One more race from Calder Race Course for the Chalk Eating Weasel. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed what I’ve had to say and managed to profit from it as well. I’ll be back again if the good folks here at Case the Race allow me, and you can visit me at www.donteatthechalk.com.
For this Saturday’s race I’m going right to the day’s feature event, race number 11 in your program, the 8th Running of The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap for 3 and up registered Florida Breds.
In case you were not aware, today is Florida Million Day featuring 8 stakes races with a total purse of One…Million…Dollars. The forecast as of this writing is for mild, (upper 70’s to low 80’s) sunny weather so the races on the turf should remain on the turf. This is important to the 11th race even though it is being run on dirt because two of the entries are also entered in 10th race. No doubt they are hoping to get the race washed off the grass and run on their favored, sloppy main-track. If the race stays on the grass, as I expect it will, then #4 Imawildandcrazyguy and #7 Temo’s Dream will likely scratch off the turf and run in the 11th.
Trainer Marty Wolfson has lured Julien Leparoux fresh out of the Breeders’ Cup to ride all of his entries including #3 It’s a Bird in our race of interest. The race features a couple of other horses of interest including #2 Too Many Toyz who at one point in his career was dueling down the stretch with Dry Martini. While Dry Martini has gone on to become a serviceable stakes contender, Too Many Toyz has struggled in obscurity reduced to beating up on non-winners of one in optional claimers for a 16k tag. He has won his last three efforts in this company.
The other interesting horse is Imawildandcrazyguy a winner of over 600k in his racing career. Unfortunately for this crazy guy, most of that cash was earned as a 2 and 3 year old including a trip around the oval at Churchill Downs in the KY Derby.
This race has no bona fide horses that consistently go to the lead and must be a pace handicappers nightmare. It will also be a nightmare for Imawildandcrazyguy who definitely needs a fast pace to run at.
The others in this 7 horse field to be eliminated include the #1 Hal’s My Hope trained by Barry Rose. Also know as Hal’s My Hopeless by the Chalk Eating Weasel, hopeless Hal has not won in 2 years. Hal would make a good claiming horse, but is not much as a stakes entry.
The other toss will be the aforementioned Too Many Toyz. As written already, Toyz has been padding his win stats against first level optional claimers. I think his recent 98 Beyer’s fig is a bit inflated by virtue of running over a sloppy sealed track which always seems to improve the figs at Calder. I expect he will revert to his claiming horse speed on a dry track which may be good enough to get a piece of the purse but not the golden ring.
The number four contender this week is the 3 year old #6 Pound Foolish who will be ridden by this meet’s hot apprentice Luis Saez (32% for the Tropical). Pound Foolish pressed the pace on the turf in the G3 Calder Derby back on October 17 before giving way to more accomplished veterans like Sal The Barber. The Foolish one should appreciate the Turf to Dirt move and, like his jockey, is more likely to improve than some of the aforementioned older runners.
Contender number three is the #7 Temo’s Dream. TD is another 3 year old on the improve, and Joe Bravo has come all the way down from Joisey to ride him (among others). Placed 2nd by disqualification two races ago in the 75k Needles, TD should be an early pace factor and if no one is inclined to go with him, could find himself with an easy front running trip.
The #2 contender is Dream Maestro. The Maestro has not performed as well since coming back from a brief hiatus from May to August. But then, he hasn’t gotten to run at what seems to be his best distance (9 furlongs) as he will today. The Maestro is 5 of 6 in the money including 2 wins at this distance and was running well against stronger fields earlier in the year. A return to his Winter/Spring form would make him a threat against all of these except maybe…..
The choice to win It’s a Bird. It’s a Bird is the only bona fide graded stakes horse in a field comprised mostly of high priced claimers or allowance types. I can forgive his last two outings over a sloppy Monmouth track where, maybe, he just didn’t like the footing, and the G1 Woodward where even Marty Wolfson admitted he was simply overmatched, and he was. However, here he is clearly the class of the field and should have no trouble dispatching this group of has-beens and wannabes.
Naturally the problem will be the It’s a Bird will not be a secret and will hold no value as a win bet. To make use of It’s a Bird you will have to key him in the exotics vertically and horizontally. Single him in the pick 3 (too bad this race is not involved with the pick 4) and go vertical in the tri and super singling him on top. $12.00 will buy you a #3/all/all/all 0.10 super ticket; then hope for chaos in the rest of the field.
Choices
#3 It’s a Bird
#5 Dream Maestro
#7 Temo’s Dream
#6 Pound Foolish
