People who know me know that I accept the label of “pace handicapper” without argument. Starting with a look at how each horse in this particular field prefers to run, I noted that there were 2 or 3 at most who, from a cursory review of the running lines, would take the lead and set the pace. This was confirmed by a closer examination of the actual fractions for all the runners in all of their races. So the likely setup would be, as I said in my brief notes, that the race was likely to be decided in the last fraction as there were many closers.

 

There are some who say that the Belmont has always favored horses that like to run towards the front of the pack, but a track profile shows that the race (and the majority of most recent distance races) requires winners there to be strong in what is usually called sustained pace, or, predominantly a late expenditure of energy. Summer Bird ranked well and in fact dominated the field in the all-important last fraction (yes, by the compounded numbers I use, well ahead of Mine That Bird).

 

Summer Bird looks like it threw a clunker in its last race, but I’ve never believed in using only one race—even the last one—as the be-all and end-all basis for handicapping. The horse had excellent efforts in ALL of its preceding races, all of which show the late-running ability that I projected would be needed. My notes indicated that it had a couple of solid advanced form patterns as well.

 

I use a generated odds line that is where I start and end my handicapping for all races, from bottom-feeding claimers to the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races. It assigned odds of 5-1 on Summer Bird. Since it was easy to project that Mine That Bird would be sent off close to even money, Summer Bird was a solid play for me.

 

When the public sent it off at almost twice that, it was like a gift!

 

Full disclosure: I use Michael Pizzolla’s “Black Magic” handicapping software. It is the best racing information management program I’ve ever seen. I rely on its numbers from odds to pace ratings, because they work! Fellow users will note that Michael also picked Summer Bird, and might wonder if I “borrowed” his analysis. His reasoning differed on a couple of key points, and I submitted my selection to casetherace.com before he sent his out to his mailing list.

 

-         George Kaywood, handicapper for Handicapping.com

 

 

 

Summer Bird: In all of his races this colt never had an easy trip. He was 7 wide in the Kentucky Derby on a sloppy track and 5 wide in the Arkansas Derby, not to mention his 2 maiden races where he had much of the same problems. I thought that the Belmont track with its wide turns & extra distance should minimize the effect of any outside trip. This together with him being lightly raced, rested by skipping the Preakness, the addition of blinkers on, the jockey change to Desormeaux, and Birdstone breeding: these were all factors in making this selection.

 

-         The Man In White, handicapper for Postime Computer

 

 

After we ran the numbers through the Postime Computer system, it was obvious that Summer Bird would be closing. He had an amazing 5 point advantage over his rivals in the late pace category. The numbers also bore out the fact that Dunkirk and Charitable Man would be on or near the lead. This would ensure a good pace to close into. The only other competitor to worry about was Mine That Bird who is a one run closer. The jockey change to Desormeaux was another key factor in our selection. Kent had nothing to prove except to himself after last year’s heartbreak. He quietly went about his business driving Summer Bird home for the win. It was clear after looking at the facts who our selection would be.

 

-         Representative for Postime Computer Selections (Selections and comments for Postime Computer represent a consensus rather than the opinion of any one individual handicapper.)