As Zenyatta prepares for what many expect will be her 13th consecutive win this weekend, we surveyed handicappers for some of their thoughts on the famous filly and the upcoming the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Santa Anita’s Oak Tree. What would it take to beat Zenyatta this weekend? Who else has a chance for the Lady’s Secret Stakes? Any strategy advice for betting a race like this? After watching her workouts, Toby Turrell assured us that “the streak can go on.” As Carl of Calhorse2Win, our current guest commentator for Oak Tree at Santa Anita, pointed out, this race will be a good indication of what we might expect from Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup. Steven Kolb, author of How to WIN the PICK 6, told us that he hopes it’s close. “I want her to win by a nostril in a three-way photo with Cocoa Beach and Briecat. That would be exciting!” Kolb said. Rick Harris of Calhorse outlined a few possible scenarios that could lead to an upset. Acknowledging that unbeaten Zenyatta comes at a price, Tim Maas gives a value analysis for the race. Here are their comments and betting advice:
Upset Scenarios – Rick Harris of Calhorse
What are the scenarios for an upset of the unbeaten Zenyatta in Saturday's Lady Secret at Oak Tree? The two logical upsetters are Zenyatta's own stablemate, Life is Sweet and the New York invader from the Goldolphin stable, Cocoa Beach. The other possibilities for an upset are the two runners that finished in a near dead heat with Zenyatta at Del Mar, Lethal Heat and Anabaa's Creation. Let's start with Lethal Heat and Anabaa's Creation. They ran the races of their careers when Zenyatta was able to get up just in time in the smallest margin of victory in twelve race career. Lethal Heat has come back three times from that race already has run credibly, but not good enough to win. Anabaa's Creation, from the Julio Canani barn, has trained solidly since that August encounter and may be primed for another huge effort. Rafael Bejarano will now be in the saddle. Trainer John Shirreff's sends his second best filly, Life is Sweet, to once again to do battle with her stablemate. After running second to Zenyatta in the Milady at Hollywood Park, Life is Sweet ran a distant third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup and then a non-threatening fourth in the Clement Hirsch, the race in which Zenyatta just got up in time against Lethal Heat and Anabaa's Creation. A change in race track, Life is Sweet is three for three over the Santa Anita surface, and a two month rest may what it takes for Life is Sweet to turn the tables on her stablemate. The 1 1/16 mile distance may give Life is Sweet an advantage if Zenyatta gets into her stride too late, as she almost did in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar. Cocoa Beach returns to the West Coast after a successful invasion last year. The Grade 1 runner from the Saeed bin Suroor shedrow ran second to Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup and then annexed the Grade 1 Matriarch at Hollywood Park. This mare returned to the races in June and is rounding back into shape with an eye on another try in the Breeders' Cup. The 1 1/16 mile distance will be to her advantage also as she will be in front of Zenyatta as they turn into the stretch. If Zenyatta is Zenyatta, then it will be difficult for any other these mares to hold off the unbeaten one down the stretch. The question is if trainer John Shirreffs has Zenyatta cranked up for this event or has his eye on the big prize at the Breeders Cup?
Got Kick? - Steven Kolb, Author - How to WIN the PICK 6
Zenyatta has. Zenyatta has two gears - "steady" and "kick it into high speed." Today I doubt that Zenyatta is going to be dropping to the far back in the early going. There is a fear in her camp that this race might get away from her. Mike Smith will try hard to keep her from getting boxed in. Zenyatta is one very big and powerful mare. She should be able to come flying down the stretch and win this race easily. However, I don't think it's going to happen that way. I want Zenyatta to win. I want her to win by a nostril in a three-way photo with Cocoa Beach and Briecat. That would be exciting! I would like us all to be watching replay after replay of a thrilling race until she is eventually declared the winner. Cocoa Beach (6-1) should be running from off the pace, saving ground all the way. If, down the stretch, she can find that coveted "high gear" (and has room) she'll make it to the photo. Briecat (20-1) is my longshot. I'd like to see her get the lead, and at the far turn have enough run left that she'll be the one they're trying to catch. Ahhh...But who am I trying to kid? Zenyatta is a single on my Pick 6 ticket. She's gotta' win, and win she will.
The Streak Can Go On - Toby Turrell, The Winner’s Card and The Works at Case the Race
Zenyatta has the look of a mare who wants to stay undefeated. She is serious in her training about not taking this race too lightly as to risk breaking her unbeaten winning streak. In fact, she is unbeaten in the A.M. going back to August 28th when she beat up on her stablemate/rabbit Sabina Fay going on to her last 2 works where she played around and toyed with the likes of Tiago and Green Cat. She never broke a sweat either in her last pair of works!!!!!---As far as A.M. activity since her last---the streak can go on!! Based on how happy she is doing in her training, she would have to make a mistake, have a rough trip, or a bad day to get beaten. All of the above could happen. One thing the big mare does routinely is give her competition a few-lengths-head-start. She can’t seem to break with the rest out of the gate. If Life Is Sweet, Cocoa Beach or Anabaa's Creation are close and the champ stubs her toe, then look out. They have already shown that at the very least they can come close to beating her, and that shows on the Form. Betting strategy: play Zenyatta over those three and call it a day. Don’t get too cute … Zenyatta appears ready to step up in a royally big way and run one of her best races. If that happens--they won’t beat her!!!
Preview for Breeders’ Cup – Carl of CalHorses2Win, Guest Commentator for Oak Tree at Santa Anita
Zenyatta is the best filly we have seen in a long time. She's 12 for 12 and that speaks for itself. She will be the one to beat. This filly still needs to be at her best to get the job done in the Lady's Secret. She will need to improve on her last race. Anabaa's Creation is getting better and Julio Canani knows how to get to job done in big races. This mare is doing very well and she has a shot. Cocoa Beach is shipping in and she's ready for revenge. This mare has a lot of talent and she's being trained by another big trainer, Saeed bin Suroor. He's very confident that Cocoa Beach will run a huge race. I will go for a box with Cocoa Beach, Zenyatta and Anabaa's Creation. Tomorrow will be a big day for Zenyatta. Her performance will decide what we can expect in the Breeders' Cup
The Value Perspective – Tim Maas, Overlay Publications
Although Zenyatta is unlikely to offer win-bet value in the Lady's Secret (since she is at a prohibitive 2-5 in the morning line), I have her (not surprisingly) on top of the field also, but at fair odds of 2-1 to remain undefeated. Entrants that my 100% fair-odds line rates as contenders (at fair odds lower than random value, based on field size) are Lethal Heat (5-1), Anabaa's Creation (6-1), and Life Is Sweet (7-1). My fair odds on the rest of the field are 9-1 on Cocoa Beach; 10-1 on Made for Magic; 13-1 on Briecat; and 19-1 on Sweet and Flawless. Anabaa's Creation (at morning-line odds of 12-1) is the only contender offering morning-line value.
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