In a recent exchange, we probed John Lindley, an Emerald Downs handicapper, about his professional life and his progression from casual fan to horse racing professional.
Case the Race: You do a lot of things. You are the handicapper for Parker’s Picks at Emerald Downs, a horse owner, an author, and a handicapping educator. Would you be willing to tell us what percentage of your income comes from successful betting?
JL: Regarding betting, I do not really consider myself a professional handicapper (from a betting perspective). Also, I don't for sure win money betting every year. I mostly win about three out of every four years and use that money to pay for my horses.
When Emerald Downs is open, most of my time is concentrated on handicapping and publishing the sheet. That is a lot of work for me to achieve good results for my customers. I don't concentrate as much on my own betting during the racing season. Again, my main emphasis is to produce a high quality sheet with winning recommendations.
But to answer your question, on average about 25% of my income from the track will come from betting in any given year. Also, in order to make a living betting, you have to bet fairly large amounts of money. If you can obtain a 10% return on your money -- which would be high as my normal winning years range from a 5% to 8% return -- [you have bet $100,000 for each $10,000 of income]. At Emerald you might even affect the pools with those amounts, thus betting against yourself. The best year I ever had was a 12% return on all bets, which is really high considering you are fighting a blended takeout of 20% just to start. Clearly, it’s not easy to win betting, but that is what makes it challenging and fun.
The "real" and very few professionals who are making money right now are pretty much doing so because of off-shore rebate shops which will kick back as much as 7%. Most others are like me. They have some sort of business related to handicapping and supplement their income with betting.
Case the Race: What was your progression from casual fan to handicapping for Parker’s Picks?
JL: I first went to the track in 1980 as part of a group (I was a paperboy for the Seattle Times, they had their annual awards banquet at Longacres the morning of a racing day). I won an award that day and the winner of that award was asked to be in the winner's circle for the second race. Since I had to stay, I decided to bet, and knowing absolutely nothing, I picked out a Daily Double. My horse won the first race of the day and I was alive in the Daily Double. Prior to the second race, we were taken down to the winner's circle and introduced to the fans as Seattle Times carriers. Then, we watched the second race from the winner's circle (which was right on the finish line and just a few feet from the track). As the horses came down to the finish, my horse was right there, but at the wire, another horse just edged out my horse and beat me by a nose. Even though I lost, I thought this was a pretty cool sport and wanted to come back.
I didn’t go back to the track till the next year and then I started going to the track on a regular basis in 1982. After the season ended in 1982, I thought there would be a market for a computer program that would help pick winners. I wrote a computer program (with a partner) and sold the program beginning in 1983. I also noticed there was opportunity to provide more information about racing to the general public, as publications at that time (mainly the track program and Daily Racing Form) did not provide much information (such as useful speed figures, trip/trouble information, information on medication, such as Lasix). So I decided to start a daily report (called the Parker Page Report) that I sold at local 7-11’s, which gave this information about each horse racing on that day. I then contacted Longacres about the possibility of selling this report. The management of Longacres wasn’t really interested in the Parker Page Report, but they were interested in adding another tip sheet. I was able to get a contract to sell a tip sheet in 1985. Soon after I started doing classes on handicapping at the University of Washington, through the U of W’s Experimental College and also started claiming horses for my partnership.
Case the Race: In Parker’s Picks, you list your betting recommendations for each race for the top three horses plus a variety of exotic bets, including exactas, daily doubles, superfectas, and pick threes. Tell us your basic process for making these selections and how much time it takes.
LJ: I probably spend about two or so hours a day handicapping the races, then another hour typing in the sheet with all the picks, comments and exotic recommendations.
During non-racing days, I watch tapes of all the previous week’s races (which takes about four hours of work each week), do my variants and keep some trainer records. This is all without being at the track during live racing. I am at the track for all the races that are run live.
A given day for me is to get the Daily Racing Form (DRF), make note of my speed figures (both a pace and final figures), trips, biases and look at my trainer records for each horse in each race. I also collect any other information, such as breeding information for a first time starter. Then, after I have all that information in front of me, I go through each race and make my picks. That whole process again is about two hours. Since I do my sheet more than 24 hours in advance, I don't know late scratches or track condition or track odds, so I make selections without that information. But I suggest to my customers not to ignore those late changes as they can be significant. The exotics (tri's, supers, pick 3's, etc.) are all just attempts to give a decent chance with a small investment.
Case the Race: How has your experience as a thoroughbred owner influenced your handicapping?
JL: I have learned a lot about racing from the trainer’s point of view. I have also learned by owning horses the physical impact of racing on the horse, which has led me to a better understanding of horse racing overall. This better understanding of horse racing has helped me to become more successful as a bettor. Also, by owning horses, the excitement of watching your horse win a race is even more fun than cashing a ticket.
Case the Race: What advice would you give to aspiring handicappers?
JL: As for advice, wow -- I think the best advice I can give is that you become aware of all areas of handicapping from speed figures, trips, biases, physical condition, body language, medications, track surfaces, etc. and then concentrate on the area of handicapping where your strengths give you an advantage over the rest of the public. Everyone has certain strengths and weaknesses. The best advice I can give is to concentrate on the areas you like best, which are generally also are your strengths, without ignoring other areas of handicapping.
John Lindley, an Emerald Downs handicapper, has published Parker's selections since 1985. He is the author of Handicapping for Bettor or Worse and was a leading contributor of The Blood-Horse Authoritative Guide to Betting Thoroughbreds. He has taught seminars, appeared on the radio, and has worked with Emerald Downs in designing the Newcomers Center and some exotic wagering guides. During the racing season, he writes trip notes called, Race Notes, which appear on the Emerald Downs website. In addition, John is the Managing Partner of a partnership that breeds and races thoroughbreds. www.parkerspicks.com
