2/20/09

This is part four in a four-part series discussing and helping readers understand value in different types of races. For the purpose of the article, the focus is on California racetracks.

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Claiming races are still one of the most baffling concepts to racing newcomers. They don’t realize that all racehorses are for sale. Since the fields are supposed to be full of horses of equal ability, claiming races are the hardest type to handicap. Before understanding how to handicap a claiming race, horseplayers should have a general grasp of why claiming races exist, what they are, and what an owner or trainer looks for when claiming a horse.

 

All racehorses have a value based on their pedigree, ability, and current “form.” In truly classy horses, these values can be a little ambiguous. A well-bred two-year-old that breaks its maiden impressively and has nothing but potential can typically be worth more than a horse with ability that has run decently in allowance and stakes races.

 

Claiming horses account for most racehorses in the United States today. One way to evenly match a field of horses of the same value is to set a claiming price on the race. When a claiming price is set, it means that another owner can purchase any horse in the field for that claiming price. This restriction discourages owners from entering overqualified horses in races they would likely win, but that could also result in forcing the sale of the horse at a low price. Without this method of setting a value, all horses (untried future stakes horses and horses not worth more than a few thousand dollars combined) would be competing in open maiden or allowance races. The lower tier horses would never have a chance!

 

It is also important to understand that as a horse wins, its value goes up and it usually rises from one claiming level to another. At the major Southern California tracks, $8,000 is the lowest claiming “tag,” or price, on a race. An example of rising in claiming level would be if horse wins an $8000 race and exits in good order then later resurfaces in a few weeks at the $12,000 level. As the horse continues to win, it will rise or stay at its level; when the horse starts to “go backwards” and is not able to compete at the same level, its tag will drop. In this case, the owner and trainer are trying to find the “bottom” of the horse, looking for the level at which the horse can win again, or where another owner will claim it and try his hand.

 

Many horse owners prefer to purchase a ready-made racehorse (a “claimer”) rather than an untried yearling or two-year-old out of an auction. Although the untried horse comes with infinite possibilities, its talent, or lack thereof, is not yet discovered; with a claiming horse, the owners have an idea of what they are getting. A claiming horse has workouts and past race results for the buyer to examine. Using a network of racetrack acquaintances, prospective owners can also find out if the horse has any known problems.

 

The managing partner of the East Coast-based Renpher Stable, Bob Oliva, offered insight into what an owner looks for before claiming a horse. “You look for profitability in the near future, such as, if I were to claim this horse, where could I run it? At what level can I compete with it? Are there races offered at the track that fit this horse?” He then explained the research process behind claiming a horse. “I pull the past performances of upcoming claiming races two to three days in advance, and if I find a horse I like on paper, I will watch all of its race replays. How does the horse travel over the ground? Is the horse traveling better now or was it doing better a few starts ago? The final decision is made at the paddock; if the horse’s knees and ankles aren’t hidden with bandages, and he is walking soundly, then you should be able to make money with him down the road.”

 

 

Claiming races offer perhaps the greatest opportunity for handicappers to use CASE Data successfully, especially in the lesser focused-upon areas of Coordination and Stride Quality. In races where the horse’s physical well being is the key to victory, watching patterns in these numbers can really help bettors find value.   Just as owners would examine race replays to decide how the horse was moving and hitting the ground, CASE data enables handicappers to examine horses’ physical indicators. If the numbers start declining, the horse is possibly not up to par. Knowing the trends helps handicappers eliminate horses with poor prospects and move on to other choices.

 

 

Claiming races are undeniably difficult to handicap. In addition to the issue of the field supposedly being of the same class, the handicapper is faced with additional problems, such as when owners and trainers bluff each other. Sometimes a horse on a recent winning streak is kept at the same level because the trainer knows that the horse is tailing off or may have a physical ailment. The owner may be hoping that at the price, another buyer will bite and buy the horse. Other times, the horse is physically fine, but the connections want to score an easy victory. The trainers will have the horse’s legs wrapped with bandages -- sometimes to hide possible physical problems, and sometimes to scare off other buyers because the trainer doesn’t want to lose the horse. Unless they are present at the track and have a keen eye for a horse’s health and appearance, all of this information is hidden from the handicappers.

 

Southern California-based trainer Mike Mitchell is the king of claiming horses and improving them. In the past few years, Mitchell has been red-hot while claiming horses out of middle-to-high priced claiming races and turning them into major stakes winners. He referred to the sport of claiming hoses as “one big poker game; you have to know your competition and figure out if they have a full house or an empty hand.”

“It is more important now than ever that a serious handicapper goes to the paddock and views the horses in a claiming race,” Mitchell said.

 

Lisa Maguran, assistant trainer at the prestigious Adena Springs training center, agreed that physical appearance was an essential part of handicapping claimers. “A physically sound, happy horse will always try for you,” she noted. “Having basic knowledge of a horse’s anatomy is extremely helpful to a horseplayer. If they knew what a bowed tendon -- or other common injuries that can surface in claimers -- looked like, they would know which horses have issues. If a horse is miserable in the paddock while being saddled for a race, and if its coat is dull with longer hairs and the horse isn’t on the muscle, you know that horse isn’t going to run its best race.”

 

Mitchell offered another view: “If a horse is acting up and sweating out in the paddock, or looks dull and listless, I would stay far away from it, both as a trainer claiming the horse and as a handicapper. Only about one in 1000 of those kinds of horses wins.” However, Mitchell cautioned that the paddock isn’t the only place to keep an eye on the horse’s appearance. “If a horse acts up in the paddock, but in the post parade and heading out to the gate it looks on the muscle and ready to race, that wouldn’t stop me from liking the horse. Some horses settle down and start acting professional on the track, and that’s okay.”

 

 

Possibly the most basic tidbit for any horseplayer tackling a claiming race is to take a look at the horses that have been claimed out of their last starts. “A new trainer is going to go over the horse like a used car, whereas the previous trainer who has had the horse for a while might miss something they consider to be usual,” Mitchell explained. “When a horse switches trainers, they are put onto a new feed program, with a new groom, and a new exercise rider, and sometimes that is all it takes to revitalize a horse.”

 

There are certain unspoken issues when dealing with claimers, as well. Some horses seem to improve dramatically after entering a new trainer’s barn. Part of this is due to trainers and their medication programs. Many handicappers become familiar with trainers who have a high success rate first start after the claim and those on hot streaks.

 

 

There is quite a bit of value to be had in claiming races; this is where handicappers will find high-value winners. Because the horses run more often and improve and decline with greater frequency, making note of the patterns and staying on top of the circuit should prove profitable in the long run.

 

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Emily Shields s a regular contributor to Case the Race.  She has written for California Thoroughbred, Churchill Downs media, and international racing magazines.