Back in November of 2007, almost exactly a year ago, while we were busy with college football and turkey, a group called the American Graded Stakes Committee was meeting in Lexington, Kentucky, deciding exactly which horse races in 2008 would bear the designation of “Graded Stakes” races.
Now, the question is, “Why should we care?” The answer is simple: Money. An 8/5 favorite can still pay very well in a stakes race. This happens for two reasons: First, wagering pools for Graded Stakes races usually quickly fill with contributions from players with deep pockets; and, second, players who handicap a stakes race as “just another horse race” are likely to lose, thus boosting the payouts.
In fact, some stakes races can have more money in their wagering pools than a full day of “regular” races at many tracks. In addition, owners pay a hefty fee or stake to enter their horse in the race, thus the term “stakes race.” Also, tracks often add money to the stake, thus adding even more incentive for top horses to run at their very best. The prize money is often paid out to the first, second, third, and, sometimes, fourth place winners. That is why you see thoroughbreds battling for Win, Place, Show and fourth place in stakes races. It is not unusual to see a Grade 3 race (the lowest of the three levels) offer purses of $200,000.00 and more.
Yet another answer is that Graded Stakes are generally tightly controlled, with Grade 1 being the most challenging and Grades 2 and 3 running second and third. Because of the quality of the horses and the value of the race, stakes races sometimes have additional rules added to keep the playing field more level and to allow the entrants eligibility to even higher levels of thoroughbred racing. My advice is to enjoy them, as they are some of the best races that you will probably ever see.
To clarify, let’s use an example: Oaklawn is a beautiful track in Arkansas. My family has had a box there for longer than I’ve been alive. It is the home of the Rebel Stakes, a Grade III event, which is the big race of the entire meet at this otherwise quite normal track. At the 2007 meeting, the Rebel Stakes was “bumped up” from a Grade III level to a Grade II level. This drew a more accomplished group of horses. It also helped to shape the future of the Kentucky Derby as a prep race, and it helped both the track and the handicappers see some of the new Triple Crown talent.
There are about 35 races that we call “preps” for the Kentucky Derby. The Rebel Stakes is just one of them. They begin on January 1st with The Tropical Park Derby and lead through the Triple Crown Races. Along the way, in 2008, these prep races introduced us to Big Brown, Smooth Air, Winsome Charm, Afleet Ruler, Yankee Bravo, Roman Emporer, Pyro, Big Truck, Denis of York, Cool Coal Man, Colonel John, Larry’s Revenge, Gayego, Monba, Eight Belles, and more.
In fact, there are 418 Graded Stakes races scheduled for this year. The primary restrictions are for age and gender. The purse has to be at least $75,000; the race must have run for at least two years under the same conditions prior to earning Graded Stakes status, and strict drug rules apply. By the way, next year, 2009 Graded Stakes will include very strong anti-drug restrictions, which could affect the outcome of these future “super-horses,” who will now be denied some medications that are allowed in ordinary races.
These are the best thoroughbreds in the United States. These are the horses with speed figures over 100, not less able horses, who are in the 50’s or 60’s.
So, how do we handicap them? Don’t rely on the pacelines, as most of these horses have won almost every race in their career. My advice is to watch their races. For example, I liked Monba and Big Brown because they did not slow down as they approached the finish line. They loved to run. Even at ten lengths ahead, they didn’t slow down. In fact, they put in an extra kick just to get further ahead.
I combine that factor with a close jockey/trainer/owner connection, plus the bloodline of the horse. Then, I wait for the post positions to be selected. These horses are so good that post position and track conditions can make a world of difference. One heavy rain shower can turn a stakes race into a guessing game, as some of these horses have never been exposed to a muddy track. Anything can happen and it can lead to some costly upsets.
Don’t spend time adding up money won, as these horses are all big purse grabbers, so some might be $300,000 ahead of another in the race for the most money earned. Also, try to find videos of earlier races, and watch them with an emphasis on early speed and keeping out of trouble. Along with pacelines, look at workouts within four days of the race. Some players use workouts as their primary selection tool in graded stakes.
Look at the “career path” of each horse. If a trainer has that Midas touch, it is because he’s been there before, and what wins for him will probably win again.
Forget the regular rundown and think gold. And, finally, as you review the form for information, remember that the jockeys, trainers and owners are reading the exact same form as you are reading, so don’t think that you are being told something new You are being told exactly what they want you to be told.
I enjoy races of all shapes and sizes, but it is hard to not put Graded Stakes at the top of the list. They are big, exciting and, quite literally, in a class of their own. Believe me, they are worth watching, just to see such fast and powerful contenders work their way up into the ranks of the “best of the best.”
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James Robins is an independent professional handicapper, a writer, and a seasoned horse racing professional. For over 20 years, he has been handicapping and picking winners. Since 2006, he has reviewed and tested systems for the prestigious Phillips Racing Newsletter. He is also the Feature Editor of ThoroStats.com. In addition, he has developed handicapping solutions for other companies worldwide and top professional handicappers.
