By Rick Needham
This week Case the Race asked multi-sport handicapper, Rick Needham to compare the parallels and differences between football and horse racing handicapping strategies. We even got him to give us a few early picks for the Breeders ‘Cup and Super Bowl. “In terms of the Breeders' Cup ... possibly Einstein --- Super Bowl possibilities ... right now I like the Saints, the Ravens and the Giants as contenders ... long shot pick to make it to the Super Bowl ... New York Jets!” said Needham.
Many sports handicappers, who transition easily from football to baseball, shy away from horse racing. It’s not uncommon for sports handicapping sites to handle every sport except horse racing in house while outsourcing the sport of kings… Likewise, some horse racing handicappers prefer to stick to horse racing. Needham, however, manages to apply a thoughtful, diligent approach to handicapping both sports, drawing from the similarities while being mindful of the differences. Here is his insight on the topic…
Background on TrackMaster and SportsMaster
Handicapping thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping college and professional football using a computer, has some interesting "corollaries," especially here at Axcis Information Systems (the developers of TrackMaster Software Products for horse racing, as well as the developer of SportsMaster for Football handicapping software). The key component of the horse racing product was a concept known as "POWER RATINGS" (a term that has now been "adopted" by numerous organizations such as the Associated Press, ESPN, and Fox Sports to categorize the effectiveness of college and professional football teams). Axcis did not have a "patent" on this expression, however it is indeed "flattering" that the term is used by virtually every organization (even my local newspaper here in Pennsylvania) to compare the strengths -- or lack thereof -- of football teams. Unfortunately (for me), when the TrackMaster system was sold to Equibase in Kentucky, one of the first "directives" of Equibase was a mandate that we concentrate only on horse racing, and the SportsMaster for Football software project was discontinued. On the other hand, fortunately (for me) I was involved in the evolution, and daily maintenance of the SportsMaster for Football data bases, so I have an "inside view" of the handicapping process for college and professional football (and basketball).
Power Ratings
The "POWER RATINGS" for horse racing involves three key factors ... SPEED, CLASS and PACE. Although these "POWER RATINGS" are far from being perfect, a user of the TrackMaster Horse Racing software, especially the users who are just occasional horseplayers will find that their "bottom line" will be improved by just hitting the "sort button" on their computer to arrange horses' "POWER" in descending order from highest to lowest and placing a win wager on the top "POWER RATED" entry in that field. For the football "punter," a similar analogy can be used.
Speed
Speed is essentially a measure of a horse's overall velocity ... or in Football terms ... how fast are a team's wide receivers, or running backs?
Class
Class is a function of not only the competitive level of a horse's recent races (running at the Triple Crown level - or a $5,000.00 claiming race at Penn National) as well as a measure of the horse's breeding - sire and dam statistics. (Example - will a maiden first time starter sired by Storm Cat have a better chance of beating an entry in the same race sired by Family Calling? Probably ... but this is why our sport(s) are predicated by the term "gambling!" (So is the Stock Market by the way!) Will Penn State beat Akron? Probably ... but then this year, South Florida beat Florida State! Will a horse that has "hit the board" in two of the three Triple Crown Races win a $75,000.00 allowance race at Arlington ... possibly ... but for you "Show Bet" patrons ... you have a great chance of cashing a $2.60 ticket! When names like New York Yankees, Los Angeles Lakers, and Pittsburgh Steelers are mentioned, you have a great opportunity to win placing a single wager on these teams. Here is where "CLASS" in the two sports has a disparity ... in wagering on football, there is a "Money Line Option" which allows the bettor to simply pick the winner of a game. Since there are only 2 options in football, the "flip a coin option calculation" is simply 50% / 50%. However with some basic knowledge of the "POWER RATINGS," one could improve the "odds" by choosing the higher rated football team. Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions ... I'll TAKE THE COWBOYS! In horse racing however, the "Money Line Equivalent" is a win wager. Unfortunately, there are few "Match Races" offered ... your money line wager is often a comparison of up to 12 "teams" ... so the risk involved is much higher. And if the top "POWER RATED" horse is also the morning line favorite, the chances of making a profit on this race is diminished ... especially since the betting favorite at North American tracks wins only about 31% of the time!
Pace
Pace is a measure of a horse's ability to race effectively at a particular distance over either dirt or grass. In a wagering sense, this is actually easier to handicap in racing than in football! One of the tools that I use when handicapping via TrackMaster's software, is the PACE CALCULATOR. It is especially good when handicapping races in which the entries in the field have had more than 5 starts racing at a particular distance on either the dirt or turf surfaces. One simply hits the "sort button" and the results may look like this ... 4.2 - 3.1 - 2.5 - 10 ... this means that this entry has had 10 starts at this particular distance/surface combination, and at three different "calls" in the race, he/she began in fourth place, improved to 3rd, and on the average in these 10 races, finished about 2nd. As opposed to another entry in this same race with a "pace profile" of 2.5 - 3.9 - 6.2 - 10 ... which means that in 10 starts, this entry started well ... in 2nd place, but gradually faded to nearly 4th, and in these 10 races finished about 6th! In football, this calculation is harder to determine ... however there is indeed a "PACE COMPONENT" to consider ... some teams score most of their points, or a many trips to the "RED ZONE", in the early part of the game as opposed to the end of the game. Other teams obviously do the opposite. In handicapping football, I look for teams that have a BALANCED PACE, with little difference in their first half, and second half performances. Horses that have a great "finishing kick" - especially in sprint races (7.0 furlongs or less), are a lot more "predictable winners" than teams like The Minnesota Vikings, who used a last second TD pass by Brett Favre to win last weekend ... I had wagered on The Vikings to lose this game based on "PACE!"
Patrons of the Two Sports
In terms of wagering on football and horse racing, the statistics on "patrons" who wager on these sports are interesting, if not predictable. You will find that many horse racing bettors also wager on college and professional sports ... however, the majority of sports bettors, wager only on sports ... few wager on horse racing on a regular basis, limiting their "honey, I'm going to the track today" excursions to the Triple Crown events, possibly for the Breeders' Cup, or a "company outing" on a Friday night to drink beer and eat "hot wings!" The reason that I mention this is for the serious horse bettors ... on days/nights like this, with inexperienced handicappers in "the house" ... a software program such as TrackMaster (and I mention this product because I work for Axcis Information Systems - there are other excellent software products - such as the Daily Racing Form's "Formulator" software), relying mainly on the "POWER RATING" function, because inexperienced "horse players" will allow the betting odds to "oscillate" ... I hear often .. especially on weekends at racing tracks ... "I love that horse's name ... I always bet on the pink silks ... my lucky number is 7 ... that jockey is cute ... my birthday is April 2nd, so I'll box 4 & 2 for the exacta!" This brings up a discussion on the way that odds are calculated for sports and horse racing ... and there is a HUGE DIFFERENCE!
Horse Racing Better Bet Against Each Other
In horse racing, wagering is driven by a system known as "Pari-Mutual" - which is a French expression translated into English as "amongst us all." When one goes to the track, and buys a program, there is an initial "line" that is published known as "The Morning Line." This odds line was determined by the track's official handicapper who using some solid racing knowledge, is estimating what the probable odds will be at post-time. Those odds however change every 60 seconds when wagering on a particular race begins ... so if a company like General Motors is having an "outing" at Pinnacle Race Course, and the entry General Pontiac with a morning line of 12-1, suddenly drops to 2-1, the "amongst us all" factor kicks in because of the "I like the name of this horse" concept now takes effect, and the morning line favorite, Toyota Cruiser ... who is also the top "POWER RATED" entry, has his odds go from 5-2 to 4-1 .. now becomes an "overlay!" Go For it! We are betting against each other... not against the track or the morning line handicapper!
Football Bettors Bet Against the House
In football, or sports wagering ... you are indeed wagering against "the house!" In college and professional football, those lines (point spreads) are set usually on Wednesday in Las Vegas or Reno, and rarely change up until game time. So if the same General Motors horse racing party decides to play $10,000.00 on The Lions to beat The Redskins ... the point spread favoring The Redskins will not change on Sunday. About the only time that you will see a line change in college or professional football change during the week or just before the game is if a star player is injured … or arrested ... etc. That could influence the final betting line. However, in football wagering, you have a "shield" ... if you wager on The Giants vs. The Cowboys, on a Wednesday evening... taking The Giants to win, although The Cowboys are favored by 3.0 points ... that wager is "fixed" (assuming you are betting in Nevada, or via a legitimate sports betting source), and Tony Romo is injured in practice on Friday, and the line is changed in Las Vegas ... your original wager is "LOCKED!" In horse racing ... if you place a bet on the 12-1 longshot General Pontiac 30 minutes before post time, and the odds fall to 2-1 ... your original wager is NOT LOCKED ... hint ... wait until nearly post time to place your racing wagers ... watch the "tote board" carefully ... (for you folks who are new to horse racing ... the term "tote board" is attributed to the first manufacturer of an electronic "scoreboard" - American Totatilizer. - and for you "trivia buffs" - the first electronic board was installed at a track in New Zealand - the first in the U.S. was at Hialeah Park in Florida!)
Long Vs. Short Season
[Case the Race] asked me to comment on "the lengths" of seasons ... short for football ... long for horse racing ... Actually, there is a good "handicapping factor" in this regard to consider wagering on both sports. Sure ...the racing season is essentially "on-going" ... there are Thoroughbred horse races being contested on EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR in North America (with the exception of Christmas Day - Hialeah ran a "Christmas Card" before they closed down), and the football season is obviously limited to about 20 weeks (assuming a team makes the playoffs or is invited to a bowl game) so on "the surface" it would look like there is a big disparity in making a handicapping decision. Well ... there is an "angle" to play when comparing these wagering opportunities ... and that is "days off!" In horse racing, although a horse has an opportunity to race frequently, because of weather conditions, track conditions, illnesses, injuries, the owners' financial obligations etc. ... it often leads to "layoffs." I am very cognizant of "time off" in horse racing, as it is an important factor in making my handicapping decisions. Here is where knowledge of handicapping comes into play ... not simply sorting "POWER RATINGS" from highest to lowest. Those POWER RATINGS" are an evaluation of a Thoroughbred horses' abilities, not his/her current condition ... a wild example ... the great Thoroughbred Cigar is now resting comfortably at the Kentucky Horse Park near Lexington, KY ... his owner decides that this 18 year old Thoroughbred, now overweight, needs to race again ... he enters Cigar in an allowance race at Keeneland ... his statistics are then entered into a database, and without question ... he will be the top POWER RATED entry in this field. The track handicapper lists his morning line at 100--1 (that is the highest allowed by computer systems ... although the "real odds" are probably equivalent to Avagadro's number (that's the chemistry teacher side of me) ... for me ... I am skeptical of horses that have been "laid off" for more than 60 days ... Thoroughbred horses are athletes ... and they need to compete ... when Michael Jordan made a "comeback" playing for Washington ... he was the Cigar of professional basketball ... the "POWER RATINGS" using SportMaster for Basketball has Washington's level immediately rising when his name was entered into the database ... "layoffs" are indeed easy to track in both racing and football ... the track program always lists at least the last 5 races of every entry in the field ... just check the date of the entry's last race, and if it was more than 2 months ago, "downgrade" this entry's possibility of winning. The NFL publishes weekly a list of injured players, and it is easy to add this list into your handicapping efforts. It would have been nice if The New York Jets had published the fact that Brett Favre was essentially "doubtful" for the last 6 games of the season last year because of a shoulder injury ... they are being fined for this "overlook" because they knew that he would "play through pain." That of course ends my discussion of handicapping football and horse racing with a comment on "honesty." Both sports suffer from a "dark side" unfortunately ... I guess once again ... that's why it is called "Gambling" (hmmm ... stock market ---- honest?)
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For more information on Rick Needham (and to learn about his tri-lingual business negotiations) check out Rick Needham’s Better Bettor.
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