An interesting aspect of this race is that while being scheduled for the turf, there are only 2 horses whose past performances show them to be committed turf runners. What makes it more interesting is that I don’t consider either horse to be a serious threat to win the race.

I think there are two types of horses that races with these conditions favor: 1) younger horses with potential trying to climb their way up the condition ladder and 2) older campaigners who have met the conditions but have little upside at this point in their racing careers and are in for a tag.

The two committed turf runners are older horses still eligible for non-winners of two conditions. This is why I eliminate #1 Aircraft Intercept and #6 Bucket Head. They do show issues which indicate why they may remain eligible for NW2 conditions this late in life. Aircraft Intercept finished 9th of 9 last out and “Tried to savage rivals” during the running of his last race. I’m not sure what that means, but I’m glad I wasn’t there to witness it. Bucket Head has never run better than par for this for this surface and distance in 25 lifetime attempts.

The other elimination is the #5 Indy Connection, a 4 year old runner that was having trouble with the 6250 claiming level and shouldn’t be moving up to 25k. It makes no sense for him to be in here.

Next we have the runners with a chance but who seem less likely to this humble correspondent. #2 Bidham is a nice 3 year old who falls into the 1st category. But his two turf efforts have been noticeably slower than his normal dirt efforts, so I don’t see it happening. #9 Unbridled Heat is a 4 year old in for a tag. Not a total shocker if he wins; however, trainer Charles Fontana is 4 for 91 over the last 5 years and 0 for 21 in his most recent turf sprint efforts. #4 Guns Drawn was a winner under similar conditions last out going wire to wire. This time I think the 6 year old will feel some pressure from the outside and not be able to run right back to the big 88 Beyer figure he posted last time.

For the win contenders in backward order 7 year old #7 Diamond Isle may have found his niche in winning at this distance and condition level in his first turf try, or it could have been a fluke. Either way, he’s had some time off since his August 28th win. A concern would be the lack of posted workouts since his last race.

The “new” horse in the field is Jazz Nation. As a juvenile, Jazz Nation sat at the top of the 2 year old racing world finishing 2nd over Lantana Mob in the Favorite Trick Breeder’s Cup Stakes at Monmouth. Jazzy seems to have fallen on hard times having been claimed for a mere 25k by Trainer Marcus Vitale (another new face at Calder). If he can even run back to the form he showed as a three year old, he’ll have a good chance in this spot. Vitale is 29% out of his last 31 in the first after claim category, and Jazzy has a work over the track. You may get a price on this newcomer.

Starting from the outside post is #10 Haps Alphabet Soup ridden by the Calder meet’s leading rider Manoel Cruz. The outside is where you want to be at this distance on the Calder turf course. The sharp turns make it difficult for the inside horses to maintain their speed. Hapsy is also the other speed in the race and should be in the clear with the veteran Manny Cruz on board. There is one caveat here. Manny’s win percentage drops off on the turf compared to his dirt track record, and his mounts tend to get overbet.

That’s why I’m going to put an improving 3 year old at the top of this group and go with #8 Frosty Diamond. This will be Frosty’s 4th try at this level, and Eibar Coa’s 2nd trip aboard Frosty. Frosty should be able to track the pace setters in this race and Eibar will know when the time is right to make the run for the wire. He showed a lot of improvement last out over his previous turf attempt and certainly has the pedigree for the surface (Medaglia d’Oro by El Prado).

So there you have the choices.

8. Frosty Diamond

10. Haps Alphabet Soup

3. Jazz Nation

7. Diamond Isle