|
Last weekend’s stunning upset by Mine That Bird left many handicappers in a bit of a daze. Any stir that the last minute scratch of I Want Revenge caused was quickly overshadowed by the actual results of the race and the longshot win that left many people scratching their heads. Was this just a fluke, or did the handicapping community miss something? More importantly, what does it mean for future races?
Four handicappers: Mike DeAngelo from APlusThorobred.com; CWayne from Picks and Plays; Gord Elder from Fast Track Simulcapping; and Michael A. Gooley from TrackPro.com offered their comments on the Kentucky Derby and their answers to the question, “Will this change your strategy for the Preakness Stakes?”
Here are their comments:
Will Bird be the Word or is all of This Absurd?
Before Derby day, Mine That Bird was destined to be a mere footnote in 2009 Triple Crown trivia and heading back to New Mexico in Chip Wooley's one horse trailer hitched to the back of a pickup truck to take out his frustrations on the somewhat less than prime time Sunland circuit. But Louisville was transposed to the Twilight Zone Saturday with Calvin Borel engineering a script that would make Rod Serling jealous. Like a rocket gliding over the wet fast mud and clinging to the rail in trademark Borel fashion, the last place finisher in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile blew past a field that had him far outclassed according to the experts. As the winning margin widened to 6 3/4 lengths, Borel's grin widened from ear to ear. Mine That Bird went from last to first in a shocking display of finishing speed and the tote board lit up like a Christmas tree.
So, where do we go from here? Only one thing is certain. You won't get 50/1 in the Preakness. My guess is that you'll get between 4/1 and 8/1 depending on field size and the quality of the competition. But if he wins, you'll be lucky to get even money in the mile and a half Belmont where Bird's daddy Birdstone ran down Smarty Jones five years ago in similar style. As fans, we'd all love to see another Triple Crown champion and you have to like Chip Wooley's story. As handicappers, we know the single most important factor in predicting performance is a horse's last race. Bred for distance, the Bird's task may be difficult if a few speedsters enter the Preakness. But strange things happen in Maryland as we all have seen and Borel has the experience and the motivation to get into the history books as he nears the close of his storied career. For my money, I want to take the full two weeks to see how the Bird came out of the Derby and to crunch my numbers as the time draws near. Whatever the outcome, Chip Wooley and the Bird will not be going home to New Mexico in a one horse trailer towed by a pickup truck. From here on out, this Bird flies first class!
-Mike DeAngelo, President of APlusThorobred.com
One-Time Fluke or Horse Returning to Form?
With his impressive win in the Derby, Mine That Bird has to be considered as a major contender in the Preakness. With the field not yet set, it’s far too early to attempt any real analysis, so what we’re left with is trying to determine if this is a one-time fluke or a horse returning to form.
As a 2 year old on Woodbine’s synthetic track, the Bird scored 4 victories out of 5 attempts including 3 stakes races and was named Canada’s male juvenile for 2008. Purchased for only $9,500.00 his then owner decided to sell him privately. His new owners sent him to Santa Anita where he finished last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This performance earned him a one way ticket to Sunland Park for his 3 year old campaign where he failed to win in his only two outings.
Rightfully overlooked as a Derby contender, his 6 ¾ length victory, the largest in the past sixty plus years, makes Mine That Bird a bit of an enigma. Granted he got an incredible ride from Calvin Borel, but it was the Bird that delivered the speed to come from last in a 19-horse field to win. He does have greatness in his blood; his sire won the 2004 Belmont and his grandsire the 1996 Derby.
With the second largest payoff in Derby history, the question becomes was there any way to spot this longshot? No, not really. How do you identify a longshot? Look for big numbers in the morning line odds. How do you pick a longshot that wins? Skill, hard work and research or, alternatively, a little luck.
If Mine that Bird is the real deal or just a one hit wonder remains to be seen, but on May 16th , I’ll be rooting for the Bird whether I bet on him or not!
- CWayne from Picks and Plays
This Will Change My Strategy
[The Kentucky Derby outcome] will change my strategy looking at the Preakness in two ways. Obviously the performance of Mine That Bird in the Derby as a one-run-closer means he has to be reconsidered. It was the first time he really ran that style, and having found how to run he may be for real. Second, it is a reminder to look closer at every horse and consider all relevant angles before coming to a conclusion. Our PACE algorithm had Mine That Bird as its third choice (http://www.simulcap.com/DBY2009.HTM) but still I was too inflexible to try and find out why. - Gord Elder from Fast Track Simulcapping Mine That Bird at the Top of the Dosage Index (updated 5/8/09)
I will not be changing my handicapping for the Preakness Stakes. However … I think the handicapping for the Kentucky Derby should re-emphasize the importance of the Dosage Index which seems can be used at both ends of the Dosage Index spectrum. For your readers who might not be familiar with the Dosage Index, it is defined at ThoroughbredChampions.com as follows: “Dosage is a mathematical analysis of the strengths in a thoroughbred pedigree based upon the location of certain outstanding sires in its family.” Basically it’s a way of quantifying pedigree. From my understanding the lower the Dosage Index the more distance the horse favors and the higher the index the more speed the horse carries.. This year it seemed many handicappers overlooked the Dosage Index and were overly concentrating on recent finishes and Beyer speed ratings generated from the big prep races such as the Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Bluegrass Stakes. In addition, a great deal of attention was paid to the workouts of the contenders in the week leading up to the Derby and other factors such as racing surface. I did not read or hear too much about the Dosage Index this year except for an excellent article in the Special Reprint Edition of the 135th Kentucky Derby published by the Daily Racing Form. However, a look at the Dosage Index for MINE THAT BIRD at 5.40 clearly pointed him out as the winner of the Kentucky Derby if you had used just this one factor alone for this particular race. My top pick at Trackpro.com was MUSKET MAN who had a Dosage Index of 4.00, the 2nd highest in the field and he paid $12.00 to show, however I did not list MINE THAT BIRD because of other factors I use other than Dosage to select winners on a daily basis.
Listed below are the top ten horses with the highest Dosage Index that ran in the 2009 Kentucky Derby:
As you can see, the Dosage Index proved to be an extremely powerful handicapping tool in picking the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby this year and a $2.00 triple key for a total cost of $4.00 with MINE THAT BIRD over PIONEER OF THE NILE AND MUSKET MAN returned a whopping $41,500.60!!! There is no doubt in my mind that the Dosage Index is a powerful handicapping tool for the Kentucky Derby in particular. In handicapping most races other than the Derby, it usually pays to closely analyze speed figures, workouts, recent finishes, distance, pace, and the many other fundamentals of good handicapping practices. All of these variables are extremely important in picking winners consistently but in the Kentucky Derby for some reason the Dosage Index, in my opinion, seems to be the primary tool that pinpoints the probable winner at both ends of the Dosage Index spectrum. Well, at least it paid off big time this year!!
-Michael A. Gooley, Trackpro.com
|