Breeders’ Cup Tips from Meadows, Benewitz, DeJulio Needham and Michaels
Five prominent handicappers weighed in with tips, predictions, and insights for finding value at the 2009 Breeders’ Cup. All the handicappers agree that the Breeders’ Cup is both a challenge and an opportunity. According to Barry Meadows, author of Money Secrets at the Racetrack and full-time professional horseplayer, one of the difficulties in handicapping the Breeders’ Cup is that, “There are fewer easy throwouts and many more questions.” Despite the difficulties in handicapping the Breeders’ Cup, Noel Michaels, house handicapper and director of player development at Nassau OTB, outlines the opportunity for finding value. Michaels remarked, “You can really get good prices and good value in the Breeders' Cup because, in many cases, the favorites are hard to identify and the public's choices are often not my choices in each race...” Rick Needham, handicapper and TrackMaster evangelist, noted that only 22.3% of the betting favorites have won Breeders’ Cup races. The average payout for the Breeders’ Cup Classic is $32.50, according to Needham, who also observed that there have been several pick sixes over a million dollars. As far as predictions go, workout specialist Bruno DeJulio predicts that “the pro-ride will kill brilliant speed.” While the handicappers offered specific recommendations for how to approach this event, Thoro-Graph and a regular contributor to Inside Racing with Jason Lebin, Alan Benewitz made a wholistic comment that encompassed them all, “…you got to get in a groove and adjust to conditions”
Are there any differences between handicapping the Breeders’ Cup and handicapping other races or events? If so, what are the differences?
“Yes, there is a big difference, big fields and quality throughout. We are familiar with our horses. The Breeders Cup brings a slew of horses that we have not had any exposure to. New trainers and new jockeys and their ability to adapt to the new surfaces and racing in California.” – Bruno DeJulio
“There is a huge difference in handicapping the Breeders' Cup Races compared to going to your home track and handicapping the races for any particular day. One has to remember that the Breeders' Cup Races involve the world's best Thoroughbreds which qualify for our "World Series of Horse Racing" via a complex point system using "Graded Stake Races" and purse monies earned as a criteria. …Using TrackMaster Software, I consider myself as a "negative handicapper" - meaning that I am not necessarily trying to find the winner in a race will be, but I try to eliminate those entries that have no chance of hitting the board. Those entries that are left in my consideration then are boxed in my exotic wagers. So if I go to my home-town-track, Penn National, on a Saturday night ... I can usually eliminate 3/4 of the entries in any particular race, and have had great successes boxing exactas, trifectas etc. with the entries that I have not eliminated! However...[because of the level of talent] in The Breeders' Cup ... on any given race ... virtually any horse might win ... or break into an exotic wager.”- Rick Needham
“These races are often difficult to handicap because you have horses shipping from distant circuits, horses who've never raced on Pro-Ride, horses who may be ‘shoe-horned’ into a particular event which might not be at their optimal distance, etc. There are fewer easy throwouts and many more questions.” - Barry Meadows
“The biggest difference by far for the BC vis-a-vis other events is that there are huge handles for 14 races, not just one like the Derby. The point is that there are many more opportunities to be well rewarded for good handicapping. Don't press. Be at one with the process--Siddhartha and tbred handicapping 101.” – Alan Benewitz
“Handicapping the Breeders' Cup is very different from handicapping day-to-day races because you can actually find champion-caliber horses that are going off at better than their usual even-money odds.”- Noel Michaels
Do you have any specific recommendations for how or where to find value?
“No, but what I will say is that with large fields which most of these races will have, it's even tougher to take a short price. Many more starters means many more outcomes which means much more uncertainty.” – Alan Benewitz
“You may be able to find lightly raced horses, particularly in the four 2-year-old events, who may outrun their numbers at big prices. Americans also have a tendency to downgrade the chances of Europeans simply because they're not familiar with them--but these horses are not shipped 6,000 miles for nothing.” – Barry Meadows
“You can really get good prices and good value in the Breeders' Cup because, in many cases, the favorites are hard to identify and the public's choices are often not my choices in each race. Because of the large fields, wide-open races, and fair tote board prices, you can make a lot of money just by cashing 1 or 2 good bets a day. Plus, the thing about Breeders' Cup favorites that I like is that sometimes, even the public choices are 4-1 or 5-1 on the tote board. I don't mind betting the favorite if it's paying $10+, especially if it's a bet on what I expect to be a championship caliber horse.” – Noel Michaels
“You find the value in winners. Funny, yes, hahaha! But true. Value is not betting the 20-1 because he is value, but because he can win, a 20-1 loser has no value. A 4-5 winner has value. Value, to me, getting paid, no value, is losing. End of story. The droves that believe they are betting value and losing are just fooling themselves.” – Bruno DeJulio
Do you have any early predictions for any of the races?
“No. I don't start handicapping until the entries are finalized, the posts are drawn, the morning line is posted, and the scratches are made.” – Barry Meadows
"… the pro-ride will kill brilliant speed. Prediction that Europeans will dominate again on turf and pro-ride.” – Bruno DeJulio
“Early predictions? I expect another good year for West coast-based horses and Europeans, but not quite a clean sweep like last year. I think the U.S. horsemen have learned a lot from what happened at last year's Breeders' Cup, and I expect they will be making the necessary adjustments this year to prepare their horses. This includes Eastern trainers, too, who should hold their own by winning more races this year than they did last year.” - Noel Michaels
“My earlier ‘pick’ as a potential winner was Einstein, a Brazilian-bred entry ... and my opinion has not changed ... The Classic will also draw some new attention this week when the owners of the undefeated (13 straight wins) filly, Zenyatta will probably run against the colts, although I also note that she is also entered in The Ladies Classic!" –Rick Needham
Any general tips for handicapping the Breeders’ Cup?
“Yes, try to ascertain if horses are sufficiently acclimated. Traditionally East coast shippers have a tough time shipping into SA or Hol and winning. For some reason the Euros are much more successful than the cross-country US counterparts. Sufficient acclimation may overcome this problem. Get the right horse for the course. SA synthetic is not dirt--more complementary to turf form. It's tough to ask a horse to run and succeed 1st time over the surface against experienced foes. The BC comes at the end of the year and some horses may be played out by then--try to focus on fresh, or relatively fresh horses.Simple but you got to get in a groove and adjust to conditions.” – Alan Benewitz
“I would suggest going to nickmordin.com for Nick's insights into the Europeans. As a general rule--if you don't have an opinion about a race, or your opinion matches the crowd's odds, you're better off skipping the race. Many players get seduced into trying for big exotic payoffs when they don't have any clear opinion. Yes, you can make a lot of money during the Breeders' Cup, but you can also throw away a lot.” – Barry Meadows
“General tips? From what I'm hearing and reading in the media, handicappers all over the place will be hammering the Euro horses and Santa Anita-based horses this year based on what happened last year. To me, this means those horses will be big underlays, leaving many other good horses out there as big overlays on the tote board. I'll be selectively combing the fields for overlay horses that the betting public isn't giving enough attention and respect, and I'll be rolling the dice and hoping to cash one or two big tickets.” – Noel Michaels
“My handicapping suggestion then is not to eliminate the "mid-ranged longshots!" Since the "rules" for entering this day of racing have changed, I note that only 22.3% of the betting favorites have won B.C. Races, and the average payout for the Breeders' Cup Classic is a whopping, $32.50, and there have been several PICK-SIXES that have exceeded $1,000,000.00! So if you are, like me, playing the exotic wagers, my suggestion is to include the 5-1, 6-1, etc. wagers in your "gimmicks!"……Keep you eye also on any entry ridden by ‘The Queen's Jockey,’ (Frankie Dettori) ... who will have numerous entries on Friday and Saturday.”—Rick Needham
“ “See the ball, be the ball," Ty Webb, Caddyshack. General tips would be check workout reports, but just not about if the work was good, but look for clues in the report on visual appearances of the animal. If they noted as being light, and worked well, most likely that work may take more weight and flesh off. You have to read between the lines. First pro-ride workers may not like it. In the afternoon at full speed (not front end speed, just running naturally), it is a different set of circumstances. Also, there is no advantage of training here and running here at Santa Anita. Good luck to all.” – Bruno DeJulio
