Packers-Falcons Over 53

If we've learned anything this season it's that strong passing offenses are way ahead of defenses, especially those with coverage weaknesses.

The Packers are the highest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 37 points. Aaron Rodgers, and this is scary, is actually improved and has more dangerous weapons.

There is not a defense in the league that can keep the Packers' offense in check right now. The Falcons were lit up by Tarvaris Jackson last week. It's scary to think of the numbers Rodgers can put up. The Falcons were burned by Rodgers last year giving up 48 points at home in the title game. The Packers did that without Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and Ryan Grant.

Green Bay's potent attack is made even more dangerous playing on carpet. The Falcons aren't strong in coverage and their pass rush is overrated.

The Falcons, though, are going to put up their share of points. Matt Ryan is much better playing at home where he has completed 64.7 percent of his throws and has a 96.7 quarterback rating lifetime in the Georgia Dome.

The Falcons have increased their firepower, too, adding rookie Julio Jones, who is living up to high expectations. Missing star safety Nick Collins, the Packers have proven vulnerable on long passes. They are surrendering an average of 333.5 yards through the air. That's the second-worst mark in the NFL.