contenders in a race that only allows 14 horses. In our case, the Racing Secretary will eliminate the horse with the lowest career earnings. This might not be totally fair for all involved in this stakes race for three year olds going for one mile on the turf, as different horses have won at different levels for different amounts. However, some standard has to be set, so GPX is going with career earnings. This is a small lesson for handicappers who can’t decide whether class is trumped by speed or by earnings. Gulfstream has chose the latter.
Next, is the weather. In our case, we are looking at 79 degrees with a good chance of thunderstorms. This calls for two handicapping efforts: One for turf horses who may have to run on dirt; and, one for dirt racers who are moving to turf for this race. Checking past performances usually helps in this regard, as results on both turf and dirt are easy to find and to figure into your handicapping efforts. Remember, not only can you check the weather instantly via the internet, but you can also check the weather by watching the track via the internet. With this race being the sixth of the day, rain will make it more sloppy with each race, so be sure to double-check. Believe me, it is worth the small effort.
Strike the Tiger is the favorite, but when he was forced off of the turf and onto the dirt, he finished 7th. He has also won at Churchill Downs, but only by a neck. As with any favorite, he will probably be pounded into chalk, so you might want to look at some Place and Show horses that can offer an overlay.
I like Bim Bam (5-1) (FL), City Trooper (8-1) (FL) and Mr. Vegas (12-1) (NY) with Prado in the irons for this great $100,000.00 feature.
