Case the Race asked two British horse racing specialists to tell us what we might expect from European Contenders at the upcoming Breeders’ Cup. 

Sorting through the language of “tipsters”, “backers”, and “layers” can almost make European horse racing seem like a different sport than North American horse racing, but the handicapping fundamentals are the same – to analyze horses and try to predict the outcome of a race.  Jamie Currie, the founder of horse racing tips and the advice website Expert Betting Advice, regretted that Sea The Stars would not be racing, but remarked that, “…even without that superstar, we still have a very strong hand.”  In a spirit of good-natured rivalry, Carl Harris from RacingDiary.co.uk made this assertion: “It could be total domination by the Europeans at the Breeders’ Cup 2009.  Bring it on!”

CASE: Last year, European-trained horses did extremely well at the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita.  With the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita again this year, should we expect more of the same? 

Harris: In 2008 European-trained horses had their best ever Breeders. The consensus amongst trainers was that the climate, but primarily, the surface at Santa Anita was the reason why their horses performed so well. With the event being held at Santa Anita again this year, you can expect more runners and an even better showing from across the pond.

Currie:  I'd expect the European horses to perform well again at Santa Anita in this year's Breeders Cup. Possibly not to the extent they did last year but we certainly have a number of horses going there with a favourite's chance. It will be a bit of a shock if a European runner isn't successful in both the mile and the turf.

I don't believe last year's success for European runners had much to do with the Santa Anita track; I just believe the European runners have been a particularly good crop for the last couple of seasons. It's a real shame Sea The Stars has been retired now and won't be making an appearance but even without that superstar, we still have a very strong hand.

Do you have comments about any particular horses to watch or early predictions?

Currie:  A lot of credit for the success of the European runners must go to the handlers. Trainers such as Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O'Brien seem to be able to get their horses to peak at the Breeders, even after a tough season here as well as the travelling to contend with. Their records down the years show they don't come to the Breeders Cup just for a day out.

Speaking of Sir Michael Stoute, his runner Conduit has a great chance of making it back to back wins in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He might not be much of a price, but he's a horse that looks to get better as the season progresses and has some rock solid form behind Sea The Stars this year.  After an excellent run in the Arc, he can get a well-deserved second win of the season under his belt.

Aidan O'Brien is very well represented again this year with Rip Van Winkle in the Classic and Mastercraftsman in the Mile. He also has Septimus at the head of the market for the Marathon.

Ever since his run in the 2000 Guineas at the start of the season, I thought Rip Van Winkle had the look of a horse that would have a massive chance of success at the Breeders’ Cup. Just a hunch more than anything, but I knew he wasn't at his best in the 2000 and needed a couple of runs, so to finish as close as he did meant he was special. I've taken some decent prices about him so Rip Van Winkle is the one I'll be keeping everything crossed for.  If it wasn't for Sea The Stars, he'd be the horse everyone was talking about this year.

At bigger odds, maybe Muhannak can steal some each-way money in the Marathon. He has been bitterly disappointing since his victory in last year's event but maybe a return to the Santa Anita track can bring an improvement in form for Beckett's charge.

Harris:  Last years’ winners Conduit and super filly Goldikova will be back to defend their titles and are short price favorites to do so, bankers in my view. Despite the retirement of the world’s best horse, Sea The Stars, the Classic will see Rip Van Winkle start as a favorite who has form to justify that position and, in my opinion, is the best bet of the meeting.

Dar Re Mi, in the Filly and Mare Turf, hails from John Gosden’s stable. [Gosden,] a man who knows Santa Anita well and landed the big one last year with Ravens pass, will be hard to beat. The Marathon should go to a European raider and, in my view, it could be total domination by the Europeans at the Breeders’ Cup 2009.  Bring it on! ...

…In summary, the best of the European horses and ones to back in my view:

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf:  Dar Re Mi

Breeders’ Cup Turf:  Conduit

Breeders’ Cup Mile:  Goldikova

Breeders’ Cup Classic: Rip Van Winkle

What advice would you give to American horseplayers about how to analyze the European contenders?

Currie:  Probably the best pointer I can give, as far as the European runners are concerned, is don't let a long hard season put you off backing a European entrant, especially one from the Adian O'Brien yard.  Obviously, if you can come to the Breeders’ with a relatively fresh horse it's a positive, but O'Brien  seems to be able to get his horses to come good again at the end of the season when required, and his past record speaks for itself.