When it comes to handicapping the Breeders’ Cup, Jim Mazur has written the book – literally.  Crushing the Cup 2009, the 18th edition by authors Jim Mazur and Peter Mallett, offers a comprehensive analysis based on previous Breeders’ Cup results.  Jim Mazur, the owner of Progressive Handicapping, Inc. and author of several meet- and event-specific books, was motivated to create the original Crushing the Cup out of frustration and a desire to improve the process of handicapping the Breeders’ Cup.  Since then, the Progressive Handicapping Inc. has added a second Breeder’s Cup publication called The Crushing Zones to their list.  

By analyzing past results, Mazur and Mallett identify patterns and profiles of winners.  These profiles allow the authors to stratify horses according to three categories:  “Contenders” (horses that match up to the historical profile); “Grey Zone” (horses with some of the qualities of previous winners and some that differ); and “Pretenders” (horses without any significant similarities to previous winners of that particular race). “What changes from year to year is the site.  We do a whole chapter on Santa Anita.  It will be Churchill Downs next year.” Mazur explained.

The analysis is not the only interesting thing about Mazur and Mallet’s book.  Their candor in disclosing their past results also sets their book apart.  “One of the main features of [Crushing the Cup] that readers like and that attracts them to buy it each year is that we recap what happened last year and how we did, and what we did in action...  People like to see the human element and how we apply the principles.”

The Crushing Zones, which comes out just before the Breeders’ Cup, applies the theories from Crushing the Cup to the upcoming race by looking at each of the entrants and placing them into one of the three categories in advance of the race.

Many 2008 Winners Were Identified In Advance

So, how did they do in 2008?  Last year, 6 of the 14 Breeders’ Cup winners came from the authors’ top category of the “Crush Zone” and 5 came from the “Grey Zone” category.  (See ‘08 Crushing Zone Report Card below.)

Overview of Crushing The Cup 2009

Crushing the Cup 2009 begins with a recap of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita. It includes a complete analysis of the host site, which will be Santa Anita again this year.  The coverage of Santa Anita incorporates details such as how the Pro Ride surface plays and other idiosyncrasies of the host site.  “For example, the turf course there is very strange, especially the turf sprint… it’s not like any other course in North America.  So we go over that.” Mazur explained.  The book goes race by race, including a summary of previous winners, trainers, riders, payoffs, running style of past winners at all the various host sites.  From all this, Mazur and Mallett profile each race to develop a winner’s profile.  In addition, readers will get past performances, post positions, pedigrees, jockeys and trainer angles.  The book itself is 130 pages, but purchasers also have access to about 100 additional pages of appendices online for no additional charge.

The Crushing Zones 2009 Provides Timely Information on Specific Entrants

Although The Crushing Zones 2009 is a standalone publication that can be used independently of Crushing the Cup 2009, the two publications are related.  “Once the pre-entered horses are announced we match up the historical profile from [Crushing the Cup] to who is running each year and we put out a book by race in which we stratify the horses into one of three different categories.  Those would be either contenders – horses that match up to the historical profile, those in the grey zone – horses who have some of the qualities of previous winners and some that don’t, or pretenders – horses that don’t have any of the background points to previous winners in that particular race. And then we write an analysis for each of the races.  So it’s not telling the readers 1, 2, 3, but it’s taking the theory in the book and applying the theory to the horses that are actually running.” Mazur said.

The Crushing Zones 2009 is only available online.

How are Crushing Publications different from other things out there?

"I think we’re about the only ones who want to put out a book on the Breeders’ Cup every year.” Mazur said.  “I’m sure there are tout services that will give you selections for the Breeders’ Cup, but nobody goes through it like we do and analyzes it in a historical fashion."

Where to get it?

Both Crushing the Cup 2009 and The Crushing Zones 2009 are available directly from Progressive Handicapping, Inc.  The Crushing Zones 2009 will become available next weekend. During the week following, the authors will continue to update readers online to take into account any changes they notice in the final week of preparations.  These updates will be available online to purchasers of The Crushing Zones 2009.

The Crushing Zones 2009 is only available online and can be ordered from Progressive Handicapping Inc. directly through their website, or by calling 1-800-272-8039.

Profiles From Progressive Handicapping Inc.

Progressive Handicapping Inc. provided us with the following winning profiles for 2009.

Friday Breeders’ Cup Races

Filly and Mare Sprint (only 2 editions)--look for a late-runner with one or more wins at 7 furlongs.

Juvenile Filly Turf (only 1 edition)—lone winner debuted with a win on turf and then won a stakes.

Juvenile Fillies (25 editions)—look for the “NOW” filly based in SoCal (“NOW” filly = coming off career best effort).

Filly and Mare Turf (10 editions)—CLASS is the key here, so key on domestic runners that have earned a Grade I victory or a European invader that has won any graded stakes.  A 104+ Beyer speed rating (or 111 Racing Post Rating) is also a plus.

Distaff (25 editions)—look for a locally-based Grade I winner that has one or more wins at the race distance.

Saturday Breeders’ Cup Races

Marathon (only 1 edition)—breeding is the key for this 1 ½ mile test of stamina.

Turf Sprint (only 1 edition)—success over the tricky Santa Anita downhill course will help you separate the field.  Note that European invaders have a better chance to adapt than domestics shipping in from the east coast.

Dirt Mile (only 2 editions)—local runners with success at a flat mile should have the edge.  Both winners of this event had competed against Grade I company earlier in the campaign.

Turf Mile (25 editions)—the mile specialist (be it domestic or European) with a 109+ Beyer (or 117 RPR) is your best play.

Juvenile (25 editions)—look for a locally-based runner that fared well in the Norfolk.

Juvenile Turf (only 2 editions)—the European invaders didn’t show up for the first edition at Monmouth Park but came in force last year and took home first prize.  Expect quality runners to cross the pond again in 2009.

Sprint (25 editions)--look for a late-runner with one or more wins at 6 furlongs.  Those coming into the race off a 45+ day layoff deserve a second look.

Turf (25 editions)—Grade I winner that also has enjoyed success at 1 ½ miles is the play here.  The Europeans routinely compete at this race distance thus giving them an edge over domestic runners.

Classic (25 editions)—the four editions held at Santa Anita have been won by two locally-based winners and two European invaders.  Stick with that formula.
    
Chart with Running Styles of 2008 Breeders’ Cup Winners

‘08 Crushing Zone Report Card

Winners From the Crush Zone:

•    Ventura (FM Sprint) at 5-2
•    Stardom Bound  (Juv Fillies) at 8-5
•    Zenyatta (Distaff) at 1-2
•    Albertus Maximus (Dirt Mile) at 6-1
•    Goldikova (Turf Mile) at 9-5
•    Midshipman (Juvenile) at 7-2

Winners From The Gray Zone:

•    Forever Together (FM Turf) at 9-2
•    Muhannak (Marathon) at 12-1
•    Donativum (Juv Turf) at 5-1
•    Midnight Lute (Sprint) at 5-2
•    Raven’s Pass (Classic) at 13-1