I am prejudiced against older horses in such a race, but since all the entrants are 3 year olds there is no need to expose that bias here.

The Beyer Par for this race is 79 and, with one exception, no horse in this race has ever run to this figure.

The 8 horse field narrowed down very nicely with some easy toss outs.

The first is the only horse to have run to par, the #1 Coast to Coast. Unfortunately Coast to Coast has been on the bench since May. I don’t trust 3 year olds at this level who take such a long time off. Especially if their trainer has no history of success coming off the layoff as is the case with Louise Acuna.

#4 Ala Al Din is yet another lay off horse having been sidelined since April. Again trainer Robert Boileau has no history of success after so much time off.

The two other eliminations are #7 Unbridled’s Gun and #8 Royal Tapit. Each is a study in futility at the bottom level for Maiden Claimers. I don’t know what makes the connections feel like they can compete at this somewhat higher level.

The “maybe” horse in this race is the #5 Scorbit trained by Delmar Martins. Martins is another trainer who seems to have difficulty finding races in which his horse can win as witnessed by his 0 for 50 record during the Calder meet. For instance, Scorbit’s last race was the Grade 3 Calder Derby against the likes of Sal The Barber. Scorbit managed a 70 Beyer that race. Despite Martins poor training record Scorbit shows a degree of ability and, if placed in the right race, could probably break his maiden. I don’t think it will be here, but will not be shocked if it is.

The #3 horse, Stamen, is the also the number 3 contender. If we can forgive and look past his last start we will see that he has finished in the money 4 of 5 times. Stamen is trained by Stanley Gold who is off to a good start for the Tropical at Calder meet with 2 wins in 8 attempts. Jockey Jeffrey Sanchez has teamed up for a 26% win rate with a +ROI in 27 races. The knock against Stamen, besides his last outing, is 12 starts with no wins.

Too many starts are not a problem for the 2nd contender #2 No Flattery Needed. Trained by Martin Wolfson and ridden by hot apprentice Luis Saez (28 9 4 2 .32 for the Tropical Meet). No Flattery Needed finished 2nd last out against similar in only his 2nd time out. A second place finish at this level is often an omen of better things to come next out. The knock would be a Beyer Figure 13 points below par.

When the experienced contenders in a maiden race can’t run to par, I often turn to first time starters for a win hopeful. #6 Power Rules is sired by Peace Rules. Peace Rules is ranked as an A+ first time starter sire in the “Sire Stats 2009” publication put out by the Thoroughbred Sports Network. In addition, William White is a 21% winner with first time starters. Power Rules shows three gate workouts, so I’m thinking he will be well schooled at the start. Jockey L. E. Arango and Bill White have teamed up 31 times with a 26% win rate and + ROI, so we have a good jockey-trainer combo to boot.

Some stars have to align here. Coast to Coast has to run like a horse coming off the bench who needs a race and No Flattery Needed can’t be allowed to move forward off his last outing. Stamen has to show that his last was not an exception and Scorbit has to be once again misplaced by his 0 for 50 trainer.

As always, watch the first tick on the tote board for first time starters such as Power Rules. If he is a first tick favorite, you’ll have a pretty strong clue he is live for this race.

Contender Order:

#6 Power Rules

#2 No Flattery Needed

#3 Stamen

#5 Scorbit