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By Mike Kratville If there was ever a race where the adage "pace makes the race" fit, it is this one.
Out of the 12 horses in the race, 7 of them are legitimately labeled as "pure" front-runners or horses that have to have the lead to win. Moreover, the 7 furlong distance virtually guarantees that the speed duel by as many as 7 horses will last for virtually the entire race until they all spit up the bit one by one down the lane.
Because of this pace meltdown, you should be looking only at horses which can close well and also have shown the ability to run well at the distance. Using those filters, #3 Shivaree, #4 Lion Lad, and #11 Basha's Commander rise to the top. All have won at the distance and all have also won at
There are no trainer patterns that stick out among these horses, all have jockeys which have never ridden the horses before, and none appear to have any particular edge on the others though #11 Basha's Commander is coming off a layoff and its workouts are not positive.
In this case, let the odds board be your friend and play the horse with the best odds between #3 and #4 to win and also bet a $10 exacta box involving all 3 horses and a smaller $2 part wheel of 3,4,11/1 in case one part of the entry would clunk up into the picture. Lastly, play a $1 tri part wheel of 3,4,11/1,3,4,11/1,3,4,11.
Then just sit back and enjoy a true pace meltdown..... ---- Mike Kratville is co-host of the `Pick More Winners' seminar series at Horsemens Park in |