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Handicapping Tips for Gulfstream Park

The warm weather will be returning to Gulfstream Park this weekend and with it will be the anticipation of great races throughout the meet. Events like the Sunshine Millions, the Florida Derby, The Donn Handicap the Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup Turf, the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull stakes and the Gulfstream Park, Pan Am and Orchid handicaps will draw crowds and provide betting opportunities for horseplayers. To help you take advantage of those opportunities, we’ve compiled some tips from handicappers who understand Gulfstream Park and are willing to share their insight. Jarrod Horak is the Track Handicapper at Louisiana Downs, and is also an Editor/Staff Handicapper at Horse Racing Nation. Mike Shutty is co-founder of Horse Racing Nation. Jeffery Cobb is the author of the popular blog, Chalk Eating Weasel Report and a Florida resident.

Different This Year

For people who have handicapped Gulfstream in the Past, the first question may be, “What is different this year?” According to Cobb, “The newest twist is the splitting of the turf course into an inner and outer course. The word is that the inner course may be somewhat more than usually favorable to speed. However, I haven't really had a chance to verify that for myself. The outer course should run more like a normal turf course, but bear in mind that the Gulfstream Park course is a bit sandy and a little faster than most courses.”

Track Biases

Concerning the Gulfstream Park track, there are several considerations that will influence the outcome of the race. “Some general things about Gulfstream Park that are fairly well known to those of us who follow it but may be lesser known to the occasional simulcaster are: 1. Speed wins on dirt; 2. Anything outside of post position 8 in a dirt route better be great to have a shot, i.e. Big Brown….”commented Cobb. Shutty added some thoughts about track biases at Gulfstream Park. “Turf favors closers early in the meet. That bias shifts to pressers later in the meet as the surface takes some wear.” Shutty also mentioned another peculiarity. “Watch for inner rail speed biases to materialize suddenly, particularly on Saturdays or first day of the race week. It can last for as little as a day or two or go on for a week or so. “

Trainers
In addition to local trainers and horses, Gulfstream Park also draws talent from throughout the East Coast and beyond. Cobb offered this advice, “… In general, stick with the big name trainers, or at least beware of the local South Florida trainers as they just don't have the horses to compete. The exception is Marty Wolfson who is always dangerous, but even his win percentage will drop against the big national operations.”

Horak offered some specific details about trainers to watch. “Todd Pletcheris loaded with 3 year old talent at the Gulf. He has Kentucky Jockey Club winner Super Saver, Delta Jackpot hero Rule, and Pilgrim Stakes winner Eskendereya. He also has Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf show finisher Interactif, and recently-turned 4 year old Quality Road won the Hal's Hope for this barn on opening week as well.”

Further expanding on the insight into Gulfstream’s trainers, Shutty recommended avoiding Zito and Marty Wolfson horses early in the meet even with low odds horses. “They catch fire late in the Gulfstream Park meet,” he said. Additionally, Shutty provided the following list of the following trainers.

Here is Shutty’s list of trainers who win early in the meet:

Thomas Proctor (plus, returning in less than 30 days)
George R Arnold II
Christophe Clement (plus, stretch outs and class hikes)
Richard E. Dutrow Jr. (plus, long layoffs and dirt routes)
Mark A. Hennig (plus, maiden claiming races)
Allen H. Jerkins
Steve Klesaris (plus, first time starters and 2nd start off the layoff)
William Mott
Todd Pletcher (plus, long layoff, stretching out)
Dale Romans
Michael Trombetta
Wesley A. Ward (plus, 2nd start off the layoff and dropping in class)

Jockeys

“As for jockeys, it looks like the usual suspects,” said Cobb. “Lezcano, Velazquez (on dirt not so much on turf), Leparoux, Desormeaux, etc. I like to take a closer look at the second tier riders like Elvis Trujillo and Paco Lopez. Both of these guys will get their share of wins and will tend to pay more than the better known guys. Play 'em while you can cause in won't be long before they are the better known guys.”

Horses

While the meet promises to attract a number of great horses, Horaknamed two in particular to watch – Imaginary Saint and Eskendereya. Concerning Imaginary Saint, Horak wrote, “ [She] broke [her] maiden over a route of ground at Delaware Park, and the 3 year old filly faced winners for the first time at the Gulf on Jan 6th. She was prominent throughout and finished a solid third at a flat mile. Watch for her around two turns next time.” Eskendereya was another horse Horak recommended watching, “[He] disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and made much anticipated 3 year old bow at Gulfstream on Jan 7th. The Todd Pletcher trainee was a sharp prominent throughout winner in the flat mile allowance race, and he stopped the clock in 1:36.79. The son of Giant's Causeway is ready to return to the stakes ranks. “

Cobb also mentioned Albertus Maximus. “I read in American Turf Monthly that Albertus Maximus is back in training and will be aiming for the Donn Handicap.”

For more tips on mastering Gulfstream Park, read Gulfstream Offers the Winter’s Best Racing by Noel Michaels.