This is part three in a four-part series discussing and helping the reader to understand value in different types of races. For the purpose of the article, the focus is on California racetracks.

 

It is a frustrating but common scene. A field of older horses, headlined by one or two strong favorites, goes to the post for an important stakes race. Coming down the stretch, the impossible happens: a longshot with a spotty race record powers to victory, defeating a field of horses so good that the longshot winner didn’t even fit in on paper. Some recent examples include Student Council, who won the 2007 Pacific Classic (gr. I) and paid $48.80; Mast Track, who took the 2008 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), paying $23.60; and Nownownow, victorious in last week’s San Fernando Stakes (gr. II) for a $38.40 payout. These huge winners seem to come from nowhere, but often the horse sticks around and has a successful campaign for the rest of the year. What happened? Why did the horse suddenly blossom? How can you predict this change and profit from it?

 

A brief survey of some major industry players – Barry Irwin of Team Valor, Jeff Lifson of West Point Thoroughbreds, and Leandro Mora, head assistant to major trainer Doug O’Neil – yields the same conclusion: a talented horse is never a surprise.

 

“I personally have never dealt with any horses that didn't show you a little talent early that eventually became good older horses,” Lifson noted. “It's rare that a horse that showed you little early becomes a good older horse.” Irwin agreed, “In the vast majority of instances the talent is readily apparent. The only times this is different is if a horse has a pedigree that calls for late maturation, in which case a late-bloomer can fool you.”

 

When a horseman talks about observing talent, they are speaking of how the horse acts in the morning while undergoing regular training -- how effortlessly the horse gallops, how fluid its stride is, and how fast it runs in a serious workout. Mora explained, “A good horse always shows talent. Sometimes, they are like an awkward kid at the school dance hanging back against the wall. You have to wait for them to mature before they will dance for you, but you knew the skills were there the whole time.”

 

A horse that jumps up and wins with a huge payoff is rarely just a random horse. Student Council had shown an affinity for the all weather surface by winning multiple allowances before the Pacific Classic win, and Mast Track had run a solid race in a Grade 1 turf event before the Gold Cup in addition to having a synthetic surface allowance win. Although Nownownow hadn’t won in six starts, he had already been victorious in a championship race: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf of 2007. All of these horses had back class that showed they weren’t exactly duds, just overlooked.

 

How can you, as a handicapper, tell that a horse is getting ready to step up? As previously noted by Barry Irwin, pedigree that indicates a late blooming horse is key. “I have learned the hard way that pedigree can be more of a key than conformation,” Irwin added. Bob Oliva, owner of racing partnership Renpher Stables, agreed: “Pedigree provides the best clues. Did the sire develop later, or did the dam? What about the offspring of the sire and dam? Do they win early, or do they win late?”

 

Looking through past performance records of the sire or dam can help a handicapper familiarize him or herself with what pedigree lines produce late bloomers. Some sires considered good candidates for throwing horses who tend to develop later in life include Kingmamo, Smart Strike, Holy Bull, Dynaformer, Deputy Minister, and in some cases, Seeking the Gold. While these stallions may produce some flashy juveniles (either directly or through their offspring standing at stud), the juveniles tend to return stronger than ever for their later campaigns.

 

One example of this is West Point’s racehorse Flashy Bull. “A great example of a horse of ours that blossomed at four and five is our Kentucky Derby starter, Flashy Bull. He was a nice horse at ages two and three, but he was a grade one winner and exceptional horse at age four. His pedigree did suggest that he would be a longer distance horse and that he might be better as an older horse,” Lifson illustrated.

 

 

Another issue for Flashy Bull was his size. “His frame was such that he needed to grow into it considerably and never got that chance until we gave him a four month turnout at the end of his three-year-old year,” Lifson explained. This is a key component for a handicapper to note. A horse that has been away from the races for an extended period of time before a four- or five-year-old season probably had the luxury of growing up and filling out, and may come back firing on all cylinders.

 

However, Irwin warns handicappers not to take the often-argued trait of size too seriously. “I have bought horses that I would swear would be better as they matured at three and four, yet they surprised me and did their best running at two. Size can fool you,” Irwin cautioned. “I have found that the key to whether a horse will be better earlier is the amount of muscle definition it has. The horses with the most highly defined muscles seem to be the most precocious. I have a background in track and field and this same trait is noticeable with people as well. The smaller to medium-sized individuals with the most developed muscles are the most precocious.”

 

A good example of a horse that always exhibited talent but needed time to grow into his massive frame is Southern California-based Rock Hard Ten, measured at seventeen hands at maturity. (A hand is a four-inch measurement from the ground to the horse’s withers, a point behind the neck). A classy but gangly runner as a sophomore, Rock Hard Ten exploded on the scene as a four-year-old, racking up several major victories. Trainer John Shirreffs knew that the dazzling filly Zenyatta had talent from day one, but had to let the massive runner grow up before racing.  Zenyatta rewarded his patience with an undefeated four-year-old season. Another popular runner, The Midnight Lute, showed extreme talent in his impressive debut at Del Mar. But the need to grow and mature left him off the racetrack for quite a while before back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Sprint wins. Although these horses were never longshots, they all carried a common trait: talent that needed time to come to fruition.

 

Armed with all of this information, how does a handicapper put it to use? Studying pedigrees and understanding which sires and damsires produce late developing offspring certainly helps, as does being present at the track to observe the physical size, muscle structure, and overall appearance of the horse.

 

However, the most important aspect to remember is that a good horse is always a good horse and is never a surprise. A horse must have some sort of back class to step up and run a big race as it matures, whether it was evident through fast workouts, solid performances against strong company, or a top pedigree destined to mature later. One way to identify this is to observe CASE data over time. A horse that received high speed measures in the past, indicating a good performance, could be quite capable of running that way again when circumstances permit. However, it is even more important to recognize horses that are earning top CASE ratings while finishing third through fifth, proving that the horse has talent but hasn’t broken through for the big win yet. Many longshot winners had received high CASE scores previously to back up their performance. 

 

 

Emily Shields s a regular contributor to Case the Race.  She has written for California Thoroughbred, Churchill Downs media, and international racing magazines.