By Frank Di Tondo
The following are Betting Situations for Saturday’s 8th at Belmont using the One Minute Handicapper “Betting Situations” concept for Fast Dirt track.
PEGASIAN (#6) 9/2 Morning Line
1) More Favorable Post: From Posts 11 and 10 in last 2 starts
2) Conditions: Going from Open N1X to Restricted NY State N1X. More competitive in 2008 against New York State breeds.
3) Jockey Change: Lezcano 13 for 27 (48%) at Belmont e
4) Preferred Distance: 2nd by ½ length at 7F on dirt in Saratoga despite BOBBLING and STEADIED at start.
5) From Turf/Synthetic to Dirt: 1 for 6 on Turf/Synthetic. More competitive on dirt.
6) Trainer Stats: ROI $ $3.48 in dirt races. Jockey Trainer Combination. Serpe/Lezcano 2 for 2 with ROI of $11.30.
7) Troubled Trip(s) 7 Wide and Steadied in last 2 races.
KATSKILL BAY (#4) 4/1(2nd choice) Morning Line
1) Drop in Company: From NYS Restricted Stakes Race to N1X. Ran 3rd on sloppy track.
2) Jockey : Stuardt stays aboard
3) Trainer Stats: Ubillio 22% win rate 2009. Trainer Jockey Combination Ubillio/Stuardt Belmont 1 for 2 with ROI of $6.00 and 10 for 55 (18%) all tracks with ROI of $2.22
4) Wet to Dry Track; A win and a second in 3 starts on fast dirt. a 3rd ( last start in NY Listed Stakes Race) in 2 starts on wet dirt
5) 5) Workout: A bullet( 4Ffst:47H 1/48) work on 5/10
SLAVIN (# 8) 3/1 Morning Line (Favorite )
1) Conditions: From Open 50K Starter Allowance to Restricted State Allowance
2) Jockey: C Velasquez aboard for 1st time in last race win and stays.
3) Trainer Stats: Domino 2 for 5 at Belmont and 24 % for 2009 Jockey Trainer Combination Domino/Velasquez 40% ( 2 for 5) at Belmont ROI of $2.82 and 40% ( 4 for 10) 08/09 with ROI of $5.97
4) Wet to Dry: A win and two 3rds in 6 fast dirt starts. Won by 31/2 in only start on wet (sloppy) track in Open Company last start. May be heavy favorite if wet track.
5) Workout: 5/11 Bel 4f fst: 48b
Bottom of Exotic Contenders: Monte Carl (#2) at 8/1. Won Great Classic (#5) at 5/1 and Head Heart Hoof (#7) at 10/1
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Frank Di Tondo – Author of One Minute Handicapper
