Kentucky Derby 2008 Analysis
Welcome to our analysis of the Kentucky Derby 2008!
Background
For many of you who have discovered CASE data, and the CASE indices descriptive qualities, this and future editorial will bring unique perspective into the language of CASE. What is the language of CASE?
CASE utilizes mathematics and its many disciplines to describe the essence of what horseman have been observing for millenniums: a lifetimes honing of the horseman's eye. In essence, this means giving qualitative numbers to race horse in motion and hence bringing to life a horse's:
C: Coordination - that inherent ability to organize 4 legs & hooves with body & head into one fluid motion. With an efficient coordination, all effort is focused to moving swiftly providing quickness and speed.
A: Aerobic Efficiency - through the trails of competition, a normal horse's ability to breath can be taxed. The aerobic efficiency can monitor a horse's utilization of "air", and hence prepare the observer for trends from race to race.
S: Stride Quality - the innate ability of each horse to reach and cover ground with each cyclic stride. A big stride takes big steps each time the horse sets a hoof down and reaches for more. Stride Quality should be viewed in reference to the surface of a race (i.e. S is generally higher for horses racing on Turf or Synthetic surfaces as opposed to traditional Dirt).
E: Endurance - given the competition of a race, this index measures the ability for the horse to continue to run past the finish line. It's a measure of what's left in the tank.
All of CASE's indices are constructed to be used and maximized with standard handicapping techniques. This doesn't preclude anyone from being able to successfully
handicap races exclusively with CASE, it just enables those with established practices to enhance their picks utilizing new and exciting data. An example of utilizing existing data, would be using pace figures with E. This would enable a handicapper to associate the taxing effect of the race's fractions (a measurement of competition) to the horses Endurance index.
Analysis
This first editorial we'll look at the CASE results and the CASE pp for one of the biggest races of the year. A race that garnishs interest from truest fans and novices alike, a race steeped in history and tradition whose participants collectively represent a whose who of some of the greatest race horses of all time. I speak of the "greatest 2 minutes in sport": the KENTUCKY DERBY. So strap on your hat and grab a mint julep and we'll examine the various angles of the big race. For instance, how big was "Big Brown's" performance? What CASE pp with seemly good numbers would garnish an automatic dismissal in the Derby and why? We'll look at some "CASE studies" of individual performances.
How big was "BIG BROWN'S" performance?
If you look at his winning time; it doesn't necessarily jump out as one of the fastest Derbys ever. What makes the time interesting is the extra distance Big Brown had to travel during his trip. In essence, one could make the argument that Big Brown could have had an elite Derby time (one of the top 5 Derby times) traveling the shorter distance that a different post or trip might of afford him. Now I realize this is like comparing apples to oranges; however, it is something to acknowledge given the ease at which he won the race. His nearest competitor was 0.82 seconds behind him, and his nearest male competitor was 1.40 seconds behind him (~ 4.1 & 7.0 lengths respectively). Big Brown accomplished this all without breaking a sweat on his neck.
This is all traditional analysis based on time (which is important and interesting); however let's take a look at what a CASE study of Big Brown has to offer.
Big Brown's Stride Quality
The first thing that jumps out at you about is Big Brown's Stride Quality of 91.
That's 9.6% better than the next best Stride quality in the race (Denis of Cork S = 83). How does Big Brown's stride length near the finish line compare to the last three Triple Crown winners?
Big Brown - 21.44 ft
Secretariat - 22.68 ft
Affirmed - 22.92 ft
Seattle Slew - 21.65 ft
At first glance, that doesn't seem very impressive; however Big Brown had no competition breathing down his neck (again the closest finisher was over 4 lengths behind him). Each of the last three Triple Crown winner's Derby, the runner-up finish within a 1.5 length of the respective winner. So if we go back and look at Big Brown's stride length when the field was still pushing the competition level (only 2 lengths behind him); one can start to see why he is so special.
Big Brown - 25.0'
Big Brown's Aerobic Efficiency
Big Brown had an exceptional aerobic efficiency in his Allowance race on 3-5-08 at Gulfstream Park.
The danger of such a high score is a "bounce" performance during his next out. In essence, "bounce" may cause a weaker performance due to overexertion from a taxing race.
Big Brown next race (the Florida Derby) on 3-29-08 had a normal aerobic efficiency index. This translated to a good score of 79 during the Derby. Big Brown has never shown a poor Aerobic Efficiency index in his brief racing career. This is good news for his next out at the Preakness.
Big Brown's Coordination
Big Brown has very consistent and excellent Coordination index in 3 of his 4 races.
The one exception during the Florida Derby doesn't necessarily create an anxiety that there is a problem. Superior to excellent coordination scores occur in the 80's. If a score starts to dip below 80, I look for context vs. the nature of the horse (i.e. sloppy surface or difficult weather vs. a growth spurt for their age). A single lower score can be as simple as blacksmith problem (the way the horse is shoed) or an off day. Consistently, low score catch my attention and start adding meaning. That's not to say a lower score shouldn't give one concern just try and put it into context. As far Big Brown's Florida Derby's Coordination score, since his Stride Quality didn't waver, I tend to give it an excuse.
Big Brown's Endurance
His endurance is very consistent throughout his career which for Big Brown is reflective of two things:
The total control for which he has dominated his racing opponents. Eight Belles finishing just over 4 lengths behind him is as close as any horse has been to him at the finish line.
He has left plenty in his tank after each race.
Big Brown's Derby dominance is evident when comparing Endurance scores. The next best E's are Denis of Cork 57 and Eight Belles 49. Big Brown outscored them by 24.6% & 44.9% respectively. Perhaps the more revealing tale is that of Gayego. This talented colt had excellent CASE numbers, and had finished his Derby Preps with a win in the G2 Arkansas Derby. Gayego lined up just inside Big Brown at the starting gate in post position 19 and attempted to track or follow Big Brown through the race. This is an excellent strategy for racing with the best horse in the race (it worked for Bluegrass Cat against Barbaro two years ago & even though he couldn't catch Barbaro in the end (no one could) it enabled him to run second best). Gayego kept Big Brown in his sights for the all important sprint to the Club House turn. The two of them lay just off pace 5th & 7th respectively; yet Gayego was within striking distance to Big Brown and never waivered more than 1.5 lengths off the eventual winner. This stalking tactic lasted ¾ of the way down the backstretch when Big Brown started to advance. Gayego kept on Big Brown's path, but fell further and further behind. So as Big Brown raced on into the winners circle, Gayego ended up falling to 17th place finishing 32.33 lengths behind Big Brown. Gayego came the closest to duplicating Big Brown's trip yet he couldn't compete with Big Brown's Derby.
Let's do some CASE STUDIES.
CASE STUDY #1 MONBA:
Monba went into a star-studded field (6 of the competitor would run in the Derby) at Keeneland and won the G1 Blue Grass with fantastic CASE numbers. In fact those numbers had the highest average of any horse's last race going into the Derby. He should be considered a contender right? Not in my book. Monba's most telling numbers were for the G2 Fountain of Youth 2-24-08 at Gulfstream Park on the dirt. His CASE numbers back on 2-24-08 were the lowest of all the contenders for races run on dirt. This was only two starts back. The irony is Monba's Derby numbers ended being almost identical to his Fountain of Youth effort.
CASE STUDY #2 COLONEL JOHN:
Colonel John was certainly an intriguing horse coming into Churchill from CA. He had never competed on dirt prior to Kentucky Derby, and the big question was how would he handle the change? I believe the horse certainly deserved consideration. He had consistent numbers. You know he'd be fit and ready. I find it interesting that he had a period late in his 2 year old campaign were his Coordination indices drop. Perhaps it was a growth period? Hard to say, it certainly didn't detour him from winning. I like the way Colonel John performed after his big effort in the G3 Sham on 3-1-08. He won the G1 Santa Anita Derby on 4-5-08 with a solid Aerobic Efficiency and his best Stride Quality ever (95) while achieving an excellent Coordination score of 81. Colonel John had a rough start in his Kentucky Derby. He was squeezed between Visionaire and Z Humor less than 100 yards from the start. He checked regrouped and made a strong move starting on the backstretch that positioned him into 6th place at the finish line. He proved that he could run on dirt beating 14 of the top 3 year olds, it's just the other 5 that got the better of him on the first Saturday in May.
CASE STUDY #3 DENIS OF CORK:
Denis of Cork was a horse that had impressed many by winning his first three races; yet after a poor showing in the G2 Illinois Derby on 4-5-08 at Hawthorne, he was on the verge of not being eligible for Kentucky Derby. In his first three wins, Denis of Cork was ridden by two of last years more successful jockeys. His first two wins, he was ridden by Calvin Borel (Street Senses jockey and hence winner of the Kentucky Derby). His third win was ridden by Robby Abarado (jock for horse of the year: Curlin). All three rides were victorious, on dirt, and at different tracks (one at Churchill with Calvin Borel riding). Denis of Cork seem to handle each situation with consistency: excellent Cooridination indices (80 & 81's), a very good Stride Quality (87) at Churchill and superb Aerobic Efficiency scores (83, 95, settling next with a solid 73 respectively). With the next change in venue and rider, Denis of Cork didn't respond as well. What's interesting to me is how the deterioration occurred. Even though his Stride Quality peaked with a 91, it did so with a poor Coordination score of 78. His endurance was low and he was beaten soundly at Hawthorne. For me, the data points to were he was uncomfortable: it was not his day. Dismiss that effort, return to Churchill with last year's winning Derby Jockey (Calvin Borel), May 3rd becomes a new day. Calvin Borel gives Denis of Cork a comparable ride to last year's Street Sense. He settled early at the rail and assumed last position. By hugging the rail Denis of Cork picked off fading 3 year olds with the day's 2nd best Stride Quality (83) & Endurance scores (57) combined with the day's best Coordination index (81).
Comments And Questions
We would appreciate any comments or questions you have on this article.
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