2010 Update By Donald Harris

I think it's always best to keep it as simple as possible when handicapping any race track. I am not a big bias guy. I think the obsession over bias is way overdone. Frankly, I think handicappers can get so consumed with an alleged bias that they stop trying to pick the fastest horse. I always start with a basic pace analysis. Where is the speed going to come from? If there is a bunch of speed I can focus more on horses that like to close. And vice versa. Like I said, simple. If you have been handicapping for any length of time, you begin to have natural gut instincts after analyzing a race. Listen to your gut! That gut is reacting to years of data you have piled up in the back of your handicapping brain. Your gut knows when to back away from the wagering screen. Listen to your gut! The reason you have canceled five different wagers before the next race is because you don't have a strong opinion. It is ok to sit back and watch. You will get more out of a race when sitting back to watch with no wager then you will ever get when watching with a biased view. Get rid of the term 'dead on the board' from your vocabulary. Your confidence should not decrease on a wager because the price is going up from the morning line. Instead, you should be more willing to increase your wager. Thinking with the crowd will not lead to a positive rate of return. Start taking pride in being contrarian. Every player needs to find their comfort zone. Every player needs to have an approach. Ask yourself one question. Have you defined your approach?

 

2009 Report

Case the Race brings you insight from Andy Serling, Alan Benewitz, Rick Needham, John Pricci, and Tom Amello to help you tackle the Saratoga meet.

What kind of graveyard?

It’s been called “The Spa” and “The Graveyard of Favorites” but Andy Serling, a New York Racing Association (NYRA) TV handicapping analyst, thinks there is a better moniker for New York’s esteemed track.. “My friend Harvey Pack said that everyone calls Saratoga the graveyard of favorites; really it’s the graveyard of bad handicappers,” Serling recounts.

 

While information on the track and the schedule of events is available in the Saratoga section of the NYRA website, let’s focus on what it takes to stay out of the graveyard. 

 

 

Alan Benewitz, handicapper at Thoro-Graph and a regular contributor to Inside Racing with Jason Lebin, gave a general overview of the situation. “You have a lot of people and you have a big handle. It puts a premium on doing your homework.” He added that, “You can find good value, or good bets, in a lot of the lesser races here.”

 

Saratoga seems to favor horses with a history of success at this track. John Pricci, Executive Editor of HorseRaceInsider, believes that, "Horses do well in the North Country thanks to the cooler nights and mornings, the legendary waters, etc. All this helps them to ‘fill up’, or recover more quickly, from efforts. Since horses thrive here, they tend to race back more frequently. ‘Repeaters’ often rule at The Spa." Benewitz agrees. He says,“If [horses] have done well there in the past, then they’re likely to do well there again.”

 

Weather can be a consideration. Tom Amello, handicapper and host of Trackfacts, teaches handicapping seminars at Saratoga. Amello pointed out, “NYRA had nearly 70 races rained off the turf. Expect full fields. Carefully rate horses showing gaps in their race lines that might be explained by the rain.” 

 

 

Saratoga draws people and horses from many other venues. Benewitz identified some of the difficulties outsiders might face. When asked what the biggest surprise would be to a handicapper coming from California, he replied. “Well, I think right now, the biggest surprise would be that speed holds.   California is a lot different in that they have synthetic tracks.” For horses that are coming to Saratoga from California, he says this of finding good prospects, “What I would look for there is for horses who have maybe disappointed or not done as well as you might think [they should have]. I would look there for horses that have what we think of as dirt breeding. I would look for those horses to jump up there quite a bit.”

 

Regarding the transition of coming from other East Coast tracks to handicap at Saratoga, Benewitz said. “I’ll tell you how Saratoga is different… at Saratoga you simply have the best horse in America -- East of the Mississippi, frankly... you have a lot of expensive horses running at Saratoga every year. So what I think distinguishes it, from any other meet, is that the quality is unsurpassed.”

 

 

Benewitz is not the only one to note the quality and competitiveness that Saratoga engenders. In trying to describe what makes Saratoga different, Serling said, “I find that a lot of times, at Saratoga, people really want to win at Saratoga. I’m not suggesting that they don’t really want to win at Belmont and Aqueduct, but there is a great deal of competitiveness, and I find from an overall standpoint that the races are run in a very competitive manner.”

 

Because the quality is better on the whole, Benewitz sees another difference. “A lot of local outfits don’t do quite as well as they might at the other NY meets.”

 

 

The Saratoga experts mentioned the significance of handicapping at a track where so many of the horses are shipped from other locales.

Serling named the influence of shippers as the biggest handicapping factor at Saratoga. “The biggest difference between Saratoga and the rest of the year in New York is that you have a lot of shippers… You have to evaluate horses that haven’t been racing against the same horses. And while speed figures obviously work, they don’t really work for turf racing. So you have to have a real handle on horses that are racing from out of town….. Like everything in racing, the more ahead of the curve you are at something, the better the better you will do, and you don’t have a lot of time to make these decisions. Like anything in racing, you try to make the best decisions you can.”

 

In describing the process for making quick adjustments based on the information available, Serling added. “As far as shipping trainers, you see a guy -- a guy who is successful out of town -- and he runs a couple of short-priced horses early in the meet and they don’t run well at all. It’s reasonable to downgrade him, and vice versa if a guy comes in and his horses are doing as well or better than they do out of town. Overall, you might feel like he is a live shipping trainer. Obviously, these things don’t work to perfection. Those are judgments you have to make, and how accurately you make them is going to go a long way towards determining how well you will do.”

 

 

When asked to comment on the importance of track issues or track biases, our respondents provided varied responses and information. Even with regard to Saratoga’s reputation for having a speed-favoring track, some experts expressed reservations. Here are the highlights from each respondent:

 

 

"Saratoga is one of the stronger horse-for-course racetracks this side of synthetics."

 

 

“Over time, each surface and distance yields a winning profile. Historically, main track sprints and routes run 85% wire/stalkers and 15% closers! Over muddy tracks, longer distances help late runners. The turf profile is a function of weather (rain and heat) and race context. Horses wire over hard, dry, sun-baked courses, but stalkers and closers, quickening and making a late run are the most likely winners.”

 

“NYRA Track Superintendent Glen Kozak seems to have kept a speed-favoring Belmont main track. Handicappers will do well to carefully monitor opening week races over the Spa dirt. Any clue to the winning profile/bias will yield price horses.”

 

 

“It’s different than at Belmont… [At Saratoga] they are essentially one-turn races. While the turf races, save the turf sprints, are 2-turn races…There’s a slight difference in that...The 2-turn races at Belmont -- which are primarily mile and 1/8 races-- are very, very tricky races because they are very much determined by how they are run, and the dynamics of the race, as much if not more than by which horses are in them.   You don’t have that problem at Saratoga. What you get is a very truly run race at Saratoga.    And the turf sprints are very problematic, although people like the turf sprints… I’m not a big fan of them in general… they are tough races to handicap.… One of the things I like in dirt races are these turn-backs, versus cutting from distance races to sprints, but it doesn’t work in sprints. Horses turning back from longer distance races can’t win. And [the equivalent of] the 5 ½ furlong race at Saratoga, they run 6 and 7 [furlongs] at Belmont. There is a huge difference between even 5 ½ and even 6, if not 7 [furlongs], where speed is a very, very dangerous commodity. Winning [Saratoga’s] 5 ½ furlong races requires … not only speed, but also an ability by these horses to be able to run the 5 ½ furlongs successfully. And there are a lot of these races. We’ll have as many as 2-3 a day sometimes. And they are invariably parts of Pick 4s, or even Pick 3’s. If you are going to make money with these you’re going to have to negotiate those races. They are tricky races.”

 

“I would not get overly caught up in determining track biases…. In general we run very even races up there… They are very fair and tough races for horses to wire the fields…   I would not assume that it’s a hugely speed-friendly track.”

 

 

“At this track especially ... Pace Makes the Race!   This often-heard phrase is especially important in handicapping Saratoga's 6.0 furlong sprints.... As I look over my bias charts in preparation for this upcoming meet, I notice that 37.5% of all 6.0 furlong sprints were won on the dirt track by horses going ‘wire to wire’ in the last five meets! … Sprinters with an early speed advantage and a constant ‘pace profile,’ have produced a consistent stream of winners for me at Saratoga.”

 

“Since 1998, a stunning 32% of the route races have been won by the ‘front runners’ (and that is an exceptionally high win rate for route racing on the dirt).”

 

“On the grass, there is less of a tendency for a front runner to win, so adjust your handicapping strategy to put more emphasis on a more traditional "pace profile." Entries in route races on the turf at Saratoga are often won by the "stalking" horses, rather than the "early pressers."

 

 

The significance of post position at Saratoga was a point where there was widespread agreement that this is an important factor to consider. “I would tell handicappers that outside posts are usually pretty tough.   They can find that information in other sources, but it’s pretty true, so regard it,” Benewitz asserted. Needham broke it down a bit more. “The extreme outside post positions have not been especially productive in sprint races on the dirt in the last 5 meets, nor has Post Position #1. Posts 3 though 7 have seemingly been the best in route races, especially in those races in which you find an entry with nice early speed breaking from these ‘holes’." With regard to turf route races, he adds, “There has been a fairly decent win distribution from most posts in the turf route races, with the exception of Post #1 and the outside two posts. (assuming a full 12-horse field). “

 

Amellos’s advice is that, “outside posts are difficult to overcome on the inner turf (avoid 10-12 at 9f, 11-12 at 8.5f), the Mellon Turf (avoid 9-12 at 9f, 11-12 at 8.5f, 10-12 at 1 3/16f). That being said, top jocks atop runners with speed to gain tactical position, in a field with questionable speed to their inside, can and do win from outside posts, often at fair odds. Posts 9-12 are death in main track routes with the short run to the first turn.”

 

 

As at any track, identifying hot trainers and jockeys will help a handicapper. Benewitz uses Thoro-Graph sheets to identify patterns. “Trainers have patterns and horses as well, and to the extent that you can get rhythm.. I think it will aid you and make your meet more profitable.”

 

Amello believes that trainer intent is important at Saratoga. In addition, his research shows that 25-30 of the top trainers (at 12%), riding top jockeys, will win more than 45% of the flat races.   He names trainers Sheppard, Voss, Fout , Horgan and Sanna Hendriks as those who will vie for wins in the 9 jump races. In addition, he also identifies live jump jocks as Aizpur, Hodson & Murphy. Amello has compiled a list of 2009 Saratoga Trainer Tendencies which he provides to participants of the Saratoga seminar. He will also provide it by email on request.

 

According to Needham, “In terms of Jockey/Trainer combos ... the usual ‘Eastern Suspects’ are usually hot at Saratoga ... Todd Pletcher, John Kimmel, Allen Iwinski, Linda Rice and of course, Bobby Frankel seem to dominate. For some reason, D. Wayne Lukas has been having difficulty producing a steady stream of winners here at Saratoga, but like a ‘bouncer’, he is due to have a big meet. In terms of Jockeys keep your eyes on, [look for] Jorge Chavez, and Edgar Prado, with young Shaun Bridgmohan as your ‘sleeper’!"

 

 

Several of those we consulted mentioned specific tools they use in their handicapping. For example, Serling uses the Daily Racing Form (DRF) Formulator to help him make comparisons. He says it allows him to compare New York horses, with which he is familiar, with shippers. Amello also mentioned using the DRF Formulator.

 

Benewitiz finds that one of the advantages of using Thoro-Graph sheets is that you can see how different horses relate to one another.

 

Needham, who is known as “Trackmaster Rick”, not only uses Trackmaster, but also provides his followers with tips on how to use it effectively. 

 

 

While it is still early to comment on the Travers, Serling had this to say, “Obviously, it’s our biggest race of the year, our biggest day. We’ll see what happens. Theoretically, Rachel Alexandra could run in it…Mine That Bird is supposed to come. Summer Bird who won the Belmont is supposed to come. It’s not impossible to have a rematch of the Triple Crown winners.   Quality Road is expected….It’s possible that could turn out to be a very big matchup.”

 

 

Our respondents offered a few parting words of advice. Serling said, “You really have to be on top of it to do well there… It’s art. You have to use your skills and do your work, and then get a little lucky.” Benewitz commented that, “You’ve got to be in it to win it; you’ve got to be aware; you’ve got to be available to make a decision when the situation arises - which is no different from anywhere else.”

 

Almost ironically, Serling also recommended, “And the other thing is, don’t listen to tips! Saratoga is a town where everyone has tips and everyone thinks that they have insider information, and the insider information just isn’t that good. So make your own selections … Do your own work and stay away from tips.”

 

 

For many, Saratoga has a special meaning beyond the excitement of the races. Amello explained what the Saratoga meet means to him. “First, and foremost, it has become a 36-day reunion for me. I am fortunate to be there for 36 days. Folks I have met over the years ‘ship-in’ for a few days, a week, the entire meet. We meet, greet, laugh, lie and dine. It's been a blessing! Unfortunately, I’ve lost my handicapping Dad, my good friend Lee Tomlinson (Tomlinson numbers in DRF), and another close friend ‘Parlay’ Phil...all to cancer this year. So this meet will be different! When the weather holds, Saratoga is racings greatest venue...full fields, juveniles, lottsa turf racing, Steeplechase (which I really enjoy), and people watching. When the weather is bad...a bad day at Saratoga is better than a good day most anywhere else!” 

 

Serling thrives on the enthusiasm of Saratoga Springs and the overall atmosphere. “Saratoga Springs is a great town: a small town of maybe 20,000-30,000 people that just embraces horse racing. They love everything about it. If you are someone like me who dedicates his life to and loves racing, it’s sort of like having a girlfriend nobody likes, and when you get to Saratoga everyone loves her… It’s a very enjoyable time. It’s a lot of work. It’s not a vacation, because you work hard, but it’s pleasurable. It’s the reward for working all year in New York racing.”