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By Donald Harris
SHEM - Has been running competitive races against much softer. I don't think he is a legitimate win threat but that does not mean he won't have a significant impact on the race. If Alvarado is aggressive out of the gate he could end up forcing the pace issue with the other speed horse Yacht Spotter. Not only would he compromise Yacht Spotter but the quickened pace would completely change the shape of the race. Don't see him hitting the board either way.
ORDINATION - Four year old colt has only four career races under his belt. I can't take much from his win over the course. The fractions were simply too slow to make any sort of judgement. Possibility for the lower portion of the super and trifecta.
SPRING HOUSE - Big morning line favorite comes out of a good second in the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano. Out of that race he has trained in a steady fashion over at Hollywood Park. His last two drills were blue collar moves. I agree that he deserves to be favored but I do not think he is a cinch. I have seen too many So-Cal horses that have been unable to handle the Golden Gate turf course. Major contender.
SIR DAVE - New horse in the Jack Carava barn appears to be in peak career form. Gets first big class test. Value of the race.
YACHT SPOTTER - Has turned into a really nice horse for trainer Frank Lucarelli. His last two efforts over this Golden Gate turf course have been fantastic. The big question today is whether or not he will get a comfortable trip. As I mentioned earlier, his success in this race will heavily weigh on the tactics employed by Frank Alvarado on the rail horse Shem. If Yacht is allowed to stroll along on the lead uncontested there is no question in my mind he could steal this race. Major contender.
PORFIDO - Got a race under his belt off the four month layoff at Hollywood. He has been churning out similar efforts for the past couple years. He is sure to be in the mix late. Exotics contender.
COURT RULE - Does not belong in here.
LOCKFORD - Ran a good second off the bench when just missing at one mile. I liked the energy he finished with in that race. I think he is a horse that could outrun his odds and spice up the exotic picture. Exotics contender.
OBRIGADO - Finished third behind favorite Spring House in his last start. It was not his preferred race set-up. The field was very small and the pace was pedestrian. Obrigado is not a change of gears type runner. He wants a pace up front. Today should be a better scenario. In his last drill at Hollywood he looked good working a controlled six furlongs with talented stable-mate Artiste Royal. Major contender.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100 bankroll)
$20 win: #4 SIR DAVE ($20)
$10 exacta: 4,5 - 4,5,6,9 ($60)
$2 trifecta: 3,4 - 3,4 - 2,5,6,8,9 ($20)
LAST WEEK RESULTS: Loss of $10
$10 trifecta: 5 - 8 - 2,6 ($20) #5 scratched
$25 trifecta: 5 - 6,8 - 6,8 ($50) #5 scratched
$5 exacta box: 2,5,6 ($30) #5 scratched -10
NET RESULTS: Profit of 560.50
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