By James Robins
Trainers: Some handicappers love them, and other handicappers loathe them. No matter where you stand, trainers probably have the most accurate take on how his thoroughbred is going to perform on any given day. This is serious knowledge to possess, and knowing how trainers work can give us a tremendous advantage in a race. This brings up the question: Why do we know so little about trainers, especially when they are so important?
First of all, the role of the trainer and/or the job description of the trainer have grown at a rapid rate over the past few decades. In the earlier days, the relationship was much simpler. The owner bought a horse and hired the trainer to prepare it for racing, usually with a favorite jockey. When the horse was ready to run, the trainer told the owner, the owner filed the paperwork and the only thing left was the actual race. Sweet, neat and simple.
As the 1960’s and 1970’s saw larger purses and owners who controlled entire stables, more and more trainers were given more than one horse to manage. As a result, trainers earned enough money to own their own stable of horses. This led to an interesting situation: Some trainers still managed one horse per owner, like in the older days. Other trainers found themselves as owners. And, according to the class of the horses and/or the primary stable location, trainers brought in other trainers to prepare horses for various races.
In brief, on one end of the scale, we had a trainer who had managed to see one or more horses and claim them. Many of these trainers really worked in the trenches. In most cases, if their horse didn’t win, they could not pay their bills, the most important of which was the stable bill, i.e., the “room and board” for keeping the horse properly fed and housed. The jockey did not have it easy, either. Many jockeys would show up at 4:30 am, and volunteer to exercise horses for free, hoping to grow close to the horse and trainer, and thus earn an opportunity to ride.
A good number of these “owner/trainers” are still with us at most tracks. And, don’t let their lower ranking fool you. Some trainers both enjoy and make more money at the small tracks. In fact, these claiming races are the “bread and butter” of the horse racing industry. A good horse can spend his entire career moving up and down the claiming ladder. A prime example is the race designed for 4-year olds and higher, many times for only fillies and mares. Claiming races require a unique skill, i.e., making money without losing your horse in a claim. At these smaller and medium-sized tracks, a good stakes race is often a once a week event at a track like Finger Lakes, Charles Town, Penn National, Mountaineer, and dozens of other smaller tracks. I enjoy these races, as the local players are proud of their track and can be tough competition. Plus, the other races on their “Derby Day” can offer a full-card of excitement.
These smaller tracks run longer meets. Fans of these tracks get to know the trainers and their horses. Sure, shippers will come in, hoping to make some extra money from the mutuel pools, but these tracks mostly cater to local fans. Always double-check shippers at smaller tracks. They didn’t drive all night to simply enjoy the scenery.
Tip: Be careful about wagering at smaller tracks during the last week of a meet. In most cases, the regular jockeys who have done well will be at the track, meeting owners and trainers, “networking” and “marketing their skills.” In short, they have had a good meet and they want more money and the prestige of riding better horses. Meanwhile, trainers are meeting owners, trying to get that nod to move from the minors to the major leagues of professional horse racing, those tracks like SoCal, where a $5,000 Claimer is transformed into a $50,000 Claimer. Welcome to the big league.
At larger tracks, the same basic activities are going on, but in many cases, jockeys and trainers have representatives, called “agents.” The agents have their own “stables,” stables of winning jockeys and trainers whom they believe deserve to move up to a higher level in the industry. It’s not quite the horse racing version of “Jerry McGuire,” but it is close. Good jockeys and trainers are both respected and are a valued commodity. If you owned an expensive horse that could earn $2,000,000 in one season, plus offer a return of $10,000,000 in retirement stud fees, you would want only the best, too. Plus, just one fantastic graded stakes win can change a jockey’s life, move him up into a $1,000,000 yearly earnings gain and make him almost a household name.
Now, our discussion reaches further than just small tracks with trainers who just happen to be owners, as well. Let’s take a look at Santa Anita (SAX) last Spring on a Sunday afternoon. The winner of the first race was trained by John K. Dolan, who also happens to own the horse. The winner of the 9th race was trained by Ricardo Zamora who also happened to own the horse. In fact, all week, trainer/owners had won one or more races per day. Even though the connection was solid, it was overlooked by most. It was a time when “lengths behind in the past three races” and “a horse dropping in class” meant little. The Owner/Trainer/Jockey connection meant everything.
Sometimes, for various reasons, the connection is a little less obvious. For instance, often a trainer has a wife who owns horses, that are trained by the husband. And, of course, the last names do not match. The reasoning here is not rocket science. If they own the horse and have a close relationship with a 15%+ jockey, then you can be pretty sure they are doing everything possible to make sure the horse is “live” (well-trained and ready to win). If the horse was not going for a win, they would be throwing their own money out of the window, right? Let’s take an example:
In the 2008 Blue Grass Stakes, I liked Monba, a 15-1 ML longshot. In fact, in his last race, the Fountain of Youth, Monba had finished 40 lengths behind the leader. But, I knew the inter-relationship of the owner/trainer/jockey/breeder. Depending on the race, their low-key “team” was winning up to 50% of the time. Luckily, Monba came through for me at Keeneland.
In 2007, I spent a lot of time watching the races at Louisiana Downs. Yes, it was a smaller track. And, yes, often the same horses ran there. However, I really enjoyed it. When a horse came in after a layoff, you knew it. And, you probably knew the nature of the layoff. Of course, everyone knew all of the jockeys, and even though most races were in the area of $5,000 to $10,000 claimers, well, no matter how you cut it, $5,000 was $5,000. It was ironic that at the exact same time, at tracks like Hollywood Park, other, faster horses were running in $50,000 claimers on an everyday basis, too. However, the exercise helped me to learn basic trainer moves and how to wager them.
In my book, I offer a method of choosing winners that takes about 30-seconds, is consistent, and earns $1.38 for every dollar wagered. Not bad for a 30-second system. (Numbers based on independent, published statistics.)
Now, having covered smaller, more local tracks, let’s look at an example of a small trainer at a small track who grew into the big tracks and developed into a professional position that coined the phrase “super-trainer.”
D. Wayne Lukas controls large stables on both coasts. Many were listed as trainers, but with so many horses to manage, scheduling races and taking care of those horses that were being prepped for stakes races, life was both hectic and quite rewarding.
Lukas is a former high school basketball coach with a Master’s degree in Education who became one of the most successful horse trainers in American history. Born and raised on a small farm in Wisconsin, he grew up with an interest in horses.
He began training quarter horses in California in 1968 and after ten years he had trained 23 world champions. Then, he switched to training thoroughbred race horses. He was the first trainer to earn more than $100 million in purse money, perhaps becoming the first “super-trainer.”
His horses have won Triple Crown races over ten times. He is now an executive, but his contributions to horse racing in America are legendary and may never be eclipsed (pun intended…he has won the Eclipse Award.)
What can we learn from trainers to help our handicapping? First of all, trainers are humans. We are creatures of habit. We often take the path of least resistance. And, when something works, we repeat it, over and over again. Many handicappers maintain a list of trainers and keep track of them for the previously mentioned reasons.
When you look at past performances, keep track of the trainer, too. You will soon find that one trainer does well with $24,000 claimers (Clm24000 or Clm24k), but is less successful with Allowance level horses. So, check those trainer stats and make notes. I run through a lot of legal pads and fine-tipped Sharpies keeping such notes.
At large tracks, like Hollywood Park or Santa Anita, workouts are carefully tracked and charted. Look at that trainer’s success with Clm24k horses, and you will find a pattern. Perhaps, every time that he runs a Clm24k that wins, he had that horse run a brief workout within ten days of the race.
Does this guarantee a win the next time out? No, but with each race you will learn more about the trainer. When this trainer hits a 20% win rate with his Clm24k horses, you are onto something good. You now possess knowledge that is shared by only 5% or 10% of the other bettors.
Congratulations! You now have an “edge.”
Does this trainer have a favorite jockey, one that seems to be around to ride horses that end up winning?
Congratulations! You now have another “edge.”
Now, if you have your trainer winning 20% of the time and his favorite jockey who also has a 20% win rate set to ride today in a Clm24k, what do you think will happen? I believe that you already know the answer to that one.
You are now handicapping and winning knowing nothing more than the class of the race, your 20% trainer and your 20% jockey. That’s it. You could almost feel confident without even looking at a program.
What was once some scribbled notes transformed themselves into a strong “edge,” which is now a winning system. This situation may only come up four times a week, so, in that regard, it is a “spot” play. But, it is “your” spot play. You found it, you followed it and you played it – and won.
I know some players in the Southern California circuit (SoCal) who do nothing but follow a list of trainers and keep it updated. In fact, this kind of angle is so strong that when a horse that fits the workout schedule is joined with a trainer/jockey success rate of 20% or higher, and that horse has a Morning Line (ML) of 3-1 to 8-1, then you are probably going to have a good day at the races. I certainly hope so.
I hope that you found this article both entertaining and perhaps educational, as well.
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Jim’s systems and selections are available by writing to: jim@ThoroRanch.com or visiting www.ThoroRanch.com. His highly-reviewed book, “Easy Money,” offers his top three systems, plus a $49 wager calculator for only $35. Please check it out.
