HANDICAPPERS CORNER
Tips from the best!
Bob Ike
Boomer Wry
Donald Harris
Frank Di Tondo
Paul Lambrakis
Tim Maas
Toby Turrell
Donald Harris - 4/24/09
The most exciting two minutes in sports provides the horseplayer a unique opportunity to detonate the tote board. I've been asked to give some general advice on how I would approach this race from the gambling side. After making a list of one hundred different angles to consider, I decided brevity and simplification would be a better route to take. So my advice is this, PICK A LANE. I have never been a big fan of the shot gun approach. In other words, when a gambler starts throwing darts with multitudes of opinions surrounding one race. I view that approach as the slot playing horseplayer. The horseplayer is supposed to be the antithesis of the slot player. The true horseplayer enjoys the challenge of deciphering a complex puzzle. Slot players are empty vassals looking for those lottery balls to come up right. PICK A LANE. We should be thinking, bet a little to win a ton. If you like a big priced runner, don't hesitate to leverage the entire race around that horse. Make sure if that big price comes in you end up moving up a tax bracket. Go for the jugular. Don't be the player who visualizes the race correctly and finds a way to lose money. The tighter your opinion is (the fewer number of horses used) the more power you give your bankroll. Go to the window with a clear, concise opinion. And then let fly.
Bob Ike - 4/17/09
Although I have not yet narrowed my Kentucky Derby choices or key horses, I'm pretty set on a betting strategy. It's the same one I've used for the past few years, going back to my best Derby score ever in the 2006 running.
That year I came up with a trifecta strategy that played two separate tickets. Each ticket keyed two runners on top (Barbaro and Lawyer Ron), with Steppenwolfer as my "underneath" key (meaning he had to finish second or third). I simply filled in the other two spots with the "All" button, resulting in two $36 plays.
When Barbaro romped home ($14.20) and Steppenwolfer got up for third, I scored big when longshot Bluegrass Cat finished in the second spot. My total investment was $72 and the trifecta returned $5,809.20 for a buck. It's safe to say I will be using the same strategy this year, trying to catch lightning in a bottle once again.
www.bobikepicks.com
Boomer Wry - 4/10/09
When betting the Kentucky Derby, look for value. When you are considering horses for the Derby there are several things to look for: pedigree to run the distance, ability to run from off the pace, good post position, high percentage winning jockeys, horses with experience running in wet or sloppy conditions (if applicable, which often occurs in Louisville the 1st Saturday in May), and horses from races with big fields as this experience comes in handy when racing in the 20-horse field that is The Kentucky Derby.
First of all, handicapping the Derby is about getting value. Favorites don’t win the Derby any more often than they win other races. In fact, they win a little less often. Favorites only win about 33% of the time overall. You’re dealing with three-year-olds, which makes it even a little more unpredictable. Also, I’m not a big fan of front-runners in the Derby. If you have a horse that needs to be up front early to win, that’s usually not going to work for the Derby, because with this many horses, the front end is usually hotly contested. Of front-runners who have won the Derby, only a few come to mind. War Emblem and Go for Gin are two I can think of. In both cases, I bet on them because they had what I determined to be “lone” speed. That usually doesn’t happen. These days with a 20-horse field, it’s unlikely that one or even two horses will get away on the front end. I look for horses with big closing kicks. I also look for horses from big fields. I like those that have run in large fields recently for 2 reasons: They are used to traffic and they have probably faced a tougher group than the horse that competed in a short field. I’ll be looking for horses that can thrive in what will be – for lack of a better term – a 20-horse train wreck.
Overview of Contenders
• Old Fashioned - ran well in Arkansas, but it was on a strong speed bias.
• Quality Road - was running on a speed bias at the Gulf Stream, where they had multiple track records set that day.
• Dunkirk didn’t get into the Derby, baring a scratch, because of earnings. But I think he could “scratch in” to the Derby. If he does, I think he will be a contender.
• Pioneer of the Nile defeated I Want Revenge twice.
• I Want Revenge just came right back and won twice in New York after being defeated by Pioneer of the Nile.
• The Pamplemousse – he got injured so he’s no longer a contender. Before the injury though, I wasn’t sold on him because he is a front-runner and didn’t beat what I believed to be quality fields in California.
• Musket Man - I’ve been impressed by Musket Man, the horse that just won the Illinois Derby.
Basically, you’re looking for value. I’ll also be watching Dunkirk. If he can earn enough by the Derby, or if there is a scratch, which is likely, he could have a chance.
Post Position
The lousy post-positions of the Derby are either the extreme inside or the extreme outside. The auxiliary gates are gates 15-20. I think there might have been one horse… I think Smarty Jones might have won from the auxiliary gate. I don’t remember… I think you almost have to go back to Ferdinand to find a horse that won from the rail. Find a horse in the middle. Let’s face it. Field sizes in the United States right now are really short. Most of these horses are not used to running in a 20-horse field. Traffic problems in the first turn are always a problem. You want to have horses that at least have good post-positions and good opportunities to overcome the traffic that bottles up in the first turn.
Pick Winning Jockeys
Don’t play a rider with a 10% win rate in the Derby. Take the smaller percentage riders and throw them out.
Look for Value
If you like a horse in a 20-horse field and he is not the favorite… you should be looking at 8, 10, or 20 to 1 odds. You get the main value in those bets.
Weather
Louisville frequently gets rain the first Saturday in May. It’s probably rained more often than not. Obviously, if the track ends up in a muddy, or slow, or sloppy condition, you want to look for pedigree and horses that have run in that type of weather.
free picks from Boomer
Interview with Boomer Wry
Paul Lambrakis - 4/3/09
I try not to get caught up in the hype of any one horse or attached to any one horse [before the Derby].
I’ll look at past performances and the whole field of horses when the time comes and try to handicap it just like I would any other race.
There are a number of things I look for in the Derby. I try to stick with horses that ran well as two-year olds, especially those that showed talent early on by posting some sort of convincing win and then were moved into stakes races. I’ll also look at the weight carried in recent races. In the Derby, each horse will be asked to carry 126 pounds, so I’ll be looking for horses that won a race or ran well carrying at least 122 pounds. As far as distance goes, I prefer horses that have run well at one and one eighth of a mile. That’s the threshold for me. If they can get one and one eighth of a mile, they can probably handle the one and a quarter mile distance of the Derby. Artificial surfaces are an X-factor, especially in California. It’s not clear how that will translate to the Derby, [where there will be a dirt track]. It will be a huge plus if any of the horses ran well on dirt elsewhere or started their careers at Churchill Downs.
I’ll also look at how the race is going to shape up. If there appears to be a lot of speed, but no fastest-of-the-fast, then I’ll look for something off-pace. If there is little or no speed, I’ll look for one speed horse; lone speed can be especially important.
Finally, have conviction in your opinion. Don’t let anyone talk you out of your opinion. When you are indecisive, you can easily be swayed. I learned my lesson long ago when I switched my Derby horse at the last minute only to see my original choice win at good odds.
free picks from Paul
Paul Lambrakis – Author of The 10-Cent Superfecta
Frank Di Tondo - 3/27/09
With the Florida Derby, the Santa Anita Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes coming up, the next two or three weeks will be huge for handicapping the Kentucky Derby. These races will separate the contenders from the pretenders. In the South, the horses to watch are Old Fashioned and Friesan Fire. In the East, three horses look like they might be contenders: Quality Road, Beethoven, and Theregoesjojo. In the West, Pioneer of the Nile and The Pamplemousse both look like they might be strong possibilities. The concern with the horses in the west, though, is that those horses are used to running on synthetic surfaces and the Derby is a dirt track. Whether they will be able to compete will depend on their ability to transfer to dirt.
Frank Di Tondo – Author of One Minute Handicapper
Interview with Frank Di Tondo
Tim Maas - 3/20/09
There's an old thoroughbred handicapping maxim that says, "Never bet on a horse to do something that it hasn't been able to do before." In the context of the Kentucky Derby, the ten-furlong (1-1/4 miles) distance of the race (which the young three-year-olds in question have generally not negotiated previously) presents particular challenges. The Derby will often go not to the horse that has shown the most impressive pre-race performances, but to one that has been exhibiting a steady pattern of improvement, and that has been prepared specifically to run its best race ever to this point in the Derby. This is particularly true if betting value is taken into consideration, since the horse that "everybody" is talking about will be more likely to go off at low odds that don't justify the risk of a wager. The large field size of the Derby places a premium on keeping an open mind about the winning chances of every horse in the race, and comparing those chances with the horse's odds, rather than focusing on paring the field down one by one until only the horse that seems likeliest to win -- but that is also likely to go postward as an underlay -- is left.
Articles by Tim Maas:
Betting Value: The Key to Getting the Most for Your Thoroughbred Wagering Dollar
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