POST TIME: 4:43 PM EST—A very high quality field of filly and mare sprinters take to the dirt sprint course going the 6 furlong distance. Over the past week, the Calder speed bias has strengthened and the rail looks dead. Check out how they ran on Friday to confirm these observations are holding.
As many as six contestants will set a brisk, but not overly demanding, early pace with no more than two lengths separating them all. #1 Orinoquia (6-1) and #8 Silk Ridge (20-1) will take up residence at that back but no more than four or five lengths from the leader.
Key to finding a winner in this race is to look for a front runner positioned off the rail that can stalk just behind the more tenacious wire-to-wire types and have enough left to punch through in the drive. #6 Rate of Exchange (3-1) looks to fit our criteria extremely well. She will sit two lengths off the leader on the outside, her stretch-to-wire times are excellent, she is making her third race off the layoff with her form cycle is suggesting a nice move forward here today. Trained by the red hot Marty Wolfson who is banging out winners at a 31% clip under this criteria. Luis Saez is 5 for 8 when riding for Wolfson. Rate of Exchange has shown an affinity for the surface and the drop in class is a nice bonus.
#3 Passage of Time (10-1) may appear over matched here but don’t count her out. If she runs back to anything close to her August 14th race, watch out. The move up, trainer stats and layoff are a concern but the price should be right.
#4 Sailing Time (5-1) is taking a big step up but has very good current form and is laying down sharp works and will put in a strong race off the layoff. Stephen Dimauro is 21% with winners last out. She absolutely relishes the Calder surface (10/12 in the $).
#2 Ladbadeel (2-1) will be the chalk and gives Wolfson another strong contender. No question she is the speed of the race but the big number posted after a long layoff and dull works suggest to me that Ladbadeel will regress in this one.
Here’s how I see the field finishing:
Win = #6 Rate of Exchange (3-1)
Place = #3 Passage of Time (10-1)
Show = #4 Sailing Time (5-1)
#2 Labadeel (2-1)
#1 Orinoquia (6-1)
#5 Browning (12-1)
#7 Bereba (4-1)
#8 Silk Ridge (20-1)
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Superfecta 6 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,7 (Total = $64)
$10 Exacta 1,3,4 with 6 (Total $30)
Go Fast and Win!
