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Thursday Night Special: Cleveland at Pittsburgh
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Updated: Dec-08-2011 Created: Dec-08-2011
Steelers -14 hosting Browns (1 unit)
Laying two touchdowns in the NFL is a dangerous thing to do no matter how enticing the favorite might look. But special Thursday night circumstances and matchup analysis points to an easy Pittsburgh victory so I'll be laying the big freight.
The Browns are going into Pittsburgh on a short week having been physically whipped by Baltimore this past Sunday losing 24-10 at home surrendering a staggering 290 yards on the ground. The week before that the Browns played their hearts out nearly upsetting another division rival, Cincinnati. Overworked, overburdened and largely devoid of talent, the Browns' defense is breaking down allowing an average of 5.3 yards per rush and seven touchdowns on the ground in their last six games. Losing veteran linebacker Scott Fujita certainly didn't help Cleveland's worn down defense. And defense is the Browns' strength.
The Browns have no playmakers on offense. They are averaging 14.6 points per game and rank 30th in total yards and rushing. In their last seven games, the Browns are averaging only 12 points a game. Peyton Hillis isn't nearly the runner he was last year. Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya are below average backups. Colt McCoy is nothing but a dink-and-dunker with below average wider receivers. McCoy has passed for more than 220 yards just twice this season in this the year of the quarterback.
Pittsburgh ranks first in total defense and No. 2 against the pass. Star linebacker James Harrison is coming on after beginning the year slow recovering from off-season surgery. The Steelers' run defense has shown marked improvement since nose guard Casey Hampton returned from a shoulder injury. Pittsburgh has given up just one rushing score and held opposing runners to an average of 3.1 yards per carry during its last five games. I can't see the Browns putting many points at all in this matchup and they don't have a Cam Newton type of quarterback to hang around and get a backdoor cover.
The Steelers are well balanced on offense with Ben Roethlisberger and a relatively fresh Rashard Mendenhall. The Browns rank No. 1 in pass defense. That statistic is highly misleading, though, considering the Browns have been thrown on the second fewest times. The Browns don't rush the quarterback well and aside from cornerback Joe Haden, they don't have a strong secondary.
The Steelers are off their most dominant performance of the season beating the Bengals, 35-7, last week. That was Pittsburgh's seventh win in its last eight games. The Browns are 2-7 in their last nine games. Their victories have been against Seattle when backup Charlie Whitehurst was the quarterback and Marshawn Lynch was out and against Jacksonville, which is 3-9 and ranks last in total offense and second-to-last in points scored.
I don't see a letdown factor either from Pittsburgh in this nationally televised home matchup. The Steelers have beaten the Browns in 14 of the last 15 meetings, but the lone defeat during this span occurred just two years ago and that loss help keep them out of the playoffs. The Steelers are desperately trying to stay ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North Division knowing the Ravens own two victories against them this season. The two teams are tied for the division lead. Cleveland is 1-4 on the road with its only victory coming against the winless Colts. The Browns have failed to cover eight of the last nine times they've been underdogs.
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