Parker’s Picks handicapper, John Lindley, who selected Rachel Alexandra to win, provided an overview. "While Rachel's Alexandra's win in the Preakness was by only a length, that length didn't quite tell the story of her domination.  Going into the Preakness, she appeared to be a cut above her male counterparts based on consistency, with only Mine That Bird and Big Drama showing recent speed figures that would be competitive with Rachel Alexandra.  The only real question was: would Rachel Alexandra be able to repeat her performances on two weeks' rest?  Clearly, she did. While again only winning by a length, she first dominated the other horses with early/tactical speed by running some quick early fractions -- it should be noted that the horses who were nearby her early (Big Drama, Friesan Fire, Pioneerof The Nile -- all considered huge threats by most handicappers) may have been done in by Rachel's raw early speed as all four faded to run out of the money.  In fact, the horses that finished 2nd (Mine That Bird), 3rd (Musket Man) and 4th (Flying Private) were 13th, 8th and 11th respectively early in the race.  So, while not winning by a margin that many may have hoped she would, she did dominate her foes by controlling the race start to finish."

 

Frank DiTondo, author of The One Minute Handicapper, and our current guest commentator for Belmont, uses an approach based on identifying “betting situations” (his term for the angles used to identify prospects). According to DiTondo, there were 2 betting situations in favor of Rachel Alexandra. The betting situations were: the jockey switch and the change from a trainer with a lower winning rate to one with a higher rate.

 

“”The key situation and the deal-maker was Borel’s unprecedented history-making $66,000 decision to go from the Derby winner to Rachel Alexandra.” In addition, DiTondo noted that “[Rachel Alexandra switched] from a 14% winning trainer to Asmussen at 21% and an Eclipse winner.” When looking at trainer statistics, DiTondo’s approach suggests that a switch like this would have a positive association with her performance.  

 

In addition to the betting situations mentioned, DiTondo also mentioned several other important considerations in favor of the filly. According to DiTondo, these included:

 

1)       Rachel Alexandra’s 108 Beyer rating in last race was highest in 2009 of all Preakness contenders.

2)       She had a 5 pound weight advantage.

3)       Her versatile running style allows her to go wire to wire or stalk the pace.

4)       She was the only Preakness runner to win on fast, wet, or synthetic surfaces.

 

Handicapper Terry Sarnoskie, of ContendorsWins, relied on a system of pluses and minuses to select Rachel Alexandra. “According to our ratings, the race favored a front-running horse. Rachel Alexandra had our top Pro rating and also our top Power Rating. The biggest early threat to her was Big Drama and Mine That Bird was the obvious best closer.”  Sarnoskie explained.

 

When asked to elaborate on his system, he provided additional details. “Our Quick Start Plus Report (sorted on Power Rating) assigns a ‘+ ‘ to likely front runners and a ‘-‘ to likely closers. If 4 of the top 5 Power-rated horses are ‘+ ‘ horses, then the race favors a ‘-‘ (closer) otherwise the race favors a ‘+ ‘ (front runner). The Preakness only had 3 ‘+ ‘ (front-running) horses in the top 5 Power-rated horses, making it a race favorable to a ‘+ ‘  (front runner). The 2 other factors that uncover the front runners are the Early Speed Rating (which looks at last 10 races) and the Pro Rating (for the last 3 races at or near the lead at all points of call ). With both factors, the higher the better. The Preakness winner's Pro rating was 5 points better than the next best horse, Big Drama, and was the 3rd best early speed by just 2 hundredths of a point to the 2nd best PAPA CLEM. Big Drama had the best Early Speed Rating.”