Preakness 2008 Analysis
Our Preakness analysis will focus on the top three finishers; Big Brown, Macho Again and Icabad Crane.
Let's start with Big Brown's numbers and discuss their implication for the Belmont Stakes, a mile and a half race (12 furlongs).
Big Brown:
Coordination - Excellent
Aerobic Efficiency - Excellent: this is the number that sticks out when you look at his performance. There are times when a large "A" may give some concern (i.e. "Bounce"). In this CASE, the high "A" is accomplished with a relatively high "E": they compliment each other. The end result is Big Brown was cruising. His effort was more focused on breathing than exerting himself.
Stride Quality - below average for him; however nothing to worry about given his Coordination and ease with which he won the race.
Endurance - Excellent: his best yet.
The Preakness appeared to unfold like a prep race for Big Brown:
He had to follow (hence dirt in the face).
He was boxed / trapped against the rail.
He rated back and moved outside - avoiding further traffic issues.
Turned loose from the 3/16th pole to the 1/8th under a hand ride.
He came home without duress (Excellent C, A, & E).
With the Belmont stretching out in distance, Big Brown has set himself up perfectly for the challenge. He's as fresh as he can be after the first two legs.
Macho Again was a contender going into the Preakness based on CASE data. This is a horse that looked good going into the Lanes' End, but didn't seem to respond to the synthetic surface at Turfway. Here is a CASE STUDY on Macho Again.
The first thing that jumps out of Macho Again's CASE profile is the "C" on the dirt tracks: Excellent at (80 - 81). He had a great "A" & "E" (given the Pace of the race) in the Derby Trail which was a good inidcator of his Preakness readiness. His "S" has always been very good and respectable: consistent. However, the "E" rating is the most prominent feature of his profile. Ironically, Icabad Crane had the same trait: a great kick. In essence both horses have been able to maintain High E's due to a strong kick.
What is a strong kick? During the rigors of a race, a horse's stride begins to deteriorate. The rhythm of a stride transitions into a cadence that allows the horse to continue his (or her) gait, and consequently diminishes their kick. One can see this change when two or three hoofs are visibly on the ground at the same time. Both Macho Again and Icabad Crane had instances where they were able to keep their stride from deteriorating longer into the final stretches; and hence this enabled each horse to drive home with a stronger stride. This meant a greater "kick" at the end of their races and hence a higher "E".
Icabad Crane's best "C" came at Turfway on the synthetic. He seemed to maintain a very good "A" with excellent "E's" when running under 9 furlongs at Aqueduct and Turfway. He had a good enough "S" (consistent and reducing slightly with distance). Once again it is his previous "E's" that should be highlighted. I really liked this horse coming into the Preakness. He had won the Federico Tesio on 4-19-08 setting himself up perfectly for the run at Big Brown. The next question is how much did the Preakness take out of him. With an "A" of 50, it doesn't bode well for Icabad Crane's return to New York.
In our next editorial will take the pre-race analysis to the Belmont. As Big Brown runs at history, we'll look at his opponents through the eyes of CASE data.
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