This is part two in a four-part series discussing and helping the reader to understand value in different types of races. For the purpose of the article, the focus is on California racetracks.

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The 2005 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) will always be remembered as one of the great upsets of all time: 50 – 1 longshot Giacomo stormed home from the back of the pack to score a dramatic victory on the wire. Although there were many factors playing into that win - the rapid pace falling apart, the sub-par quality of the field aside from Afleet Alex, etc. – some astute handicappers hit home with the $102 payout, the second-largest in Derby history. Although hindsight is 20/20, Giacomo definitely fit as a contender, and as a handicapper, it is your job to catch those longshots.

 

Pace factors aside, there were several keys that comprised Giacomo’s victory. The classy colt only had a maiden win to his credit before the Derby, but that was by a whopping ten lengths. The son of Holy Bull, bred to mature with age and run better as the distances lengthened, had run well in his Triple Crown prep races and had already proven to be a consistent grade-1 type runner. Even more importantly, he thrived at Churchill Downs with strong gallops.

 

As a three-year-old, Giacomo developed rapidly, and “got good” when it was most important. Another example of this type of horse is Cat Thief, who, as a three-year-old in 1999, finished on the board in eight graded stakes races but did not have a signature win to his credit when going to the post for the Breeders’ Cup Classic that fall. Blossoming at the right time, Cat Thief won the race at 19 – 1. Both Giacomo and Cat Thief had the pedigree, the solid workouts, and the consistency to step up and score a big race, and yet it still came as a shock to the handicappers when they did.

 

 

As previously examined in Part 1 of this series, pedigree plays a huge role in how horses develop. For example, Mr. Prospector and In Reality bloodlines develop faster than Roberto and Ribot lines. Steve Haskin, Senior Correspondent for The Blood-Horse magazine and the man who religiously chronicles the Triple Crown Trail each year, explained that of examining three-year-olds, “you need to start looking for stamina, because it's awful late for a horse who has little stamina to catch up to the others who have already proven themselves stretching out. If a horse is bred to run long, but runs well short, that is encouraging.” Hunting for stamina in the pedigree can help you eliminate over-bet horses that won’t appreciate a step up in distance as the race lengths increase.

 

 

Workouts are arguably the fastest and easiest way to predict the performance of a young horse, but can be deceiving, warns Southern California trainer Gary Mandella, son of the brilliant Richard Mandella. “Trainers tend to get more morning glories [a horse that works well in the morning but doesn’t run to its workouts], rather than horses who work slowly and suddenly run well when in the starting gate. You are more disappointed than surprised. A fast workout doesn’t mean a lot, the way the horse worked means more. A good horse’s back stretches out, almost like a cat’s, when it runs, and the rider sits quietly and doesn’t slow or encourage the horse.”

 

While this is sage advice, not all casual handicappers can spend the mornings watching workouts, so training patterns presented in the past performances must be observed. “Especially notice how the horse worked immediately following its first race,” Mandella explained. “For a lot of horses, after the first race, the ‘light goes on.’ They become more aggressive in the barn and on the track in the morning. They loved being turned loose for the first time, and they pull harder in the morning, turning in faster workout times.” However, that theory also goes the other way. “Some horses, especially fillies, hate the feeling of exhaustion, and they will refuse to ever run that hard again. You can see this in workout patterns, too, with slower works after that first race.”

 

 

A horse doesn’t need to win to run well. Some horses may finish in mid-pack in their debut races, and appear to have not shown much in the effort, but if a handicapper examines the replay of the race and notices a horse who is kept to task by its jockey, or a horse who gets into the race and finishes evenly without falling too far behind, that horse may be worth a bet at long odds in its next start. Horses who regularly finish well in their races usually do step up and find the winner’s circle at some point, either due to sudden blossoming, small tinkering in routine by the trainer, or sheer circumstance. If you ever get the feeling that a horse who makes money in each start but seldom wins is one day going to break through, it probably will! These kind of horses often go dismissed in the betting because they “take” more money than they “make.”

 

 

Adding or removing equipment is the fourth factor that can make a racehorse exhibit more talent than it originally appeared to have. Equipment changes, such as the addition of certain race-day medications or blinkers, are announced in the program each race day There are numerous equipment “angles” when handicapping, such as “second time Lasix,” when the drug that fights bleeding in the lungs seems to make a horse suddenly jump ahead several lengths.

 

“Gelding is the most effective equipment change there is,” Mandella said. “It gets a horse to run to its true ability. Changes in bits and blinkers can also improve a horse by four or five lengths.” There are some instances when being present at the track can really help a handicapper, rather than betting via simulcast or at home, and equipment changes emphasize that. “The program tells you that a horse has blinkers on,” Mandella illustrated, “but when the horse comes into the paddock, he really has not just blinkers, but outside extensions, which is a large cup on the right eye so that the horse doesn’t lug out on the turns. That’s a great tip off, and you can check the past performances: did the horse get beat last time while lugging? If they did, then this addition could be enough to get the horse to step up and win.”

 

 

Just as a two-year-old can improve while stretching a route of ground the first time, a three-year-old can burst onto the scene and compete well with horses that have already been showing talent throughout the year. The Travers Stakes (gr. I) in August at Saratoga is known as the “Mid-Summer Derby” and the best sophomores from the Triple Crown season converge on the race. In 2007, Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense was heavily favored, but was followed over the line by 9 – 1 Grasshopper and 49 – 1 Helsinki, horses who were steadily improving all summer and caused decent payouts despite the heavy favorite. The 2008 Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth Park, also in August, featured Derby and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) hero Big Brown, who had to fight desperately to hold off 20 – 1 Coal Play at the wire.

 

It is difficult to predict when these horses will step up and hit the board, because workouts and solid race efforts are hardly the whole story. CASE data can really help here, as horses whose numbers fit with the rest of the field and are steadily improving despite not winning are worth a play in any scenario, but especially if they are at long odds. Paying attention to the overall form of a horse is key to a devoted handicapper, as keeping track of the nuances of a horse’s talent pays off in the long run.

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Emily Shields is a regular contributor to Case The Race.