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This is part one in a four-part series discussing and helping the reader to understand value in different types of races. For the purpose of the article, the focus is on California racetracks.
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Wagering on two-year-olds is one of the most frustrating aspects of the sport, because each unraced maiden is a clean slate with little background information, and even the trainers aren’t positive about a horse’s ability. Even more frustrating is the fact that a two-year-old develops so quickly that a bumbling seventh place finish in June can translate into a runaway five-length victory in July at long odds.
There are several key principles to keep in mind when gambling on juveniles. Much like a questionable pop band, many horses are one-hit wonders, meaning that they rarely are able to replicate one good performance after another. Early developing sprinters are often seen cruising in May and June at Hollywood Park, but by the time the Del Mar meet has faded, so have these horses.
In late summer and throughout the fall, the best trainers start unveiling the millions of dollars worth of “babies” they acquired starting at the yearling sales the year before. These horses are debuted in maiden special weight races, not claiming races, whether or not they appear to have any talent, because of the amount of money invested in the horse and the owner’s expectations. For example, take two-year-olds debuted by Bob Baffert in the West or Todd Pletcher in the East (although increasingly in California as well). Many of these two trainers’ two-year-olds will win during a given meet in the summer and fall, so almost all go off at short odds with the best jockey aboard and a royal pedigree. Only some of these horses will actually win, the rest will be upset by less “flashy” juveniles who come home at mid-odds.
Workouts are a good indication of a youngster’s speed, and also how the horse is handling a particular track. Workouts are most important in two-year-old races where you have little else to base your opinion on, and typically if a horse seems to like the track and has been training steadily with solid and not slow workout times, that horse should run well if the activity in the paddock doesn’t cause it to come completely unglued. Such factors must be considered in “baby races,” since a calm, collected juvenile that you like on paper is worth three panicked, sweating juveniles.
Some trainers, such as John Shirreffs or Ron McAnally, debut a horse with no intention of getting a win, only gaining experience. These trainers seldom win the big two-year-old races because they haven’t lost sight of the goal of a long, productive career. Other trainers are more reliable: Jeff Mullins, John Sadler, and Doug O’Neil are out there to win every time.
Pedigree is a good indicator of whether a horse will be a “win early” type or whether that horse will develop later, becoming more of a force around two turns. Lauren Stitch, longtime bloodlines analyst and pedigree handicapper for Daily Racing Form and currently the Racing Editor for Horse Society Magazine, summarized how to use pedigree while handicapping two-year-olds. “There are sire lines that are known for precocity, and following this is a good rule of thumb, but remember, there are always exceptions.” She then listed two sire-lines as those that produce the most precocious juveniles: Mr. Prospector (Raise a Native), which is especially apparent through the Unbridled line with Unbridled’s Song and Songandaprayer, as well as through Carson City with Cuvee, City Zip, and Lord Carson; and In Reality (Intentionally), who gave us Valid Appeal, Relaunch, and subsequently Honour and Glory.
Another example of Mr. Prospector’s influence came up this year when Lion Heart rapidly became one of the leading sires of two-year-olds with his first crop. Mr. Prospector is the sire of Yarn, the dam of Tale of the Cat, also a top sire of juveniles. Tale of the Cat is the sire of Lion Heart.
Bloodlines that tend to develop later include Roberto (Hail to Reason), through Dynaformer, Kris S., and Red Ransom (which in turn gives us young sires Action This Day, Arch, Rock Hard Ten, and the well-regarded Comic Strip); also Ribot, who produced Graustark, His Majesty, and Tom Rolfe, a line which continues through Albert the Great and Pleasant Tap today.
However, senior correspondent for the BloodHorse, Steve Haskin, cautions, “Breeding has changed, and it seems sires you wouldn’t expect to have precocious horses do.” The example of Unbridled’s Song again comes up, as his sire, Unbridled, loved 1 1/4 miles, and Unbridled’s Song ran well at several distances, but his offspring are sharp two-year-olds (see Midshipman, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner). Indian Charlie, who won the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby, has produced Indian Blessing and Bwana Charlie, crack sprinters, and on the other side of the coin, sharp sprinter/miler Langfuhr has produced star routers Wando, Lawyer, Ron, Mobil, and Jambalaya.
A perfect example of understanding pedigree when it comes to picking longshot horses is the 2003 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. An evenly-matched field of twelve went to the gate, led by the star sprinter Cuvee who had impressed many but whose pedigree left him suspect past one mile. Action This Day, on the other hand, was dismissed at long odds despite having master horseman Richard Mandella for a trainer and boasting a pedigree full of stamina influences. Action This Day was exiting a maiden win in his first attempt stretching out, and circled the field for the Juvenile, paying $55.60 to win. Handicappers who were “paying attention” to the pedigrees in the race, as well as the recent form of the horses, did not miss this opportunity to cash in a huge ticket. Similarly, in 1999, Anees went to the post in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 30 – 1 off only a maiden victory, but stretching out over his fellow speedy rivals, Anees scored and paid $62.60. Neither horse went on to accomplish much else in their career, but that is beside the point when the handicapper has missed such a golden payday!
The best opportunity to make money in two-year-old racing comes in the fall and winter when those heavily bet stakes winning sprinters are trying a route of ground for the first time against solidly-bred horses coming off of maiden victories. It is unusual to see a precocious two-year-old really step up and carry its speed going a distance unless the horse is something special, so in any given scenario where the horse bred to route and be better as a three-year-old is at longer odds than the horse bred to tail off early, it is wise to back the horse at a price.
Juveniles blossom so rapidly that the handicapper should be privy to any equipment changes, such as blinkers going on or off, and also pay attention to horses who are simply developing experience. It can take some horses a few races to “put things together” and all of the sudden the horse finally understands its job, and runs away to a surprising victory. Signs of this include watching a horse improve its position in each race while adding a route of ground, say, from an 8th to a 4th to a win. Another key to look for is when a horse stops badly and fades going a mile or seven furlongs and cuts back to five or six furlongs; the horse will appreciate the shorter trip and its poor performance last out will cause casual handicappers to ignore while in fact the horse is going to hold on this time, rather than fade.
However, there comes a time when the handicapper should just sit back and enjoy the prowess of a certain two-year-old. Sometimes, a horse is simply so much better than its rivals that it will not lose, such as recent stars Vindication, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine, and Stardom Bound this year. In this case, either look for a value horse to complete the exacta, or skip the race when wagering.
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