Case The Race - Handicapping data and information

Hollywood Park's Future in Question

6/27/2009
At Hollywood Park this weekend, crowds will gather to watch Zenyatta, as the undefeated challenger goes to the gate once again.   Many anticipate that it will be a bright moment for the 70-year-old track. With the fate of the track in limbo, fans and horsemen are wondering, “How many more moments like this lie ahead for Hollywood Park?” 
The City of Inglewood, where Hollywood Park is located, has unveiled plans for a large scale development project of Hollywood Park and the surrounding area. Available on the City of Inglewood’s website, the May 28th, 2009 update to the plan outlines the city’s aspirations to create “a vibrant new city center in the heart of Inglewood, California.” Keeping the name Hollywood Park, but eliminating the racetrack, the plan would create a mixed use development with entertainment, retail, residential, office, civic, gaming, and recreational uses. The current Hollywood Park racetrack infield would become a public park.
While the dream of creating an oasis in an economically-depressed area many consider “the hood” certainly has its charm, many view it as no more than a dream. “Who’s going to drive to Inglewood for a city walk?” trainer Mike Mitchell asks. Mitchell, who has trained horses at Hollywood Park for 25 years, expressed skepticism about the plan. “I would just to have to think that even though the city of Inglewood has given Bay Meadows Development Company all these permits, it doesn’t mean anything because they have no backers to build. All their backers have backed out. They have no money to build this gigantic city walk that they want to put in place of Hollywood Park.”
 
But the main question for fans and those in the horse racing industry is “What will the impact be on California Horse Racing if Hollywood Park is eliminated.”
 
Current Status of Hollywood Park
According to an April 22 Bloodhorse article, Hollywood Park’s handle, and its corresponding tax contribution to the city, has been steadily dropping over the past 10 years. Southern California handicapper, Rick Harris, of Calhorse has also noticed a decline. According to Harris, “Racing in California is in disarray. At Hollywood Park things have been on a downturn for a number of years. All of their important races aren’t that important any more. The Hollywood Gold Cup is not what it was. It’s not the Santa Anita Handicap, not something as important as that. They get 4,000 people a day if that. If you shot a cannon through [Hollywood Park], you might hit someone.” 
Harris remembers better days. “I grew up on the West side of Los Angeles. I was a Hollywood Park person. That’s where I used to go. There used to be some unbelievable days there… Weekends used to be 35,000 people…. Now, you figure 10,000 is huge. There used to be a time when there was never a weekday attendance under 10,000. That’s long gone.”
Despite the reduced attendance, some handicappers are fond of Hollywood Park. When asked if Hollywood Park is important, Southern California handicapper, Toby Turrell, answered emphatically, “Yes. It is….  For me, having gone there 40 years full-time and 20 years part-time, it just seems like it was meant to be a racetrack. The soil is great for it. It’s such a great climate – near the water, with great air. It would be hard to replace that particular site if they had to… for those reasons and a few more.”
From a trainer’s perspective, Mitchell thinks highly of Hollywood Park. “I actually really like the barns at Hollywood Park. It might look like a prison camp, but [Hollywood Park has] concrete barns and great big, wide shedrows. In the summertime when it’s really hot, the barns have really nice ventilation. In the wintertime, you can put your horses on the tack and tack walk them in the shedrow.  You just don’t have that kind of room at Santa Anita because it’s so narrow.”  
Fans also agree. Carol Bader, owner of Del Mar Hat Company and longtime racing fan, adds. “I would like to see it stay for many reasons, so that we don't move any racing ‘out of the state’ for that time frame. It's nice to have that centered between Santa Anita and Del Mar.”
Impact on California Horse Racing
Aside from its importance as an individual race track, there are greater concerns about how it would impact the California Horse Racing industry if Hollywood Park were eliminated. Jerry Jamgotchian, owner of 140 race horses outside of California says, “If Hollywood Park closes, the ability to stable horses in Southern California will be severely and negatively impacted.  If you don’t have horses, you certainly don’t have horse racing.”
The handicapper’s point of view seems to be “it depends.” According to Turrell, “It depends on how they go about trying to replace it. Los Alamitos would have been a good substitute. It might be too late now though. They don’t have a viable substitute. That’s the dilemma. If they had to replace Hollywood Park, the more they could fit Del Mar into the equation, the less painful it would be. Del Mar is as good of a track as any I’ve been to, but no one knows how much it would pick up.” Even Harris, who is skeptical of the importance of Hollywood Park acknowledges that, “In the scheme of things you need more than one park…” He adds, “I don’t think [Santa Anita] could take 6 months of racing with the surface [if they were to expand their racing calendar to include the days currently served by Hollywood Park]. If they could, I don’t think that would be a problem. They get better crowds there. A lot of the trainers live in the area rather than the Hollywood Park area. But they need Hollywood Park where they need an overflow. If there were just one track there wouldn’t be enough stall space.”  Harris, who has seen not just attendance, but the number of racing days dwindling, views the lackluster performance of Hollywood Park as part of a larger theme.  “Racetracks haven’t kept up with the times. With the advent of casinos,  they are still charging admission… Should they be charging admission for the grandstand?... They aren’t the only game in town….So I’d say if Santa Anita can hold up to the stress of the days that Hollywood Park had, I don’t think Hollywood Park will be missed at all.”
However, questions of capacity and what to do with an overflow of horses are key questions for owners and trainers. According to Mitchell, “I’ve got 50 horses here [at Hollywood Park].   I can have 50 horses under the same roof. At Santa Anita, the limit there is less than that, so I would have to split my stable up and have an overflow of horses somewhere else. I really like my horses under the same roof, so Hollywood has really been great for me.” Jamgotchian sees limited opportunities at other tracks. “There is really only one other significant stabling opportunity and that is at Fairplex in Pomona. Unfortunately, they don’t have the facilities to accommodate and train the number of horses currently in training at Hollywood Park.”
 
According to Mitchell, “I guess the biggest question is: Where’s the overflow of horses going to go?” When he considers the practicalities of other tracks that are being considered, he says, “It would be really, really tough.”
Bay Meadows Land Company and the City of Inglewood
In addition to considering the impact on horse racing of losing Hollywood Park, people are not convinced that the city’s partner in the Hollywood Park project, Bay Meadows Land Company, is a reliable partner with a practical plan. The Bay Meadows Land Company proposed similar plans in San Mateo when Bay Meadows was demolished. Rather than a new development, San Mateo has a pile of rubble where the track once was. 
Jamgotchian doesn’t mince words in pointing out, “It appears to me that the Inglewood Mayor and City Council are not protecting their citizens nor considering the negative financial impact a default by the Bay Meadows Land Company would have on their city budget once the racetrack is closed."
When Mitchell tries to imagine the project, he just can see the logic in it. “There are all these open apartments by the track. You can drive a quarter of a mile down Hawthorne Boulevard to Hawthorne Mall and it’s just totally vacant. All they’ve got is a theatre there, and it’s just totally vacant. Unless they are going to build something else, I just don’t think that a city walk is going to work here. And I know that right now they don’t have any investors whatsoever. So I think Hollywood Park may be around a little longer than people think.”
Harris expresses similar doubts about seeing the Hollywood Park project implemented in its current form. “I don’t think they are going to go ahead with that project at Hollywood Park any time soon. I don’t see the economics being advantages for them to build what they say they are going to build. I think that at the meeting coming up they are going to give some alternative plan to the one we had before. I definitely don’t think they will go ahead with the full-blown plan. [For example] Santa Anita has siphoned off Santa Anita Mall where part of the parking lot was. I think there is a hospital on the other side. They have sold off parts of it and have been able to keep racing still there. Do I see something like that happening [at Hollywood Park]? Absolutely. What do you need that kind of a parking lot for? It’s just empty. So they do have space to develop something. What is that something? I’m not sure. But do I see some sort of civic endeavor there? No. I mean, it’s still Inglewood. I would be very surprised if they went ahead with this project. My guess is that you’re going to see some sort of scaled-down version whenever this proposal goes public.” 
Mitchell expressed a sentiment shared by many. “I’m hoping that in this time span that it takes for the country to turn around that there will be some investors from the horse racing industry who will buy Hollywood Park.”   With the current economic climate, time may be on Hollywood Park’s side.