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Breeders' Cup Winning Handicappers Reflect
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Updated: Nov-10-2009 Created: Nov-09-2009
Mike DeAngelo, President of AplusThorobred
It's no secret that I use my software, A+ Thorobred, to make my selections. As the author, it would be hypocritical of me to do anything else. Where I do have some "wiggle room" is in determining which races to pass and what amounts to bet on the races I play. The program produces (among other things) an odds line, a power rating and an assessment of each horse's running style, all based on the typical handicapping variables you get in any good past performance files. The power rating of each horse is determined by each individual horse's past performance. The program computed odds line is arrived upon by considering all the individual power ratings which determine the probability of victory for each horse which can then be easily translated into an odds line. Obviously, the more horses in a race, the more unlikely that any one horse will be a standout in the odds line. A+ Thorobred picked Zenyatta on top and computed her odds line at 3/1, which was very close to the actual post time odds and would have been even closer if Quality Road hadn't been scratched at the gate. It also pegged her as the only "Strong Closer" in the race. What convinced me to recommend Zenyatta (besides the fact that she is one awesome animal) was the fact that her power rating was a full 27 points higher than the second rated horse, qualifying her as a standout. The $7.60 payoff was indeed generous for such a talented horse. But the real joy came in watching this history making race where raw talent prevailed in a last to first effort by a very special lady. Like the commentator on TV said, I would love to see Zenyatta hook up with Rachel Alexandra. That is one race we would all look forward to seeing if it ever happens. After the race, Mike Smith called Zenyatta the "horse of the decade" and I would have to agree at this point. Let's see if Rachel Alexandra's handlers agree.
Cwayne, of Picks and Plays
Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic was one of the most interesting races we've handicapped this year. At a mile and a quarter, it's designed to challenge and test the speed and endurance of the contestants.
Good handicappers always try to find the horse that can win and pay decent odds. We're reluctant to just endorse the race favorite and there was little doubt that, running for her hometown crowd, Zenyatta would be the betting favorite.
What made this race so interesting was that one truly had to look outside the box for our choice. After performing the detailed analysis of each entrant, Zenyatta wasn't our top pick. With a talented field of 3 year olds and a strong European contender, we started a process of elimination. None of the 4 year olds and up had numbers that competed favorably with Zenyatta so they were quickly eliminated from consideration. Rip Van Winkle was likely to be the second betting favorite and has questionable feet so we crossed him off. Knowing that a good older horse will beat a good younger horse most of the time and considering that the qualifying 3 year olds had had a grueling sophomore year and the distance races had taken a toll on their still developing physiques, Zenyatta became our one remaining choice.
Going beyond the quantifiable factors, Zenyatta is one of those rare horses with that "it" factor. She's a ham, loving the attention of the crowd and in return performing for them. As she went on to prove, she has so much heart that she'll find a way to win. We truly hope that she'll get the Horse of the Year honor that we feel she earned on Saturday.
Robert Pandolfo of Sharphorses
There were several reasons why I liked Life Is Sweet in the Ladies Classic. First of all, she had 3 win in 4 starts over the Pro Ride surface. Her only dull race this yeas was at Del Mar, she loves Santa Anita. Also, Life Is Sweet had raced twice at 9 furlongs, both over the Pro Ride surface, and had won both starts, GR1 and GR2 wins. So she obviously prefers the longer distance of 9f over 8.5. Another thing, I have a computer rating system (Diamond System) and one of the ratings is the Kick rating which shows the strongest finishers. Life Is Sweet’s Kick ratings were clearly superior in that race, and this rating is very important over the tiring Pro Ride surface. Another thing, in her prior start, the pace had been dawdling yet she gained ground from off the pace while going 8.5f, which is not her best distance. Finally, she was “getting away” from champion Zenyatta, who was not in the race. I think that the reason her odds were overlaid was because she didn’t have any triple digit speed figures, but horses like her that come from far back usually run as fast as they have to win and don’t always have the flashy speed figures. Zenyatta is a classic example of this. If Zenyatta had raced against Rachel Alexandra, Rachel would’ve been the favorite because she has run several huge speed figures. But Rachel Alexandra is a speed horse who often leaves fast and she can then dominate a field and run a fast time, essentially dictating the pace and speed of the race. Since Zenyatta sits last and makes one move, she is only going to go as fast as she can to get up in the final sixteenth, so her final time is dictated by the competition, and speed of the surface. This is why time and speed figures can sometimes be a bit misleading. Zenyatta doesn’t need the big speed figures, she proved in the classic that she is one of the greatest racehorses of all time.
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Nov 19, 2009 8:58 PM |
Does anyone care to share how can and should one properly gauge weight parallel to fractions of seconds.
For example we all can observe that Zenyatta ran 9furl. in 1:48 Flat @ Holl, weighing an unusual 129 pounds.
In Zenyatta's case how would a professional handicapper extrapolate, translate, or convert a whopping 129 pounds in seconds,that must therefore fairly deducted, as she actually conceded 12-15 plus pounds to all her opponents?
a)To this effect let's use the factor of plus 12 pound, versus 129 in this case? What may be your bottom line findings in ratio to fractions of seconds?
When the Euros visit us namely for our annual BC they too are most favoured by their huge weight reduction here in NA.
b)In general, for every two pounds how many fractions of a second should we deduct or add off every race horses track PP?.
Thanks to please reconfirm.
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Nov 19, 2009 12:36 AM |
Why would Moss retire her Zenyatta well before her best racing. Its the only sad part of all this.!
Why retire Zensational? So he got beat he had no chance from post #1 anyway. Why do these owners pull from the sport instead of increase it. Its hard to understand! |
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