One reason I chose this race is the conditions almost guide you to the likely winner. Notice that the 4 years and upward are restricted to non-winners of three while any three year old filly is eligible provided you are willing to risk her for $10k. I say the advantage goes to the 3 year olds. If you can find a 3 year old that has actually exceeded the elder eligibility conditions, so much the better. There is such a horse in the race.

I’ll start with the eliminations. The conditions of this race are such that I am inclined to eliminate nearly any older horse with the audacity to enter this contest. The easiest elimination in this group has little to do with the conditions. Entry #2 I Love to Say Yes should learn to say no. This 7 year old mare has been to the gate 77 times and has only 2 wins to show for her effort. She did show some signs of life last out against 6250N3L company in finishing 3rd, but I will take a pass here.

The other pass is #6 Sweet Little Rose. Trainer Barry Rose is a Calder fixture although I think he tends to place his horses a little too ambitiously (witness Prince Joshua in the G1 King’s Bishop at Saratoga this year). Sweet Little Rose is a 4 year old with two wins in 28 tries. She is coming off the bench having last race on June 25. A look at her most recent races indicates she needed the break; however even if she matches her best ever effort, it will not be good enough here.

#7 Galacia Forest and #8 Aiuni are two 3 year olds with a chance but who seem unlikely to me. Since moving up to non-winners of 3 Galacia Forest has not been able to crack the top half of the field, and she gets a 10 pound bug boy to boot.

The choice between Aiuni and #3 My Best China was difficult. There really isn’t much to separate them in my eyes. My Best China gets this year’s hot apprentice jockey in Luis Saez, and that is the difference maker for me. The contenders. My Best China held the lead for 6 of the 7 furlongs before drifting out in the stretch, a sure sign she was tiring. I think this spot looks a little tough for her now, but she has won at this distance on this track before and maybe the last race will help her carry her speed all the way. However, she remains a distant number 4 contender.

The number next contender, #1 One Proud Cat is a 4 year old filly that may be the exception that proves the rule. But, you know, it took her 10 tries to claw her way out of the non-winners of one category against 3 year old and up company. She does have three positives in her favor 1) She is consistently running around the average Beyer figure necessary to win this race 2) This will be the first time she has dropped down to the $10k level and 3) she is cutting back in distance after having led at the first two calls at a mile and 70 against Optional Claiming opponents. Still there are principles involved here so she is only the number three contender.

The runner up choice is #4 Girl Band. Frankly I liked The Bangles; however The Go-Go’s were cool too. But I digress. Girl Band has the looks of a 3 year old on “the improve” having run her best Beyer’s last out. With 3 wins in 15 outings, she has also exceeded the conditional requirement for older horses which makes her favored over One Proud Cat in my mind.

And the winner is…#5 Brandy Bai. Brandy Bai has not only exceeded the conditions for older horses but has done them 1 better with 4 wins in only 10 outings. Her last race doesn’t look so great unless you notice that two of the three horses that finished ahead of her were next out winners. In her races two back and three back she not only managed to run to the Beyer par figure but blasted through it by 17 and 9 points respectively including a win in open 10k claiming company. Brandy is trained by the able Pablo Andrade (17% for the Calder Meet) and will be ridden by Eibar Coa. Better for the price if she were ridden by Daniel Coa to be sure. Still, if you can get anywhere near even money on this filly, consider it an overlay.

If you must get more value from this race, consider Brandy Bai as a single in the late pick four. That is most likely how I will use her. If the crowd bestows something like 3 to 5 or 2 to 5 favoritism upon her, I’d be loathe to question the wisdom of the continuum on this one.

That’s the race for this week.

#5 Brandy Bai

#4 Girl Band

#1 One Proud Cat

#3 My Best China