By Noel Michaels
And they're off! The winter racing season in New York has officially begun with the opening of the Aqueduct inner track on Wednesday, December 2. Even though winter racing is the most low-profile time of the year on the New York racing calendar, there is still much to for horseplayers during the long cold winter in the Big Apple.
Stakes will not be as big a part of the New York racing scene for the next few months as they are at other times of the year, but that doesn’t mean there is not a lot going on for bettors and handicappers who consider Aqueduct’s inner track meet to be the bread and butter for avid horseplayers and hardcore racing fans in the Northeast.
When we talk about winter racing in New York, we are speaking of the scaled-down yet still very bettable version of the NYRA five-day-a-week race schedule but without all the bells and whistles of graded stakes racing and turf racing. The race cards will now become dirt-only affairs, of course, as turf racing migrates south and west for the winter, taking with it all those great big 10-, 11-, and 12-horse fields that we all love betting on. What we’re left with is the Aqueduct inner track’s six furlong dirt sprints and mostly one mile, one mile and 70 yards, and one mile and a sixteenth dirt routes that are always interesting betting propositions at this time of year.
And so, even if you don’t like it, you’d at least better get used to the inner track at this time of year, because if you like to bet New York racing, the inner track is all we’ve got and it’ll be here all the way until the end of March when the warmth starts to return and the days again start to get longer on the East coast.
The first thing to understand and perhaps try to capitalize on at the inner track meet is that Aqueduct’s inner track is much more speed friendly than the most recent races in the horse’s past performances on Aqueduct’s main track. If you are going to enjoy any kind of success on the inner track, you must learn to acknowledge the increased success of speed – and particularly inside speed as opposed to the main track. Do yourself a favor and upgrade early speed horses while slightly downgrading the closers, especially if there doesn’t figure to be a contentious pace. Also, be aware that the rail and the inside three posts have traditionally won for a high percentage on the inner track. Have that in mind when considering those runners from outside gates.
One way to make money on Aqueduct’s inner track, especially early in the meet, is to capitalize on the many differences between main track racing and inner track racing at Aqueduct. Many of the races that had been run around one turn at Belmont and on Aqueduct’s main track will now be run around two turns, so scan down horses’ pp’s and find the ones that should benefit from the extra turn.
Another aspect of looking for two-turn horses is the importance of finding horses for the course specifically for Aqueduct’s inner track. Certain horses love Aqueduct’s inner-track surface while others can’t stand it, and many veteran horses have compiled great long-term records over the inner oval which makes them very attractive bets when you are trying to dope out top contenders. Sometimes horses will ship out of town to Philadelphia Park, Finger Lakes, New Jersey and the Mid-Atlantic region for the rest of the year, but their connections will ship them back to Aqueduct for the inner-track meet if they’ve proven an affinity for the inner track surface in the past. These horses can often be terrific bets, especially when they are trained by top conditioners such as Anthony Dutrow and other top mid-Atlantic trainers.
With the transition from main track racing at Aqueduct to inner-track racing, a lot of variety is lost with the wintertime demise of the middle sprint distances of 6 1/2 furlongs and 7 furlongs. The inner track configuration prohibits these distances from being run this time of year. However, aside from the monotony that handicappers must face by looking only at sprint races all being run at the same distance of 6 furlongs over-and-over, this not-so-subtle difference is nevertheless a major factor for handicappers to key on and turn from a negative to a positive to use to their best advantage.
Many of the sprint horses whose connections stick around New York for the winter have horses that prefer 6 1/2 and/or 7 furlongs. However, those horses must be shoehorned into 6 furlong races whether they like it or not (or else stretched out around two turns, which is even less preferable). The fact that a lot of horses will spend the winter racing at a distance that is not their favorite is an important handicapping factor that should not be overlooked. Scan down the horses’ pp’s and try to find the ones that would rather be entered at better 6 1/2 of 7 furlong races, but have had to be either shortened up to 6 furlongs or stretched out to two-turn races instead, and bet against those horses whenever possible.
Also remember that this six-furlong factor is yet another thing that results in speed horses performing very well on the Aqueduct inner track. Many late-running sprinters that could rally to victory at 6 1/2 or 7 furlongs are now falling short because they are forced to sprint 6 furlongs, and the distance just isn’t long enough to aid their late-running chances.
Just when things begin moving along fast and furious at the Aqueduct meet, the track will take a 12-day holiday break that will last through Christmas. When Aqueduct racing resumes on Dec. 26, all of the other big name jockeys will be departed for Gulfstream, and the above-mentioned riders will take over when Aqueduct racing returns on Saturday and Sunday, December 26-27.
Aqueduct’s remaining 2009 schedule is, as follows:
Upcoming Aqueduct Racing Schedule
Dec. 2-13 – Open daily, Wednesday through Sunday, first post 12:30 Eastern
Dec. 14-25 – Closed for holiday break, no racing
Dec. 26-27 – Aqueduct re-opens
Dec. 30 – Aqueduct resumes regular Weds.-Sun. schedule
Trainers
There will be a Florida exodus of trainers just like there is for jockeys following the holidays, as many of the top training names like Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Christophe Clement, Shug McGaughey, Kiaran McLaughlin (currently to begin serving a one-month drug suspension) and others will all be taking the majority of their better stock with them down south for the winter. The top training names taking their places atop the Aqueduct winter standings will include familiar names such as Gary Contessa, Bruce Levine, and Bruce Brown and Chad Brown (no relation).
The training standings in the 2009-10 Aqueduct inner track meet are likely to resemble last year’s standings. Please note that trainer Richard Dutrow’s horses are currently running under the name of assistant Juan Rodriguez during his current suspension, and Kiaran McLaughlin’s horses are running under the name of assistant Arthur Magnuson.
Aqueduct Inner Track Trainer Standings 2008-2009 Winter Meet
Trainer Wins Win%
Gary Contessa 56 13%
Bruce Levine 33 16%
Steve Asmussen 29 37%
Kiaran McLaughlin 25 26%
Bruce Brown 22 21%
Dominic Galluscio 22 21%
Richard Dutrow 18 26%
Todd Pletcher 16 27%
Anthony Dutrow 16 18%
David Jacobson 16 15%
Linda Rice 14 18%
Scott Lake 13 15%
Trainers to watch in December include a few guys who got off to fast starts at the inner track meet in December of 2008 like Steve Asmussen, Tony Dutrow, and some not-so-expected names like David Duggan, Del Carroll, and David Donk. Last year, David Duggan had two wins and a second with his first three runners, Del Carroll won with 2 of 5 opening week entrants while hitting the board with four out of the five (80%), and David Donk, who went 2-for-6 at the young Aqueduct inner track meet in 2008.
Running Styles / Post Positions
Early speed is king on the Aqueduct inner track, and speed and the rail is a deadly combination. Upgrade early speed horses and make good use of the lone speed angle, while at the same time downgrading deep closers in all but the most contentious pace scenarios. The three- and four-wide trips that win other times of the year in New York don’t win nearly as often once NYRA racing shifts to the Aqueduct inner track.
Once again, speed and the inside, those are big keys to success on the Big A inner track. The rail and the inside three posts are the best places to be on the inner track, by far. This especially holds true in two-turn route races, where the short run to the first turn makes ground-saving trips invaluable and puts the outermost posts in big fields at a sizable disadvantage. Outside posts can, indeed win, but the horses from those gates generally need good “inside-out” trips and rides, meaning that they should save ground early before swinging out leaving the turn and rallying into the stretch from not too far behind.
2008-09 Aqueduct Inner Track Winning Posts
Sprints (almost all at 6 furlongs)
Post Wins Win%
1 52 13%
2 46 12%
3 51 13%
4 44 11%
5 43 11%
6 50 13%
7 39 13%
8 30 11%
9 21 13%
10 8 8%
11 5 11%
12 1 5%
One Mile
1 15 14%
2 10 9%
3 17 15%
4 20 18%
5 11 10%
6 11 10%
7 8 9%
8 10 15%
9 6 16%
10 3 23
One Mile and 70 Yards
1 14 11%
2 23 18%
3 18 14%
4 12 9%
5 10 8%
6 20 16%
7 16 16%
8 11 14%
9 5 11%
10 2 7%
One Mile and a Sixteenth
1 5 16%
2 4 13%
3 5 16%
4 6 19%
5 2 7%
6 2 8%
7 1 5%
8 3 21%
9 1 11%
10 1 17%
11 1 50%
As the stats from last year show, the track played more fairly in terms of post positions in 2008-09 than ever before. Horses could win from any post and at any distance – a big departure from previous seasons when the win percentages, especially in routes, were extremely heavily skewed toward the three or four inside posts. We’ll have to watch carefully and examine if the old inside bias returns this season, or if the track can play fairly overall as it did in 2008-09.
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This article was originally prepared for Nassau Off-Track Betting
