2 Units: Packers-Bears Under 46

The under has cashed the last seven times these teams have met. Neither team has scored more than 21 points during the past six meetings. It's not just by happenstance either.
The Bears frustrate the explosive Packers with their bend-but-don't-break Cover 2 coverage. This zone coverage is designed to limit big plays and it has frustrated Aaron Rodgers forcing him to be patient.

Green Bay has averaged just 20.6 points against the Bears when Rodgers has been the quarterback. Likewise, the Packers have frustrated Jay Cutler, who has faced the Packers once with Denver and five times with the Bears. Cutler is averaging 13.2 points versus Green Bay. His quarterback rating has exceeded 82 only once in those games. In three of those contests, Cutler's QB rating was 43.2, 43.5 and 31.8.

The Bears' offense under Mike Martz is predicated on Cutler throwing downfield. The Bears, though, surrendered the most sacks last year and are less experienced this year with injuries in the offensive line. They have yielded 11 sacks already and Cutler has been knocked around much more.

Recognizing their offensive line deficiencies, the Bears plan on running the ball more to keep Green Bay's aggressive defense in check. That's going to speed up the clock more. Keep in mind, too, this is perhaps the worst grass field in the league in terms of footing.

2 Units: Packers -3 1/2 at Bears (try and find -3 or buy 1/2 point down to -3)

Chicago doesn't have the offense to keep up with Green Bay.

The Saints destroyed the Bears last week by blitzing and exposing the Bears' weak offensive line. Dom Capers, like Saints' defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, also likes to be aggressive and use various blitz schemes.

The Bears haven't had a sound offensive line in five years. This year's offensive line is even worse than last season's, which yielded the most sacks in the league. Making it worse for the Bears is they are down an offensive lineman with right tackle Gabe Carimi out with a knee injury.

This has been a close series. But now the Packers are clearly superior. They beat the Bears at Solider Field by a touchdown despite multiple injuries. The Bears actually made the score close after Jay Cutler was knocked out.

Cutler has gone against Green Bay five times, once with Denver and four times with Chicago. His passer rating during this games was 95.7, 43.2, 74.9, 82.5, 43.5 and 31.8. Cutler's teams averaged only 13.2 points versus the Packers.

The Packers know not to get too greedy against Chicago's well-coached and patient defense. The Packers have too much firepower, though, not to put up more than enough points to cover this short spread.