Del Mar Track 2010 -- Polytrack Update

Update by Toby Turrell

After a week of racing at DelMar the Polytrack has been fine tuned to peak performance levels by veteran track superintendent Rich Tedesco. In fact, Bob Bafferts top 2 horses Lookin At Lucky and Richards Kid have had the best workouts of their careers this week where the turf meets the surf at Delmar. There is very little bias as speed and closers are scoring victories at a pretty equal rate. The times are consistant both in the a.m. and p.m. for the races as was the goal of Tedesco. The only time I think we will see slower times is on Tuesday morning after the track has been freshly rennovated Monday. Thus far in the meet, I have only seen 1 horse vanned off in the afternoon who actually wasnt even a So Cal based runner. The morning activity has been as safe as you could hope for as I have yet to see the van and I am here 7 days a week. I think that as of the time of publishing for this article on Thursday the 29th of July I can say that this surface has passed ALL tests with flying colors since the one interuption we had last week. Horses are bouncing off the top of the Polytrack here in dynamite fashion in the mornings which shows that it is tight and ideally suited to most horses with efficient mechanics. If you take the par times for the workouts this morning--most of the claims of this article are validated. For example-your bullet works today were: 3f-35.2---4f-46.4---5f-58.2---6f-112.2......Race 3 on 7/28---winner "Capital Account" ran 109.1-115.1----most the other lower end clainers ran 110 and chage for the day Wed.

I have been monitoring the Polytrack each morning clocking nearly all the workers and have been reporting live form the pressbox each day for the races so I can verify the fact that the Polytrack here at Delmar since Rich Tescedo has taken over the maintenance is playing beautifully on every level that matters the most when it comes to a racing surface.

 

2009 Analysis and Review

 

Initially, many had anticipated that this year the Polytrack surface would resemble the way it was in 2007, the first year it was installed. However, after visiting the track on Thursday morning Turrell reported that the track was, in fact, very fast with no apparent anti-speed bias. “The word on the street was inaccurate. The surface was much tighter and quicker than everyone had anticipated…This track played very similarly to Keeneland’s track when I was clocking there in the springtime. It had a beautiful bounce to it. It had a very soft, spongy, foamy type feel to it... I had several five-eighths works and low 23 final quarters. If you go 59 and change, usually you think the track is fast. Not only did the horses go fast, but more importantly, they finished their last quarters in very fast time. I had a couple of horses go 23 and 1, which is like flying home. You can see it’s radically different from the impressions everyone had … As a clocker, you get chills and adrenaline when you see horses finishing five-eighths like they were today because usually that means big things … It was really a shock to me based on the things I was hearing the past few weeks before I came down here…. I think the track superintendent has adjusted the track right to between where it was the first year and the second year which would make it as close to ideal as you could ask for based on what I saw this morning.” 

 

Larry Zap, a handicapper and co-host of Race and Sports radio, agreed that the track is fast right now, but was cautiously optimistic about whether it will remain fast. “This year, in the few mornings I’ve been out there, it looks to be about as fast as it’s been. But we’ve had fast tracks in the morning and then they change it and it slows down in the afternoon, so the jury is out about what opening day is going to bring. But it is definitely a very fast-looking surface right now. Every horse that tries to get over it is getting over it…. It looks great. And I think they have a better handle, into the third year, on how to deal with the afternoon versus to the morning to keep the track consistent.”

 

Others are taking a wait-and-see approach, noting that there could be a shift for those who became accustomed to handicapping at Hollywood Park. “Tread lightly the first week as we have a different type of synthetic surface,” advised Rick Harris, a California handicapper with Calhorse.

 

 

Bob Ike, a handicapper who has covered the Southern California racing circuit for more than 20 years, recommends taking a business-as-usual approach regarding the Polytrack. “This will be the third year of racing on Polytrack, so there shouldn't be any big surprises this summer. I would recommend going back and reviewing the results and trends from the last two years but, basically, normal handicapping principles still apply.”

 

For people who are new to handicapping the Polytrack surface, Barry Meadow, author of Money Secrets at the Racetrack and full-time professional horseplayer offered a few tips. “Del Mar's website (dmtc.com) offers live paddock and other views. The site also offers a limited database under the heading Polycapping, which includes information about every winner since the Polytrack surface debuted in 2007. Remember that Polytrack is different from the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park, so don't overrate horses coming in off big Hollywood Park races.” Visit the polycapping database.

 

Ike adds that this track lends itself to the "horses for courses" angle. According to Ike, “Some horses love it, others hate it. The one that stands out most in my mind is Rush With Thunder, who won three races over the brand new Polytrack surface in 2007.”

 

 

Del Mar is one of several tracks that installed a synthetic racing surface following a mandate by the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB). Since the installation, the surface has shown variances and the track appears to be trying to find the perfect formula. Zap seems to applaud the effort. “I’m looking for a fair track and I think that’s what the people at Del Mar are trying to create.” However, several industry professionals, including Zap acknowledge that it has been, and could remain, a bumpy road. According to Zap, “Two years ago everyone seemed comfortable with the track in the morning and then in the afternoon came and it slowed down and they needed to figure out… it would change.” DeJulio laments the ongoing tinkering that he thinks makes the track less consistent. “As far as the track surface, I am anxious to see how the Poly has handled the year. We saw a major difference between the first and second year. The track was actually quite kind to us for the first three weeks of the meet in 2008, but then it changed. Watering and maintenance were altered and it became more and more inconsistent. Personally, I believe they should just leave it alone, but tinkering has always been mankind's Achilles' heel. Last summer we saw times that made sense and riders weren't so quick to grab hold and tow-rope the field. However, when the track started changing due to overwatering, it got slow on some days, and it became worse than the 2007 season of the Poly[track] era.” 

 

Last year, DeJuio saw negative patters to the adjustment process. “By rule of thumb, the Wednesday and Thursday cards were run on the slowest surface of the week…The whole idea doesn't make a whole lot of sense since the cheaper horses run on Wednesdays and Thursdays.” DeJulio explained, “Cheaper horses, can be slow, or have soundness problems, and thus would be hindered over a slower surface… horses with soundness problems would have to work harder over the track and thus stress their already fragile limbs.”

 

Overall though, many handicappers saw a positive change to the Polytrack surface last year.   According to Turrell, “What happened was that they sped the track up halfway through last year’s season and made it a lot faster than it had been, and tighter and firmer than it was the first year.” Zap witnessed similar changes. “Last year for whatever reason, they were able to make it a truer Polytrack and it changed. It sped up dramatically. And handicappers were happier because it played a lot more like Santa Anita’s or Hollywood Park’s synthetic track. And you were getting a lot more 1:08 and change six-furlongs races as opposed to the fastest horses two years ago that were going 1:11 for six furlongs. They were 3 seconds slow.   There is no rhyme or reason for most folks to figure out how to handicap that…Last year it became a fairer racetrack and you could win it from any part of the racetrack, I thought.”

 

 

Concerning the Del Mar jockeys, three names come up repeatedly. “Look for the big three--Rafael Bejarano, Garrett Gomez, and Joel Rosario--to once again dominate the jockeys’ race” remarked Meadow. “Last year, Bejarano had the most wins but Gomez led in money won and win percentage (21%)” he added. “I think those three guys control probably 50% of the live mounts,” estimated Zap.   In fact, almost everyone we spoke with named these three jockeys. However, many also pointed out that the other Del Mar jockeys are likely to be very competitive. “There are probably 15 riders right on their heels.   It’s one of the deepest jockey colonies we’ve had in CA racing” according to Turrell.   

 

Zap also anticipated great performance from the jockeys because of the Del Mar location. “Jockeys are happier at Del Mar. They come down here like the rest of us and it’s sort of a working vacation. They feel the crowd’s presence more. You know, 3,000 people on a Thursday afternoon at Hollywood Park is a lot different than 10,000 or 12,000 on a Thursday at Del Mar; then you get into the weekends at Del Mar and you’ve got 25,000-30,000. The jockeys… They ride harder. I’m not saying that they don’t ride hard year round. But they seem more enthusiastic; they seem fresher; they seem to be on their bellies more. I personally trust the races more down here…. I trust the riders’ enthusiasm more. It’s like big race days at any track, you feel the excitement almost every day …. The jockeys feel that and they rise to the occasion.”

 

While it is helpful to know which jockeys are hot, from a handicapping perspective it is even better to know which jockeys are likely to deliver big wins for bettors, which is often different. When asked specifically for nuggets that would be helpful to handicappers, Zap reframed the question. “What’s going to help a handicapper come to Del Mar and hit a $28 horse?” After considering the question, he responded. “ I want hungry, experienced jockeys. Let me start there. Corey Nakatani -- he knows that Rosario and Bejarano have passed him. He’s not a kid anymore…. Cory Nakatani and Victor Espinoza – those two guys – they are out to prove something this meet. I think they are working hard…. I want to catch Nakatani and Espinoza on 15- to 20-to1-shots this summer. That’s a must for me… All of the sudden, those two guys are not in the top five and I think they have something to truly prove. Look for them… watch for those two guys when they are riding smaller barns, because they are hungry… maybe some smaller barns you’re not used to seeing them on, and they’re going to be live for a price. “- Larry

 

 

When talking to handicappers about trainers, several names came up repeatedly, but the consensus on who to watch or who to favor was not as strong as for jockeys. For example, Meadow, saw John Sadler as a frontrunner. “Among trainers, John Sadler not only had the most earnings and most wins, but his starters finished first or second an amazing 47% of the time. Other trainers with at least 20% wins and 25 starters included Mike Mitchell, Jeff Mullins, Jerry Hollendorfer, Carla Gaines, Eric Kruljac, Mike Puype, Cliff Sise, Howard Zucker (who won with six of his ten starters), and Mike Machowsky. Generally, trainers off to big starts in the first few days stay hot, while the cold ones stay cold.” Absent from Meadow’s list was Bob Baffert. Unlike Meadow, Zap is careful not to overlook Baffert, “You can say that every year that Bob Baffert is loaded with 2-year-olds…he’s going to have by far the most 2-year-olds….. Bob Baffert is going to show up here and he’s going to mean business.” 

 

Turrell also includes Baffert in his list. “As far as the trainers…Bob Baffert...Trainers that have been successful in the past, look to be successful again including Mike Mitchell, John Sadler, and Doug O’Neil.

 

However, for value handicapping, Zap brings attention to two female trainers. “I’m going to stick with Carla Gaines and Kathy Walsh. Here’s a game that is dominated by men and you have two powerful trainers in Southern California who are women, who have their hands on really nice stock. They have good owners. And you know what, they get the job done. Don’t ever be afraid of backing either one of those two women because they’ve proven themselves over the years. But I just can’t believe what I’ve seen over the past few days, how good those two ladies’ horses look. I keep spotting them. Another Carla Gaines that looks like a runner; another Kathy Walsh that looks ready to roll…. I just think you want to watch both of those two women this summer because all of their horses just look like they’re ready.”

 

 

Two juicy tips from Barry Meadow are: 1)“The key post bias is to avoid outside posts (8 and up) in route races on the Polytrack. Last year, these outside posts won fewer than 5% of the opportunities” and 2)“Big handles mean big possibilities, but wait for carryovers before diving in to the pick 6 and super high 5. Last year, a two-day carryover in the latter bet yielded an amazing $437,000 payoff.”

 

DeJulio believes that players should remember that the horses’ home field, or home court advantage, isn't nearly as strong as the Hollywood Park train-and-race angle is.

 

Bob Ike reminds players, “The stakes schedule has been revised, with the Pacific Classic and Del Mar Futurity moving from traditional dates to Labor Day weekend, which features 10 stakes races over the three-day period.”

 

Zap thinks that certain horses thrive in the beach climate of Del Mar. But the horses aren’t the only ones. “I do better down there… I can breathe… and I’m going to assume that it affects horses the same way.” 

 

Turrell brings attention to the Del Mar atmosphere, “As far as ambiance and things like that… Let’s just say that Keeneland wins the prize in the Springtime for the prettiest young crowd, and Del Mar certainly wins the prize for the summertime.”    

 

Ike’s suggestion is, “besides the top-quality racing, have fun.”