By Rick Harris

 

Two scenarios for Saturday’s Californian:

Pace makes the race, or Sunland Park is the new home for thoroughbred heros.

 

The line up for this year’s Californian is populated with many front-running-type horses including the once beaten Rail Trip, his vanquisher Ball Four, the California-based-but-was-last-seen in Dubai and Churchill Downs Doug O’Neill-trained Informed, the Bobby Frankel-trained Mast Track, who captured last year’s Grade 1 Hollywood Park Gold Cup and a couple of others who figure to be non-players in the outcome of this contest.

 

The prep for this event, The Merwyn Leroy, was won by the Patrick Biancone-trained Ball Four going gate to wire over the previously undefeated Ron Ellis-trained Rail Trip. The Californian distance is 1 1/8 miles and even though Rail Trip’s sire, Jump Start, is a son of A.P. Indy, his dam, Sweet Trip, is out of a Carson City mare. Carson City is best known for his offspring to exhibit sprint race characteristics, not route ones. After watching their last encounter, I see no reason why Rail Trip will want to travel further than a mile or a mile and a sixteenth.

 

If a speed duel develops and the come-from-behinders are flying, then I look for the Sunland Park invader, Song of Navarone and the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Dakota Phone to be the ones to fear. First, Mine That Bird, exits the Sunland Derby to capture the big one in Kentucky and now Song Of Navarone, a winner of four in a row before running third against a solid field at Lone Star, looks ready to make his presence felt in the biggest race of his career. With a little luck, it would have been five in a row. His style will fit here and will be enhanced with a speed duel that compromises the front speed. Dakota Phone is the other deep closer in this field who will benefit by a speed duel. This one was beaten by a nose by Rail Trip in the Santana Mile, a race which only had four runners and Rail Trip was allowed an easy lead up font.

 

If the bulk of the speed horses take back and allow Ball Four an easy early lead, then I look forward to him be very tough to overcome. However, if the front end is hotly contested, then look for Song of Navarone or Dakota Phone to end up victorious in this year’s, and possibly the last, Californian.

 

----

 

By Rick Harris – www.calhorse.com