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In a recent article (Handicappers Reflect on the Kentucky Derby and Look Towards the Preakness Stakes), Michael Gooley (one of the contributors to the piece) highlighted a few things about the latest Kentucky Derby and pointed out that Mine That Bird had a high Dosage Index. Yes a HIGH Dosage. The typical interpretation of the Dosage for Derby handicapping is that lower is better, with horses having less than 4.0 being particularly well suited to the Derby (among other races of distance).
Case The Race contacted Michael for a respone (see below). Case The Race has also contacted Steve Roman author of "Dosage: Pedigree and Performance" and has done some more looking into issues with Dosage in recent years in The Battle over the Dosage Index Resurfaces – With a Twist.
From Michael Gooley
"Winners of the Kentucky Derby have won at both ends of the Dosage Index and I think the tool does an excellent job of identifying the contenders in the Derby. Below are the winners of the Kentucky Derby for this decade provided by BloodHorse.com and as you can see the Dosage Index is a powerful tool to use when handicapping the Kentucky Derby: BIG BROWN and FUNNYCIDE won with a low Dosage Index that favored distance and stamina pedigree, but MINE THAT BIRD and GIACOMO won with speed pedigree as indicated by their high Dosage Index. It also appears that the average Dosage Index is trending higher with recent winners. Five of the winners listed below had a Dosage Index over 3.00. One possible way this knowledge can be applied to future Derby’s could be to narrow the large field in the Derby down to say six horses by taking the three horses with the highest dosage which worked splendidly this year, and then take the three horses with the lowest dosage index and apply fundamental handicapping factors from this group of six to hopefully identify the winner. This is just one way the dosage index can be used in my opinion but I do like the tool in general for handicapping the Kentucky Derby and I think it is very effective for this particular race. No tool is perfect as we all know."
"Following are the Dosage Indexes for all the Derby winners this decade:"
MINE THAT BIRD (2009) 5.40
Big Brown (2008) 1.67
Street Sense (2007) 2.14
Barbaro (2006) 2.41
Giacomo (2005) 4.33
Smarty Jones (2004) 3.40
Funny Cide (2003) 1.53
War Emblem(2002) 3.40
Monarchos (2001) 1.40
Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) 3.67
CASE Comments
The Dosage of Derby winners has been increasing in recent history. Four of the last 12 winners have had DI over 4.00. Among the horses in recent history is Real Quiet, who many may remember was a nose from the Triple Crown in 1998, and Charismatic who also had a dramatic shot at the Triple Crown in 1999 (breaking his front left leg in the Belmont but still finishing third). This trend may not be consistent with the theoretical framework of the Dosage for Derby usage, but may be an interesting angle to think about. Others have noticed this trend, and we have included a few quotes and links below.
“So far, since the derby began in 1875, only four winners have had dosages higher than 4.00; however, all of those were relatively recently. They were Strike The Gold in 1991, Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999 and Giacomo in 2005.” Note: Comment did not include Mine That Bird in 2009.
“In recent years, however, several horses with no Solid or Professional chefs-de-race in the first four generations of their pedigrees — and indeed, a few with Dosage Indexes of above 4.00 — have managed to win the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, highlighting the issue of increasing speed and decreasing stamina in contemporary American thoroughbred pedigrees. For example, 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo has a Dosage Index of 4.33 and no Solid or Professional points in his Dosage Profile.” “The average DI in the past 11 years is 3.08 and that includes REAL QUIET'S 5.29, CHARISMATIC'S 5.22 AND GIACOMO'S 4.33.” Note: Comment did not include Mine That Bird in 2009.
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