Gulfstream Park - Hot Stakes and Cold Weather
On Saturday, January 9, 2010, Gulfstream Park hosts five sprint races totaling $475,000.00. That's the good news. The bad news is that record breaking cold weather, plus a chance of rain, might upset the wishes of the jockeys, trainers, owners and the players.
Race 6, the Sugar Swirl Stakes, features a rare extra twist: Six of the contenders are coming off of multiple wins.
So, how do we find winners from a group of winners and how do we deal with G3 races on what may be a brutally weather-threatened track?
It is strange that both Seattle and Hallandale, Florida (Gulfstream’s home) are presently sharing the same weather. The nights are cold, but low wind and sunshine heat up the day pretty well, and lack of rain keeps the tracks dry. Plus, this type of weather is great for horses from KY, as right now, Florida almost feels like Kentucky.
I know both coasts of Florida and lived near Tampa, so I am familiar with the situation. As seen on the news, the farmers are nervous, but most people take it in stride. And, since the race is scheduled for 3:36 p.m. ET, the track should have time to warm up a bit. Sans rain, we should have a fast track with a slight chill in the air. Thunders Dove, trained by Nick Zito, will probably go off as the favorite, hitting five straight wins, all by three lengths or more, before a defeat at Belmont by Gallant Bloom. Don’t expect an overlay here, we’re talking Chalkfest 2010.
Bold Union, trained by Kelly Breen, with Joe Bravo on board, and the #1 post position, will also get pounded down into chalk.
So, what is a good horse player to do to profit from this situation? In such cases, I turn to the Place and Show pools. I don’t play to win. I play to win money. So, in most Graded Stakes, I skip the favorites and go for the money horses.
For example, in one of the “Sweet 16” 2009 Kentucky Derby Preps, the Lane’s End Stakes, the top picks had been ground down to chalk dust. So, I ignored the favorites and went with Private Pilot to Place. The $22.60+ return was easily worth the effort to me.
So, who falls into that department this time? I like Pretty Prolific because Prado came to Florida early to race at both Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream. If he can get ignored as a favorite and get a fast start from the #9 slot, he can do it. Tar Heel Mom, Warbling and D’Wild ride also fit into that scenario.
It should be a three-step plan: First, double-check the weather at the track; next, follow your picks on the tote board; and, finally, try to find the overlay and wager her to Place or Show.
In regular races, I guide my clients to winners, usually in Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s. But, in Graded Stakes, I redirect my efforts towards the money horses. My articles on playing Graded Stakes are on the net. Just Google “James Robins Thorostats” and you’ll find all of my articles from last Winter and Spring.
