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By Emily Shields Review The supposed coronation of Curlin in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic ended in frustration for owner Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen, as European rivals Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator took the top two positions in the race. America’s hero Curlin had the lead running into the stretch with a wall of horses on either side, but Raven’s Pass, under Frankie Dettori, swooped up from mid pack and dove to a convincing victory over his long time rival Henrythenavigator. Neither of the European stars had ever run past 1 mile or on any surface other than turf, but grass form holds up well on the artificial surfaces.
Tiago, at 15 – 1, closed from second to last to be third, nosing out Curlin for fourth.
Raven’s Pass paid $29 for the win and the son of Elusive Quality stopped the clock in 1:59.27. Because Raven’s Pass was an invader from Europe, there was only one race of CASE data available for him.
Prerace Analysis All eyes will be on the 25th Breeders’ Cup at Oak Tree at Santa Anita today, highlighted by the appearance of Curlin, who seeks a repeat win in the $5 million Classic. Curlin dominated last year’s Classic run over 1 1/4 miles by 4 1/2 lengths, and will attempt to become only the second horse in history to complete the double today.
Curlin’s credentials are numerous, starting with his record: 11 wins in 15 starts, with over $10 million in earnings (the only horse in North American history to achieve that total). The son of Smart Strike has won four grade 1 races this year alone, including the $6 million Dubai World Cup and the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup last out. Curlin’s CASE ratings aren’t overly spectacular, but the Steve Asmussen-trainee does share the highest Coordination rating, 81, with seven other horses. Curlin will be the biggest favorite of the day, but standing in his way are eleven rivals, each deserving of being in the Classic starting gate.
Some believe that the race isn’t about Curlin at all, rather, it is a grudge rematch between Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass, both from Europe and both top turf runners in their native countries. Henrythenavigator has won six of ten starts, including four straight group 1 races this year. In two of those contests, he defeated Raven’s Pass, a three-year-old son of Elusive Quality who finally got the better of his rival last out in the September 27th Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (gr. I). The biggest question surrounding the two foreign titans is that they are both milers, neither having ever started past a mile, or on any surface other than turf.
Duke or Marmalade, the third European invader, boasts the highest Endurance rating in the field by far at 110. The son of the legendary Danehill won five straight group 1 races this year, but finished a disappointing seventh in the Priz de l’Arc de Triomphe (gr. I) last out. Duke of Marmalade has won six of fifteen starts and over $2.5 million.
As if three Europeans weren’t enough to leave Curlin a little nervous, Casino Drive is a Japanese hero who has only raced three times, but has dominated in all three of those starts. After an eleven-length demolition of a maiden race in Japan, Casino Drive, the blue-blooded brother of Belmont Stakes winners Jazil and Rags to Riches, arrived in America and thrashed the grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park by over five lengths. Unfortunately, the son of Mineshaft was withdrawn from the Belmont Stakes due to injury, but Casino Drive returned to the states and defeated older horses in an allowance race only two weeks ago over the Santa Anita Pro Ride surface.
Go Between is the most likely North American rival to upset Curlin. Since switching to synthetic surfaces, Go Between has put together a smart campaign, winning the Pacific Classic (gr. I) and the Sunshine Millions Classic, and finished second in the Hollywood Gold Cup and Santa Anita Handicap, both grade 1 races. Trainer Bill Mott campaigned Cigar, who won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Go Between has the highest Aerobic Efficiency rating in the field at 107.
Four-year-old Tiago, a half brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, has won two grade 1 races at Santa Anita, and is coming off an impressive second place finish in the Goodwood last month, where he rallied after being 10th for most of the race and finished a strong second behind Well Armed, who will be one of the favorites in the Dirt Mile earlier in the card. Student Council is Curlin’s stablemate and has a top record himself: 16 on the board finishes in 30 starts and $1.5 million in earnings. In any other race, Colonel John would be a huge favorite. The three-year-old son of Tiznow, the only horse to win the Classic twice, won the Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga this summer and won the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) at this track in April. The Eoin Harty-trainee has two bullet workouts at Santa Anita in October alone.
Champs Elysees, who will wear blinkers for the first time, Fairbanks, and Smooth Air round out the twelve horse field.
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