By Noel Michaels

Aqueduct's fall main track race meet, which begins on Wednesday, Oct. 28 and continues through most of November, is the most overlooked segment of the annual New York racing calendar despite the fact that the dirt track and the underutilized turf course are often regarded by some as the safest and fairest tracks on the NYRA circuit.

In many ways, the Aqueduct fall meet is essentially just an extension of the Belmont fall meet. The Big A gives New York racing fans one last month of high-quality racing until Thanksgiving weekend comes and goes and ushers in winter the Aqueduct inner-track winter race meet. Sure, some high-profile horses and barns will begin to migrate to Kentucky this month before traveling onward to Florida or elsewhere to take the winter off, but there’s still enough good jockeys, horses, and horsemen remaining In New York this time of year to make this meet worth following closely.

Plus, turf is still a part of the Aqueduct fall meet, as grass racing in New York continues all throughout November on the fresh Aqueduct turf course, weather permitting. If you like turf racing at Belmont, the turf program at Aqueduct certainly still has much to offer horseplayers who prefer to do their handicapping on the lawn.

The biggest change with the move to Aqueduct is the difference in track configuration from Belmont Park. Dirt mile races remain one-turn affairs at the Big A, but all longer route races turn into more traditional two-turn events at Aqueduct (1 1/16-mile and 1 1/8 routes at Belmont are all around one turn). This change in track configuration cannot be underestimated, especially for two-turn route loving horses that were forced to race around one turn all throughout Belmont's fall meet.

Different horses generally tend to excel in one-turn races than in two-turn races, and it's always worth paying attention to who's who at this time of year. Generally the best way to do this is to comb through horse’s pp’s to find two-turn victories, and Aqueduct main track horses for the course with past wins at Aqueduct – even if those wins came in the spring of 2009 or ever as far back as the spring and fall of 2008. These Big A-loving horses can turn around their fortunes immediately at this time of year with no apparent warning and no other major change being made except for the switch to Aqueduct from Belmont Park (this is also an angle to watch in the waning days of the Aqueduct main track meet before racing switches to the inner track, because different horses tend to prefer either the main track or the inner track, and are rarely horses for the course on both surfaces).

Many horses who don't perform well on the Aqueduct main track will just be prepping during the main track meet so they'll be ready for immediate positive turnarounds in form once the inner track meet opens. When you see an inner track horse prepping on the main track, toss him out of you contenders for that race but put him on your list of horses to watch next time out.

In terms of running style and post position favoritism, keep in mind that Aqueduct's main track is among the fairest in all the land. Very little advantage can be gleaned by any one post position or running style versus any other. Interestingly, too, is the fact that the rail (post 1) has a bad reputation in the main track's one-turn miles, but the recent statistics fail to back-up this reputation. All posts, including the rail, appear to be fair in one-turn miles, and if anything, based strictly on the numbers from recent main track meets, the rail seems to be better in mile races (one turn) than it is in two-turn routes. Keep a close eye on this fall’s trend as it develops. These post position upgrades and downgrades will keep you one step ahead of the curve and give you a great edge on the rest of the oblivious betting public.

At other distances, post positions and running style preferences also are virtual non-factors here. If anything, perhaps sprints can occasionally favor inside posts, but it's usually not enough of an advantage to base your bets on.

On turf, many of the best bets on the grass during the Aqueduct fall meet are horses that have been just slightly outclassed during the Belmont meet – and especially back in the Saratoga meet. Suddenly, many of these horses who stick around in New York for Aqueduct turf racing become the horses to beat on the grass during November. These horses may be in form, but have suffered various defeats and off-the-board finishes because they’ve been racing against better horses. They'll often turn things around at Aqueduct, and you'll be able to spot these horses easily because they'll be trying to squeeze in as many starts as possible on the Big A green before the climate changes and turf racing in New York ends for the season at the beginning of December.

This same train of thought also applies to 6 1/2- and 7-furlong specialists, as well. They'll be trying to squeeze in as many starts as possible during November before the 6 1/2- and 7-furlong races disappear from the New York calendar (all sprints on the Aqueduct inner track are six furlongs.

Gary Contessa and Bruce Levine are the trainers who often rule the roost at Aqueduct at this time of year, and this season should be no exception. Big-name trainers such as Barclay Tagg, who had a cold Belmont meet but should be loaded for Aqueduct, and guys like Todd Pletcher, H. James Bond, Tom Albertani and others will also still be running horses in New York during most of the main track meet. Those trainers and others such as Richard Dutrow and Kiaran McLaughlin who've split their barns between New York and out-of-town strings should all do extremely well at Aqueduct over the next month.

It also should be noted that Anthony Dutrow, Dominic Galluscio, and Tom Bush all had hot Belmont fall meets. Keep an eye on their stock early to see if they remain hot, or if they’ve already fired their best bullets this fall and are now out of ammunition.

Finally, always keep a close eye out for James Jerkens horses this time of year – particularly his second-time starters. James Jerkens always cranks up his second-time starters in maiden races, and they can be counted on to run well here – even if they’ve shown next-to-nothing in their first career outings.

The jockey colony in New York will soon lose its luster, but it is still awfully tough throughout the month of November. Alan Garcia, Ramon Dominguez, Jose Lezcano, and Rajiv Maragh will likely be the big winners here in November, and Cornelio Velasquez, John Velazquez, Edgar Prado, and Eibar Coa will all be expected to keep winning more than their share. Alan Garcia's local fortunes will probably be in step with Kiaran McLaughlin's local string, If McLaughlin does well, so too will Garcia since the pair represents the top local jockey/trainer combination at the meet. Also keep a watch out for both Prado and Cornelio Velasquez aboard Richard Dutrow's horses, and of course John Velazquez on Pletcher's best horses.

__________________________________

This article was contributed by Noel Michaels