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Adrenaline flow! -- Derby 2010
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Updated: Apr-06-2011
Created: May-01-2010
Adrenaline flow is starting to pick up as we near the most exciting two minutes in sport. I am holed up in my hotel room at the Las Vegas Hilton, finalizing my Kentucky Derby wagering strategies. I've always felt that the Derby and March Madness have a lot in common. It's not always about the best, most talented runner winning, just like March Madness has proven it's not always the most talented team winning. The road to the final four is akin to the road to the top of the stretch. I can't overstate how much luck is involved in this race. With that said, it is still a lot of fun to piece together a hypothesis based on real data. So here is what I am going to do.
WIN WAGERS: Make Music For Me and Mission Impazible: Make Music For Me is my ultimate stab. He was training big heading into the Blue Grass. I feel strongly that he simply hated that track. Toby's commentary about his gallop routine remaining strong leads me to believe he will offer gigantic value. Mission Impazible just feels like the type of horse that is peaking at the right time. A true grinder that will keep finding a way to go forward when others are going backwards in the final quarter mile.
EXOTICS: I will be boxing the #1-Lookin At Lucky, #2-Ice Box, #9-Make Music For Me, and #14-Mission Impazible.
In my mind Lookin at Lucky is the best horse. But as I previously stated, this race has a way of eliminating the most talent in the first furlong. His rail draw is no bargain.
Ice Box is an uncomfortable, awkward traveler, that I suddenly became a fan of after one simple half mile workout. Sometimes these strange movers will be ignored because they are not visually appealing in their movement. With Ice Box, I think he simply has an unorthodox style that works for him.
I wish everybody luck. Because it is needed.
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