Belmont Stakes Analysis
With nine contenders looking to give Big Brown a race, who looks good and who needs some help. In this Belmont pre-card discussion, we'll talk in general about the contenders based on the CASE indices.
We believe CASE works best when combined with other traditional forms of handicapping. Handicap the race as you normally would, then refer to CASE for additional perspective.
BIG BROWN. He starts in post position #1, and that is more than likely where he'll finish. If we revisit the Derby editorial and the Preakness editorial we can see why his numbers are poised for another big race. There are a lot of things that can go wrong or conditions that can change the complexion of the race; but based on the competition and his numbers, Big Brown is the horse to beat. He is in a league of his own.
GUADALCANAL is a surprise maiden entry. When you look at these CASE numbers, temper your excitement with a couple of facts: it was on turf, he was carrying nine fewer pounds, and in $39K Maiden Special Weight (MSW) company. He has a great post position next to Big Brown, and there are those hoping to utilize that to get into the money. However, his last two outs on dirt were horrific; and for that reason he may not be a contender this time around. Check the CASE numbers. Caution.
MACHO AGAIN is a horse we talked about in the Preakness editorial. If you revisit the article; you can read about his kick and why his numbers are very good. Macho Again is a horse to like; however, he might be in the middle tier with the possibility of moving up into the money. He may be worth some attention and a little play in the exotics.
DENNIS OF CORK last raced in the Derby under the careful guidance of a familiar hand (Calvin Borel). He'll have the help of Robby Abarado who guided him to his most impressive win in the Southwest (G3). If you revisit our editorial on the Derby; you'll see what there is to like about this horse. Perhaps just in or just out of the money. A possible second in the right scenario (i.e. sloppy conditions). Probably makes the list on a few exotics.
CASINO DRIVE is out of MORE THAN READY whose previous two foals (Jazil & Rags to Riches) won the last 2 Belmont. He's a neat horse; however, he's only had two starts (though they were both wins). His last win (the Peter Pan - G2 at Belmont) was an impressive victory to watch. After that race, he looked like a clear cut 2nd; however, take a look at his CASE data. Will his C & A rebound? Hard to say, but he deserves some attention. Given the CASE numbers, he may make it in the money or close.
DA' TARA has some quality in his CASE numbers at the expense of other CASE indices. Might not be a strong contender.
With TALE OF EKATI take a look at his CASE numbers: he likes NY and has excelled at the track. Look for him to contend, and let's see if he holds on to be in the money. Could be worth some play in the exotics.
Like Da' Tara, ANAK NAKAL has some quality CASE numbers at the expense of others. He has Julian Leparoux guiding him and they've had some success in the distant past; however look for him to be with Da' Tara at the end. Maybe this is not his time.
READY'S ECHO has some neat CASE numbers. He's a late charger, and you know he'll be coming at the end. So how many can he catch? To be seen. He deserves some action, and perhaps a couple of plays placing behind the winner.
ICABAD CRANE performed well in the Preakness, but if you look at the last editorial you'll notice a looming question mark based on his Aerobic Efficiency. Not sure he'll be fully recovered, and for that he might not be a contender this time out.
Purchase the Belmont Stakes card and look at the data while you read the article above. Combine this perspective with your typical handicapping approach and we think the day will go your way. If you buy a subscription the Belmont Stakes card is FREE (prices start at $39.95), or you can purchase the card for this race for only $4.95.
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